Sunday, October 21, 2018

Week 7 Cash Lineup

Bankroll advice-
As much as I love this week, I'm not going above the 13% range that I typically go with for % of bankroll. We're back over the starting mark and in the profit zone after a horrible start to the season.

Current bankroll $10,450
Amount in play- $1,400

I have been talked into Jermaine Kearse due to Quincy Enunwa being out. Both John Lee and Ryan Hester (fellow analysts on the Power Grid for those that don't follow that forum) and have brought him up multiple times in their articles.



As a bonus, here is my favorite GPP lineup I have today on FanDuel.

Saturday, October 20, 2018

Heading into Week 7

Power Grid-
We are creating a contest for Power Grid listeners, go to for some details and a chance to win $50.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uakE6487eo&t=1s

I'm in love with this week. There are so many ways to go that this is the first real cash game week. The first couple of weeks quarterback has basically been either you have to start this player, or you have to pick one or the other player.

Weather-
There are two weather games that I am trying to avoid players due to high winds
Carolina @ Philadelphia
Minnesota @ NYJ- (Adam Thielen is the one exception to this)

Thoughts on the slate:

I love this Chicago New England game to be a shootout.

All Players Cash and GPP viable unless otherwise noted.

Quarterback-
Tom Brady- DK GPP Only
Mitchell Trubisky- DK
Joe Flacco- DK (Cash Only), I don't think he has the upside in a GPP
Baker Mayfield- FD Cash/GPP and DK GPP
Jameis Winston- FD
Matthew Stafford- DK/FD

Running Back

This week it seems pretty easy. In cash, I am going with Todd Gurley and Nick Chubb on FanDuel and DraftKings. I am avoiding Chubb in GPP's due to his ownership and there is some risk that the Browns will limit him and go with a heavy dosage of Mayfield in GPP with the thought that the Browns won't fully unleash Chubb week 1.

Peyton Barber is extremely cheap as well and the Browns linebacking group is pretty banged up.

Other running backs-
Sony Michel- DK and FD. James White is simply too expensive on DraftKings, but could be a fine low-owned GPP play.
Tarik Cohen- DraftKings GPP
Ezekiel Elliott- GPP
LeSean McCoy- GPP

Wide Receiver
Mike Evans- I firmly believe Denzel Ward will shadow DeSean Jackson as it would be a significant size discrepency if he shadowed Evans. T.J. Carrie is sliding to the outside with the injury to E.J. Gaines who is 210 pounds but is a slot corner moving outside which is something I want to take advantage of.

Robert Woods- Cooper Kupp is out which means Robert Woods will slide to the slot. I love Robert Woods as a slot receiver and think it's his natural fit.

Taylor Gabriel- Turning into the number one receiver in this Bears offense. SHould be in a good spot this week and is still too cheap

Marquise Goodwin- Goodwin is the guy that did not get the proper price adjustment due to playing on Monday Night last week. He's too cheap on both sites.

Keke Coutee- DK, should see a significant role with Jalen Ramsey locking down Deandre Hopkins

Adam Thielen- FD/DK Cash- Don't love him in GPP due to the weather, but he's too consistent at this point and going up against a bad Jets secondary.

Michael Crabtree/John Brown- I prefer Crabtree in cash and Brown in GPP, but the matchup is good as discussed with Flacco earlier.

Tight End-
David Njoku- Cash price is still too cheap
O.J. Howard- GPP with the Browns linebacker issues

Defense-
I'm playing Cleveland everywhere once again as I pretty much have done all year.

Sunday, October 14, 2018

Today is a good day

This is one of those days that make it all worth it.

Don't think I'll have any high GPP finishes, but should win nearly all my cash games.

Updated Cash Game Lineup- Latavius Murray

Dalvin Cook was expected to be on a snap count this week. He is now inactive, which means I'm going to make some changes to get Latavius Murray in my lineup. Nothing major, it is an easy fit downgrading Howard to Murray and upgrading Conner to Gordon. Still wish I had $100 extra for Dalton.


Week 6 Cash Lineup

This week is hard. The question I keep going back to is whether to play Julio Jones on FanDuel. Where I've landed is that I am going to play him as if he is as highly owned as most expect, I want him to at least be a block for my opponents.

I love this lineup, I wish I was able to find $100 more for Andy Dalton or Tyler Boyd (over Howard), but I'm not really willing to sacrifice any other position to do so. You could go Conner down to Elliott and Winston up to Dalton, but I think the drop from Conner to Elliott is a tough one in cash. If I were to be able to accept Elliott in cash, I would upgrade Jordan Howard to Tyler Boyd first.

Putting a normal 13% of my bankroll in play this week, just because I think everyone thinks this is hard while I've found a lineup I really like.




Saturday, October 13, 2018

Week 6 Thoughts

First off, if you haven't checked out this week's DFS Power Grid, I highly encourage you to check it out. If we reach 7k views which we have done twice this season, I'll be having a giveaway where someone will play a free contest with the Power Grid gang to win some cash.

