Thursday, December 29, 2016

Heading down the final stretch Week 17

Here we are, week 17. The bankroll took a big hit last week as I decided to go big after several great weeks in a row. This is disappointing, as it wipes out several great weeks of rosters.

Current bankroll is down to $11,100 which is still positive for the year, but not where we want it to be.

Moving on to Week 17. My advice here is go small, as there are so few teams that have something to play for.

Below are some teams that have nothing to play for and have the biggest rest risk.

Dallas- Clinched #1 seed
New York Giants- Clinched #5 seed
Pittsburgh- Clinched #3 seed, have already stated Ben, Bell, Brown will not play in this game.
Houston- Clinched #4 seed, although Tom Savage still will be motivated for a good performance.


Non playoff-teams
Buffalo- Not a playoff team, but will be starting E.J. Manuel and appear that they want to lose this game.

A lot of the teams that are outside the playoffs are going to have mixed levels of motivation. Older teams such as Carolina, will likely be less motivated than a young team like Cleveland who has 18 rookies on their roster that will be fighting for their NFL careers.

Saturday, December 24, 2016

Well that didn't work so well

Keeping this one short in sweet, but three things hurt today.

1) Not going Patriots defense was a critical error  and just a bad decision on my part. Thought I could get away with the Packers in a low over under but it didn't work that way.

2) Rob Kelley- This pick I would not have changed at all. The Redskins had four rushing touchdowns and Chris Thompson had a receiving touchdown. That's five touchdowns that could have went to Kelley, but it just didn't work out that way for one reason or another. These are the picks where you just trust your process and realize touchdowns are volatile.

3) Julio Jones was announced to be on a snap count about 3 minutes before kickoff and I couldn't get swapped to anything I like. Jones was a full participant in practice so it was a little surprising for that announcement to come out. This pick I probably should have forecasted if this was to happen and have a backup plan but due to the holidays just didn't do that this week.

$1k Double Up

Joined this contest today instead of a h2h

https://www.fanduel.com/games/17365/contests/17365-205467819/entries/1122688543/scoring?entry=1118080917

Week 16 Lineup


Friday, December 23, 2016

Week 16 Bankroll and Week 16 Thoughts

Great season it has been hopefully you have been following along and found this blog valuable. 

We started this season at $10,000 and I am currently at $12,100. 

Let's go big this week and put $3,500 in play including a $1k h2h that I will post here after lock for you to track along with me. After the last four weeks of great lineups, I feel great about this.

QB- Cash game- Matt Ryan

Matt Ryan- Matt Ryan is an excellent cash game play on this slate, as he is facing off against the worst passing defenses in the NFL this season in the Carolina Panthers who have allowed 274.8 yards per game. 

Andrew Luck- Andrew Luck is one of the safest play on the slate as this game is projected to be the highest game on the slate. Luck has thrown for 250+ and 2 TD's in four consecutive games. Oakland has allowed the seventh most passing yards on the season and with all the tough matchups that are out there this week for the top end quarterbacks, Luck seems the safest in cash. 

Tom Brady- Brady is projected to score the most amount of points this week, but the issue is that they are 17 point favorites in a game that the Jets have seemingly given up on this season. This game just seems as if it will be the Patriots getting off to an early lead and then LeGarrete Blount carries the load for most of the rest of the game. Brady is a GPP only play for me this week as you will be banking on Belichick to not stop scoring or the Jets to keep this game close.

RB-

Jordan Howard- 
Jordan Howard is going to be one of the most popular plays of the slate, but for me, I am fading Howard this week. Howard just does not score enough touchdowns to warrant starting him cash games. The reason here is Howard's price has risen to a point where he is no longer a must play and he has only scored a touchdown in four games this season. If I am paying up for a running back, I want more of a chance to score a touchdown than that. The matchup is positive as the Redskins are in the bottom ten defensively against running backs, but this is not the situation to start Howard.

LeSean McCoy-
LeSean McCoy is the top options for me this week as we saw him dominate the Browns last week and he gets to go against a Miami Dolphins team that is in the bottom three in the NFL in terms of rushing yards allowed.  McCoy should have very little issue getting to 100 yards in this game.

