Sunday, December 30, 2018

Updated Favorite GPP Lineup


Updated Cash lineup

So many news breaking as of late. Here's where I currently stand.


Favorite GPP Lineup

My cash lineup is my favorite GPP lineup this week, so here's my second favorite.


Week 17 Current Lineup

At the moment, my lineup is below. Will update it accordingly if there is any Davante Adams or Saints news that is concerning.







Week 17 Thoughts

Week 17 is a weird week

Quarterback-
At the quarterback position, I'm just paying up for Patrick Mahomes and not even thinking about anyone else. The Chiefs still have full reason to play this game and we typically see teams rest that do not have a bye week. I think that Mahomes should close to if not the entire game on the field and the only reason he would not be out there is if the Chiefs got a big lead which would be his doing.

Other players in consideration (In order of favorite):
Aaron Rodgers
Lamar Jackson
Ben Roethlisberger
Tom Brady

Running Back
This is where we get the value this week, as the reality is that there are not many spots where running backs will see the full amount of touches.

Royce Freeman-
With Phillip Lindsay out this week, Freeman gets the benefit of having played on Monday Night and the sites not raising his price making him almost a must-start this week. The matchup isn't great, but he should see 15+ touches at least.

Saquon Barkley-
The Giants have nothing to play for, but it also appears that they are not going to be resting anyone this week either, so Barkley should be one of the few top-end running backs who will see his full allotment of carries going up against a Dallas defense that looks like they're going to be resting everyone as the Giants are 6 point favorites.

Other Considerations-
Chris Carson
Jamaal Williams
James Conner
Peyton Barber
C.J Anderson
Dwayne Washington

Wide Receiver-
The wide receiver is entirely news dependent this week.

Davante Adams looks like he'll go and he's in a tremendous spot if a positive report comes out in the morning that he is going to play a significant amount of the game. The Packers are still trying to win, and this is a spot with Equinemeous St. Brown looking doubtful, this is a great spot for Adams.

On the other side of the coin, Antonio Brown looks like he might miss, and if he does, JuJu Smith-Schuster immediately becomes the top play of the day. Even based on what we know, JuJu needs to be strongly considered in your lineup.

Other Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill
Robby Anderson
Sterling Shepard
Jordy Nelson
DeAndre Hopkins

Tight End-
I'm playing Travis Kelce in every lineup. Oakland has been one of the worst teams in the NFL against tight ends in a must-win game for Kansas City. There is plenty of value available to spend down elsewhere.

Saturday, December 29, 2018

Week 17 Bankroll Update

First and foremost I'm going to start this post by saying this. BE CAREFUL. There is an advantage to be had in Week 17, but it requires a ton of work and even then can be difficult as if a player tweaks anything they're done for the game. The good news is this is not the last week of this blog, we will be going through at least the conference championships and maybe the Super Bowl. 

Bankroll Update:
We're back over the starting mark for I think the first time this season? Maybe did it one other week, but then had a losing week?

Bankroll Last week- $9,666
Net Gain- $549
New Bankroll- $10,215.


I'm limiting my bankroll this week to just $1,000 in play which is the lowest I've had all season. Ultimately, it's a tough week that can be ugly at times and there is no sense in going big on the last week of the year.



Sunday, December 23, 2018

Overall great day


Yahoo
Finished 40th in Yahoo's Million Dollar Baller tournament. Doesn't count towards the FanDuel bankroll, but overall solid.

FanDuel-
Put up 145.44 with the lineup I put out, which puts me back above the $10,000 mark for the year. Won about $550 on FanDuel.

Todd Gurley is Out

Make sure to swap him out.

Favorite GPP Lineup


Week 16 Cash Game Lineup


Saturday, December 22, 2018

Week 16 Overview

Quarterback-

At the quarterback position this week there are really two choices in cash who coincidentally are both in the same game. The choice depends on the rest of your roster build, as you can either spend up or go down.

Nick Foles-
Foles is likely going to be the chalk this week going up against a Texans secondary that has struggled as of late. The Texans have allowed 300+ yards in three of their last four games and allowed Sam Darnold to throw for 253 last week. This is a unit that has allowed two passing touchdowns in three of their last four games as well. Foles' price remains too cheap on both DraftKings and FanDuel at just $4,700 and $6,000 respectively. He will likely be the highest owned cash game quarterback on both sites.