Power Grid Week 6

Onto Week 6

Week 6 is a tough week. I manage the rushing and passing matchups that get sent out to Footballguys free email list each week and this is the first week where we only have 1 team that has a "Great" rushing matchup that is on the main slate which is Tampa who we would not really want to start either of their running backs to begin with.

The biggest question is whether you want to pay up for Todd Gurley this week. There is a lot of safety in doing so as the Broncos just got shredded by the Jets last week, but this is still a unit that was the one of the best in 2017 was a top-five unit up until last week. Gurley is matchup proof, and on FanDuel he is more attractive than on DraftKings where his price is extremely prohibitive.

QB-
Matt Ryan- Cash and GPP DK/FD
Jameis Winston- Cash only DK
Andy Dalton- Cash (FD), GPP (FD/DK )
Andrew Luck- Cash (DK) GPP (FD/DK)
Case Keenum- will have to throw 50+ times and is too cheap on FanDuel
Baker Mayfield- GPP only

RB-
Todd Gurley- Cash and GPP
Melvin Gordon- This is probably the route that I am going this week, especially on DraftKings
Marshawn Lynch- Cash and GPP
Bilal Powell everywhere if Crowell is out
Chris Carson- Cash
Jordan Howard- FD-cash

WR-
What to do with Atlanta receivers-
This is tough, I really like all three receivers, my favorite is Mohammed Sanu of the three just because his price is so low. I'm probably not going to have any Julio this week which scares me and will likely keep me up most of Saturday night.

If you're going to play Julio, I suggest doing it on DraftKings, where it is more viable due to the 100 yard bonus that is in play. The issue is that he will likely be one of if not the most popular player on DraftKings which for GPP's he is a solid fade for me.

Will Fuller- FD-GPP only
Mike Evans- FD-cash
Taylor Gabriel- DK-Cash/GPP
Michael Crabtree- FD/DK- Cash and GPP
Antonio Brown- FD/DK GPP only
Jarvis Landry- DK- cash
Keke Coutee- DK- cash
Quincy Enunwa- FD/DK cash

TE-
Cameron Brate- FD- Cash/GPP
David Njoku- DK- Cash/GPP
Nick Vannett- DK- GPP

Defense-
What does Cleveland have to do to raise the cost of their defense? They have 15 turnovers so far this season when the next closest team has just 11. This is a far too talented unit for their price.



Monday, October 8, 2018

Why Play DFS

I've been meaning to write this blog for a while, and the reality is that it should have been written a long time ago. The purpose of this blog is to show why I play DFS and why you should find your own style that works for you that you enjoy.

Background to the story:
I've played DFS for eight years now, and several years ago thought about doing it full-time as I made as much as I was making at my full-time job. The reality is that I could never pull the trigger on doing it full-time for one simple reason. Treating this as a full-time career would become a job just like anything else in life. Even when I signed on to Footballguys to be a writer/content manager part-time I was nervous about coming on as it takes the fun out of the games with the stress of writing and giving your insights on a week to week basis.

The reality is that as the years have gone by, I've seen hundreds of people who were once playing very high volumes disappear. This is the dark side of DFS that no one really talks about as for some reason there are ego's involved and people think they have to prove something by having horrendous bankroll management. I can list several examples of people who were playing less than $100 a week who won hundreds of thousands of dollars or even a million plus and then thought that based on that one lucky lineup they should try to put tens of thousands of dollars each week.

A significant amount of people think that they have to justify their play and have to post screenshots of them winning a significant amount of money in order to get people to follow them. The reality is that a significant number of people in this industry lose a lot, this is why I've found what I feel is my niche, and have been profitable in 6 of the 7 years so far.

I was talking to someone the other day who said that they wanted to get in the writing industry, so they felt they need to play a high volume to get recognized. I would warn everyone against this as it is largely an outdated misconception that you have to play high dollar amounts to get recognized. I can tell you at Footballguys we've hired a variety of all players with some of the highest volume players in the industry to guys who play small dollars. If there is interest, I can write recommendations for anyone looking to get into the industry.

Why I Primarily Play Cash Games

I get this question at least once a week. Cash games have become harder and harder to win at consistently, why do you play primarily cash games and not primarily play GPP's. The reality is it's what is fun for me.

Every Sunday at 1PM EST is like Christmas morning when you're a kid. I get to open up each Head to Head matchup and see who my opponents have decided to play and dissect each lineup.

The reality is that even though I have won several GPP's, I have never succumbed to the lineup optimizers and mass multi entries. I build 5-10 lineups each week for GPP's and that's really it. The reason for this is two-fold

1) I have done the mass multi-entry thing and it is simply not fun for me. I find it stressful as I watch Scott Hanson show every touchdown and thinking the worst every time some obscure player scores a touchdown.

2) What most people don't tell you is that while we see all the time someone who has 150 lineups in a tournament winning the tournament, there are a number of mass multi-entry lineups losing a significant amount of their investment each week.

Summary
The overall message is to play what you enjoy at a dollar amount that you are comfortable with. Don't try to prove anything to anyone.