Rob Kelley- 
Rob Kelley is the premiere cheap option at the running back position this game. Kelley has scored four touchdowns in his last two games and is priced at just $5,800. In the Redskins last three wins, Kelley has gone for 88 total yards and 2 TD's, 137 total yards and 3 TD's and 97 rushing yards. At just $5,800 he is one of the top value plays on this slate.

WR-

Wide receiver is one of the hardest positions this week and this is going to determine your wins or losses. 

T.Y. Hilton
T.Y Hilton is my favorite wide receiver on this slate, as the Raiders have really struggled against the small shifty receivers like Hilton. Hilton struggled last week against a tough Vikings secondary, but should be in a nice spot to rebound in this game in a favorable matchup and is still priced less than some of the top options that have tough matchups.

Michael Crabtree
I want as much exposure to this Colts Raiders game as I can get, and with Amari Cooper likely drawing coverage against Vontae Davis, Michael Crabtree continues to be the top option for the Raiders in this projected high scoring game. This is a tiatuion where his price is simply too cheap and his red zone targets rank second in the NFL this season as he has 24 red zone targets on the season.

That's it for now, I will be adding more players throughout the night/morning as I continue to evaluation more and more players. I will continue to post my lineup tonight or in the morning.

Happy Holidays everyone

Thursday, December 22, 2016

Free $1,000 Invite Only NFL Freeroll

As part of our launch of Basketballguys launch, we are hosting a $1,000 freeroll on FanDuel this week.

All you have to do is join our FREE email list for Basketballguys as it will be a special email invitational this weekend in tomorrow's mailing list.

Click the following link to be added to our free basketballguys mailing list.

Sunday, December 18, 2016

Week 15 Cash Game Lineup

This one is probably going to draw a few questions, as I mentioned that I love Amari Cooper this week in GPP's, yet I am starting Michael Crabtree in my cash game lineups.

The answer is that it Michael Crabtree is significantly cheaper than Amari Cooper, and he has been more consistent over the last five weeks. I expect Crabtree will be extremely popular at just $6k, so with me going heavy on Cooper in GPP's due to the game theory aspect I described earlier, and if all of the production goes to Crabtree I will at least have a hedge in my cash game lineups. Just because I like Cooper does not mean I do not like Crabtree, the reason I like Cooper is that I believe he is going to be severely under-owned.

On this slate I'm paying up for known commodities in Bell/Johnson and even Ryan as I feel he is the safest QB on the board. At wide receiver, I am kind of just figuring the rest out as Matthews is a target hog which is always great for cash games, Crabtree is in a great matchup, and Taylor Gabriel with Julio Jones out is a must start in my opinion. I like Rudolph as the Colts have really struggled against the tight end position at times this season, and Kansas City's defense is facing Marcus Mariota who is from Hawaii and is going to be playing in 5 degree weather in Kansas City. Green Bay's defense is also an option as they're facing Newport Beach product Matt Barkley and I may do a 50/50 split in my cash game lineups


Saturday, December 17, 2016

Week 15 Positional Breakdown- QB

QB-
Contests are going to be won and lost with the quarterback position this week as there are no clear cut answers at the quarterback position this week.

Matt Ryan- Cash 
The Falcons are projected to score 32.5 points in this game, and for as bad as the 49ers have been against the pass, they have been equally as bad against the quarterback position as they have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The problem is that Julio Jones is out, Mohammad Sanu is banged up, and the Falcons are 13.5 point favorites in this game. Ryan has a high floor, but his ceiling is relatively limited as if this game is a blowout, the Falcons will just run the ball a significant amount in this game. He is likely going to be my cash game quarterback, but I will not have a lot of him in GPP's.

Tyrod Taylor- GPP
Tyrod Taylor is an intriguing play in this game primarily because the Browns are such a bad team and LeSean McCoy is not 100% healthy. Taylor has ran for a touchdown in five of his last eight games and with the Browns having one of the worst defensive lines in the NFL, Taylor should have plenty of time to throw the ball and find holes as they lose contain due to poor gap assignments. It's tough to start him in cash, but he does offer some nice savings if you're willing to take a little bit of a risk.  He is a great GPP play this week.