DeShaun Watson-
The matchup is perfect for Watson, as he's facing the Eagles who have allowed 269 yards passing or more in every game except one since Week 4. The one time they did not was the Redskins game in which Mark Sanchez played a majority of the game. The Eagles secondary has been horrendous as of late as they have been decimated with injury. The only question for Watson is whether he has the upside to justify the price as over his last 8 games he has gone over 20 fantasy points in just four of those games. With no Lamar Miller, the Texans will look to Watson's arm to lead them against the Eagles.

Other options-
Andrew Luck- FanDuel/DraftKings GPP
Dak Prescott- FanDuel/DraftKings GPP
Ben Roethlisberger- FanDuel/DraftKings Cash/GPP

Running Back-

Ezekiel Elliott needs to be in strong consideration for all of your lineups this week as he is in a perfect matchup. The Buccaneers have allowed four of the last five running backs they have faced to go for over 100 yards. The defensive line is good for Tampa Bay, but their linebackers are a major issue. Elliott has been utilized in the passing game as well as he has 25 receptions over his last three games.

Other Options-
Saquon Barkley- DraftKings Cash/GPP due to price
Marlon Mack- FanDuel/DraftKings Cash/GPP
Elijah McGuire- DraftKings GPP, FanDuel Cash/GPP
Christian McCaffrey- FanDuel/DraftKings Cash/GPP
Leonard Fournette- FanDuel/DraftKings GPP
Nick Chubb- FanDuel/DraftKings GPP
C.J. Anderson- FanDuel/DraftKings Cash/GPP

Wide Receiver-
There are a number of great options this week on the high-end as DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams, and Michael Thomas are all in fantastic matchups. The best play of this group, however, is DeAndre Hopkins going up against the Eagles. Keke Coutee and Lamar Miller are both out this week, so it is all Hopkins in this one. We've seen the Eagles give up some of the biggest games to opponents in giving up 10/217/3 to Amari Cooper and have allowed 70 yards receiving or more to 7 receivers over their last six games.

Other options-
Davante Adams- FanDuel/DraftKings Cash/GPP
Robert Woods- FanDuel/DraftKings Cash
Robby Anderson-  FanDuel/DraftKings Cash/GPP
Josh Reynolds- 19 targets over last two games FanDuel/Draftkings Cash/GPP
Sterling Shepard- FanDuel/DraftKings GPP
Stefon Diggs- FanDuel Cash/GPP DraftKings GPP

Tight End-
Eric Ebron is basically the must play on FanDuel at just $6,100 as he's too cheap, he's the first player I'm starting with on every lineup.

On DraftKings, there are a few players, it's really between Zach Ertz, Evan Engram, David Njoku, and Blake Jarwin. My favorite GPP play is Evan Engram and my favorite cash guy is Zach Ertz.




Week 16 Let's Finish Strong

Last week look great for a while, but no Jaylen Samuels along with Saquon struggling had me at slightly negative for the week on FanDuel. I was highly positive on Yahoo in their Million Dollar contest and they are running it again this week. While that does not count towards the bankroll as it is just a FanDuel tally, it made for a decent week.

Bankroll Last week- $9,876
Net Loss- ($210)
New Bankroll- $9,666

With two positive weeks, can easily get back to even or positive on the season.

Write-up coming shortly

Sunday, December 16, 2018

Favorite GPP Lineups

This week is hard for GPP's just like it is for cash games.

I'm going to give you two this week, the first is safer, the second is more risky.


First lineup- New England Stack with JuJu on the other side

Second lineup- I love Calvin Ridley's upside this week with Julio on Patrick Peterson for most of this game.



Gotta finish this year strong- Bankroll update.

Break-even is in sight after a rough start to the year. After last week's big week and the second one in three weeks, we're now close to break even which is not something I would have thought we would be saying six weeks ago when we were down $1,500 or so.

Starting Bankroll- $10,000
Current Bankroll- $9,824
Net Profit- ($176)


Pricing is soft this week. Week 15 Cash Lineup

There just are not a lot of ways to spend salary this week.  The concern I have is whether this week becomes too chalky as everyone just ends up spending up for both Barkley and Elliott, which is a shame as this is a great week for guys like Dalvin Cook, David Johnson, Joe Mixon, Chris Carson.

QB- Tom Brady seems like everyone is going there.

RB- Will everyone just pay up for both Barkley and Elliott? Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, and Jaylen Samuels are all in great spots, but I think when it comes to final builds people will pay up for Barkley and Elliott. 

