Sunday, January 21, 2018

Got asked for a quick lineup

Admittedly, cash games are hard on a two game slate, and I'm playing very very little this week, but here is my lineup I am rolling with.


Friday, January 12, 2018

Divisional Round Playoffs- Two separate slates

This kind of sucks. FanDuel broke the slates up into two different slates. While I'm not a fan of the move, there are still opportunities to play the four game slate.

Like I said in the previous post last week, I am playing these slates more for the entertainment value of playing the game. I would treat it as that, as the edge is very minimal compared to the regular season.

Let's start with Le'Veon Bell, I'm playing him this week, but I think it will be a huge risk against this elite Jacksonville defense. The reason for this is that from a pricing standpoint. I don't think in a 0.5 PPR he may not hit value against this Jacksonville defense that is the best in football especially with the athletes that the Jaguars have in Yannick Ngakoue, Calais Campbell and Marcell Dareus along the defensive line.

I am fading Leonard Fournette, I just don't like the trend for him the second-half of the year. The NFL season is a very long season for a rookie, and he just does not seem to have the same burst that he had early on in the year.

Bankroll

From a bankroll standpoint, I'm playing $600 per slate which is severely down from my normal exposure. The reason for this is that they are primarily short slates and I am treating these more as entertainment than anything else.

Last week was not great, not horrible, was slightly down.

Starting bankroll:$12,624
Last Week Profit/Loss: ($220)
New Bankroll: $12,404

Saturday Only Slate-


Saturday/Sunday Slate



Saturday, January 6, 2018

Wildcard Playoffs- Strategy and Lineup

Playoff football especially adding in DFS can be a ton of fun as you are watching essentially every play of every game. However, the Wildcard round is always a dilemma for me on how much I want to play or should play. The divisional rounds I will typically play the normal amount, but for the Wildcard round I typically scale it back just a little bit.

Bankroll-

Last week was a week where I just lost to the rake, I actually late swapped Phil Dawson into half my lineups instead of Giorgio Tavechhio which Dawson carried my team on what really was pure luck.

Current bankroll $12,624

This week, I'm likely only going to have around $900 invested which is about half of what I normally would have. The reason for this is I believe everyone's lineup is that as you will see in my lineup, I believe everyone will have a similar build this week on FanDuel.

Lineup-

On FanDuel this week, I believe that the lineups will look generally very similar in nature. The ability to pay up for both Todd Gurley and Leonard Fournette is relatively easy without much cap penalty as there are not a ton of great elite options at other positions. If you want Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, or Travis Kelce there are ways to do that with going to Jonathan Stewart at running back who is in a good spot this week.

Below is my lineup for this week. I think it will be relatively popular, but I think there still is an edge this week.




Sunday, December 31, 2017

Updated Lineup- The Dilemma at Running Back

Malcolm Brown-
One player who has intrigued me from the start of this week is Malcolm Brown. I went back and watched the film on the Rams this morning and I am in on this guy. He runs hard, and will get a majority of the carries in this game.

Derrick Henry-
The more I look into it, the more I like Derrick Henry as well, I went back this morning and watched week 3 of the preseason when Henry was the lead back with Murray out, they did not take Henry out on third down which is highly encouraging.

The problem and dilemma I am facing is that can I start both Brown and Henry is it too much risk?

Dion Lewis-
Dion Lewis looks like he's the only healthy back in their backfield, as Rex Burkhead, James White and Mike Gillislee are all out this week and the Patriots are 15 point favorites. Brandon Bolden could factor in a little bit here, but I expect it will be a lot of Lewis.

Here is where I'm currently at with a roster. I am fairly certain this is where I will end up but will check the inactives over the next 30 minutes and post if anything breaks that is unexpected.


Saturday, December 30, 2017

Week 17 and Current Lineup

This week has been brutal with all the injuries that are currently out there as well as all the resting situations. 

Going a little bit lighter this week than normal. Going about 14% of my bankroll instead of the typical 18-20% just because there is so much unknown this week. Also, I will be playing primarily 50/50 contests instead of head to heads for the reasons I posted in the previous blog but mostly because someone will make a mistake in a 50/50 and take players that are not active. 

Current Bankroll: $12,804
Amount Invested: $1,800 (14.1%)

Current Lineup



Here is my list for cash games of players that I'm considering at the moment. 

QB- 
Russell Wilson
Tom Brady
Jameis Winston
Cam Newton
Kirk Cousins 

RB- 
Kenyan Drake
Bilal Powell
Malcolm Brown
Dion Lewis
Mark Ingram

WR- 
Julio Jones 
Mike Evans
Keenan Allen
Michael Thomas
Marquise Goodwin
T.Y. Hilton

TE-
Rob Gronkowski

K- 
Stephen Gostkowski
Wil Lutz
Nick Rose

D
Cleveland (Simply too cheap)

Friday, December 29, 2017

Week 17 Strategy and Bankroll Management

This is it. First of all, I want to give you a big thank you for following along this week. Let's end the season on a high note. While we will still be having this blog for the playoffs, it isn't the same as having a full slate of an NFL normal week.

Bankroll Management Advice

This week is different than any other week on the year. I am advising you to NOT do head to heads and instead do 50/50's which is completely different than what I have been trying to tell you guys to do all season. Why? The reason for this relatively simple. In a 50/50, there will be people who will start lineups that are essentially dead. Someone will make a mistake and take players from teams that are not playing or will not play the full game. In a head-to-head this could happen, and I don't have a ton of data to support this, but it seems there is always a few who do this in 50/50's.

I'm still entering the same amount as I normally do as I feel that in 50/50's there is a decent size edge this upcoming week. I will have around 18% of my bankroll in contests which I will post a subsequent post with my cash lineup strategy.

Strategy-

There are four groups of team's that I try to identify this week.

Target Starters
Team's with everything to play for- These are team's that have their playoffs on the line

Teams that have been out of contention for a while- These teams are in evaluation mode and will continue to target their starters.

Avoid Starters-
Teams that have nothing to play for- With the exception of New England, I am avoiding teams that have absolutely nothing to play for as there is no history of these players playing.

Teams that have recently been eliminated- These teams often don't show up after being recently eliminated as they put so much into every week and become de-motivated week 17.