Kirk Cousins- Cash/GPP
Kirk Cousins is facing a Carolina Panthers that has very little left to play for this season after a disappointing year after a Super Bowl run last year. The Panthers secondary has been one of the worst in the NFL this year giving up the third most yards per game at 272.4. We have seen Kirk Cousins' upside on Thanksgiving where he threw for 449 yards and three touchdowns. Cousins has struggled over the last two weeks on the road, but returns home this week which he has been much better at home over his career in a must-win game this week.

Aaron Rodgers-Off
I'm off Aaron Rodgers this week as living in Chicago it is going to blistering cold this weekend. The current forecast has this game as a -15-degree wind chill at kickoff tomorrow with 15 MPH winds.

Cam Newton- Off
I'm off players that have nothing left to play for and for me that is Cam Newton. Cam has already shown that he is not willing to dive for a fumble in the Super Bowl, so how much is he going to run when this team has nothing left to play for this season.

Thursday, December 15, 2016

Favorite GPP Play This Week

Amari Cooper. Cooper has been really struggling, but Casey Hayward is likely going to be splitting matching up against both Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper which means that Cooper will get to face off against an undrafted rookie Trevor Williams for part of the game. This is a situation where a lot of people are going to be scared off as Hayward is one of the top corners in the league and the typical consensus is that the number one corner defends the number one wide receiver, but that is likely not going to be the case here.


Sunday, December 11, 2016

Week 14 Lineup

Been going back and forth on whether to post my cash game lineup, as Kaepernick is in it, which scares the heck out of me, but it allows me to go up and get Brown and Johnson.


Friday, December 9, 2016

Heading Down the Final Stretch- Dominating the Last Few Weeks

We have to remember that these players are human and not just numbers on a page or a stat line read off in a projection. Projection models are great, but they use a baseline trend and then adjust for the matchup, what most of them do not do is they do not take into the external factors of the game. Whether it is players not wanting to get injured, coaches worried about their future, or just the overall lack of morale in the locker room, you want to start players who still care and play 100% to their abilities.

Towards the end of the season, this is a great time to incorporate human psychology into your lineups. Evaluate which teams are still going to care at this point, and then look at the track record of that team when they are in situations similar to the one that they are currently in. I typically avoid players who had success last season and are now in a situation where they have nothing to play for.

We typically avoid teams like Cleveland, Chicago, Los Angeles on this list, as they are all very young teams and their veterans have not been starting for several weeks. These players are still fighting for a job next year, so they see less of a drop off compared to established veterans.

Players/Situations to monitor and or avoid. This list will be changing week to week, but here is where we are currently at.
Avoid Carolina- Last year's Super Bowl runner-ups have nothing to play for in this season and Cam Newton has not had the same fire this year as in year's past. With the team still having four games left this could get ugly.

Monitor Arizona- If Arizona loses another game this season they are effectively out of the playoff hunt. This is an aging team that relies heavily on their veteran players and the excessive workload of David Johnson. If they are eliminated, Johnson's workload will likely decrease and you could see the team work more younger players in the mix looking forward to 2017.

Monitor Green Bay- Green Bay is still in the playoff mix, but with another loss or two they would be eliminated. If they are eliminated, Rodgers has been dealing with a hamstring injury all season, and Jordy Nelson is still returning from his ACL injury in 2015. This is likely a situation where if they are eliminated they start looking towards 2017.




Sunday, December 4, 2016

Updates with Injury News- Marvin Jones Out

The Marvin Jones injury opens up a lot of opportunity for the rest of the offense. With that said I am going with Eric Ebron


Thoughts on Week 13- Cash Game Lineup

Apologize for getting this out so late, this has been a whirlwind of a week.

This is a weird slate, as everyone is going to be on LeVeon Bell and David Johnson. In my cash games though I believe that Jordan Howard will produce equally as one of those two in an ideal matchup against San Francisco. Going down to Howard allows me to go up to Julio Jones who is going up against Marcus Peters who likes to take chances and can get burned on deep plays.