WR- Amari Cooper will be nearly 100% owned as his price is ludicrous. Sterling Shepard will also see significant ownership due to the Beckham injury. 

TE- Eric Ebron or Jared Cook are how I'm looking this week. It really depends on the health of T.Y. Hilton. If Hilton is out, Ebron shoots up to number one on my list as Ebron saw 22 targets in the two games that Hilton was out earlier this year. If Hilton is active, Jared Cook is my guy.

Subject to change based on the T.Y Hilton news








Saturday, December 15, 2018

If you're going to play one contest this week, play Yahoo

Yahoo is hosting a $1M contest for $20 this week and it might be the best contest of all time. They are guaranteeing $250k in overlay, meaning they are only accepting $750k of entries and paying out $1M in prizes.

If you're going to play one contest this week, it should be this one. A lot of us have been frustrated by the rake that DraftKings and FanDuel have had over the years, well this is a way to band together and support a third site because if it doesn't fill, I'm sure they will never do anything similar.



https://sports.yahoo.com/dailyfantasy/contest/3751151

If you've never played on Yahoo before enter code yahoo25 for $25 in free play.

Saturday, December 8, 2018

Week 14 Thoughts

Can't believe we're already in Week 14.

I gave the warning last week, but this week the point remains the same. In cash, there has been enough injury news that has opened up, that you can easily build a lineup that you love. Be careful in not to go above your typical week's bankroll.

Quarterback-

This week, the quarterback is going to determine your success in cash. Up until yesterday, it was relatively an easy decision as I was going with Jameis Winston. However, with the rain concerns in Tampa Bay, I'll keep monitoring to decide if I go that route.

This week, where I'm going to end up is either Jameis if the weather gets better or Lamar Jackson who provides a nice floor with his running ability having rushed 70 yards or more in his three games as a starter and two touchdowns in those three games. This is a game in which he'll be looked to do a ton this week against the high powered Kansas City offense.

Other options-
Patrick Mahomes- I get the argument in cash, I just can't do it. This is one of the worst matchups that Mahomes will have all season and while he should be fine, the opportunity cost is too much in cash.

Aaron Rodgers- No McCarthy holding him back could do wonders for Rodgers this week

Cam Newton- Cleveland's defense is not a great one and has largely been propped up on turnovers and sacks at critical moments making it a fine fantasy defense but not a great real-life defense. This is an opportunity for Newton to exploit this defense.

Running Back-

Saquon Barkley

With Odell Beckham being out, I'm playing Saquon Barkley nearly everywhere. Barkley had moderate success mostly through the air the last time these two teams met, but since that game against the Giants, the Redskins run defense has largely struggled as they have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs and have allowed six running backs rush for 60 yards or more in their last five games. Barkley seems to be running harder than he did early in the season not pausing to wait for holes to develop nearly as much as early this season.

Christian McCaffrey-
McCaffrey's productivity over the last few games has been outstanding and he represents the new era of the NFL. The Browns have struggled against good running backs allowing 100 total yards or more to Lamar Miller (115), Joe Mixon (145), Kareem Hunt (141), James Conner twice (187, 210), Melvin Gordon (150), Marshawn Lynch (157), and Alvin Kamara came in at 99 yards.

Jaylen Samuels vs Jeff Wilson vs Justin Jackson-
This is going to be the asked question of the day. I love Justin Jackson, especially on FanDuel. Coach Anthony Lynn talked about how Austin Ekeler is starting to wear down a little bit and the matchup is perfect for the Chargers this week for Jackson to have a big game. Jackson is a tremendous GPP play and if you're scared off of it for cash, just go Samuels. I totally get the perspective of just canceling out Samuels and moving on as he will be extremely popular. I may do it myself just so my week isn't determined by which split carry back gets into the end zone.

Now onto Jeff Wilson, on FanDuel there is no way I'm going with him in cash as his price is too prohibitive. On DraftKings at his price, he's intriguing. The matchup is horrible against Denver, but that could play into Wilson's favor for the dump off passes this week. My DraftKings cash game lineup currently has both Wilson and Samuels.

Other Running Backs-
Alvin Kamara- There is always the risk with the Saints but in a great spot this week.

Ezekiel Elliott- I get the love as the Eagles defense is wearing down and Elliott has been on a tear, I prefer Barkley and McCaffrey over him this week.

Aaron Jones- Tremendous GPP play, was a bust last week but in a good matchup.

Phillip Lindsay- Solid GPP play, have to think that he comes back to reality at some point however as his yards per carry is not sustainable and isn't playing a role in the passing game.

Wide Receiver-

I want to love Michael Thomas this week, but just can't get behind it. The ankle concerns me and the lack of production of late has me worried at his price. The matchup is a good one, but so is the matchup on the ground game for the Saints.

Keenan Allen- Favorite cash gameplay of the day as the volume is just so incredibly high and is seeing touchdown opportunities having scored in three straight.

Davante Adams- Adams is my favorite GPP play of the week and is borderline cash viable. He's faced horrendous matchups three of the last four weeks with Xavien Howard, Patrick Peterson and the Xavier Rhodes and gets a favorable matchup this week in Robert Alford. It's possible that Adams surpasses Allen in my cash lineups when it's all said and done.

Sterling Shepard- This is a FanDuel only play, but at $5,200 he's far too cheap and will be the number one receiver for the Giants this week with most of the offense running through him and Saquon Barkley.

Adam Thielen- Seattle has allowed number one receivers to torch them as of late and seven receivers over the last six games have caught 89 or more yards. Diggs is also in a great spot this week.

Other Receivers-
DeAndre Hopkins- DraftKings only as he's too cheap in a good matchup

Adam Humphries- Just remains too consistent for his price going up against P.J. Williams

Larry Fitzgerald- Favorable matchup against the Lions who have struggled against slot receivers and Fitzgerald will get a majority of the targets with Christian Kirk out.

D.J. Moore- Denzel Ward is out, and the Browns don't have anyone fast enough to keep up with the speedster.

Zay Jones- Has shown recent upside as of late, but is more of a GPP play as he could land a 0 very easily on any given week.

Tight End-

Two ways to play it this week in cash. Spend up on Eric Ebron in cash or go down to Vance McDonald as the Raiders have been horrendous against tight ends all season which we saw last week against the Chiefs.

In cash, I'm not going either Kelce or Ertz this week, but if I preferred one it would be Kelce as Baltimore's average against the tight end which means that it is their one spot where they are week as their defense is elite elsewhere.

Sunday, December 2, 2018

Tyreek Hill What Could Have Been

6 Targets, 1 catch and it seems like every target he's had has either been dropped or just overthrown. Was in position to have a huge week. He had just three drops on the season heading into today and he has at least three today.

GPP Lineup

Here's my favorite GPP lineup this week.


Lineup and Bankroll Discussion

After last week, we are almost back to even as the bankroll is back to $9,655.

This week, I'm going lighter at only 10% of my bankroll. The reason for this is that I think the build is fairly simple this week and it is going to come down to quite a few 1v1 2v2 type matchups.


Not a ton of time this week- Week 13 Thoughts

Apologies for posting this late, have been dealing with some computer issues that had prevented me from getting this up as well as the Kareem Hunt news has everyone scrambling. Just going to post some quick thoughts and then the lineup.

Quarterback-
Quarterback is likely the most difficult position this week and in cash you might want to spend up this week as both Cam Newton and Patrick Mahomes are in tremendous spots.

GPP
Jeff Driskel
Lamar Jackson
Jameis Winston
Case Keenum
Aaron Rodgers

Running Back-

This position has actually gotten fairly easy. I'm playing Christian McCaffrey, Spencer Ware, and Aaron Jones everywhere.

GPP-
Todd Gurley
Saquon Barkley (Tremendous GPP on DraftKings this week)
Phillip Lindsay

Wide Receiver
Toughest position of the week this week outside of Emmanuel Sanders who is in a phenomenal spot this week going against a Bengals secondary that has been one of the worst for most of the season.

If you're spending up, both Tyreek Hill and Adam Thielen are the guys, but Hill is far too expensive on DraftKings so play him on FanDuel if you're doing so.

On the low end, Adam Humphries is my favorite play this week followed by Taylor Gabriel who is in a nice high floor situation in Chicago where he should catch 5-7 passes this week, and is a better play on DraftKings because of his high catch number.

GPP Thoughts
Davante Adams is my favorite guy here and is my favorite stack overall.
D.J. Moore
Kenny Golladay
Corey Davis

Tight End-
Just play Eric Ebron this week. If you want to play someone else, spend up or go all the way down to Matt Lacosse.