Between this and Thanksgiving it was a much needed week. GPP's weren't great, best lineup is my cash lineup.
Sunday, November 25, 2018
Looking like a great week
A lot of self-reflecting, getting back to the basics and improvement this week.
Week 12 Cash Lineup
The Gus Edwards news with Alex Collins being out is massive and makes him a top play today.
Saturday, November 24, 2018
Week 12 Thoughts
I hope your Thanksgiving was a good one. This is a weird week in that people still have a Thanksgiving hangover.
Let's move into Week 12.
Quarterback-
At quarterback this week, the decision for me is between Lamar Jackson and Jameis Winston in cash. I am going with Lamar Jackson this week as I think the floor of Jackson with his running ability is higher than Winston who we've seen have a low floor with his turnover tendencies.
GPP Options
Andrew Luck- Has thrown 3 touchdowns in 6 straight games
Baker Mayfield- Going up against the Bengals defense who has been one of the worst in football this season
Running Back
Saquon Barkley is going to be the chalk once again this week especially with Melvin Gordon likely missing this week.
Nick Chubb-
Chubb is going up against the Bengals this week who have given up the most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. The Bengals have allowed 85 yards or more and a touchdown in each of their last five games. This is a prime spot for Chubb to have a big week.
Austin Ekeler-
Ekeler is going to be popular with Melvin Gordon missing, but I'm not going that direction. The reason for this is relatively simple, Austin Ekeler is also dealing with a neck injury and isn't built to have 15-20 carries in a game. I think Justin Jackson will get some work here along with Detrez Newsome.
GPP Options-
Joe Mixon
James Conner
Christian McCaffrey
Wide Receiver
Odell Beckham Jr.-
This Eagles secondary is an absolute mess. Braxton Miller who was a quarterback in college who played wide receiver in the NFL is practicing at cornerback this week to help with the Eagles with Jalen Mills, Avonte Maddox, Rasul Douglas and Sidney Jones sidelined.
Keenan Allen-
With Melvin Gordon likely out, the Chargers are going to utilize Allen as an extension of the run game. He will draw the favorable coverage against the Cardinals as it's unlikely Patrick Peterson will shadow him into the slot.
Tyler Boyd-
Boyd's price came down to a reasonable price with A.J. Green out. The Browns have allowed the third most net passing yards per game and this could be the shootout game of the week.
GPP Options-
Antonio Brown- Scored a touchdown in every game but one this year.
T.Y. Hilton
Mike Evans
Curtis Samuel
Josh Gordon
Adam Humphries
Tight End
Paying up for tight end in cash has not been successful this season. So for that reason, I'm going with Cameron Brate this week. O.J. Howard was placed on IR and will be out with the season which means that Brate should see a significant workload in a good matchup.
GPP Options-
Rob Gronkowski
Jack Doyle
Evan Engram
George Kittle
Zach Ertz
Let's move into Week 12.
Quarterback-
At quarterback this week, the decision for me is between Lamar Jackson and Jameis Winston in cash. I am going with Lamar Jackson this week as I think the floor of Jackson with his running ability is higher than Winston who we've seen have a low floor with his turnover tendencies.
GPP Options
Andrew Luck- Has thrown 3 touchdowns in 6 straight games
Baker Mayfield- Going up against the Bengals defense who has been one of the worst in football this season
Running Back
Saquon Barkley is going to be the chalk once again this week especially with Melvin Gordon likely missing this week.
Nick Chubb-
Chubb is going up against the Bengals this week who have given up the most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. The Bengals have allowed 85 yards or more and a touchdown in each of their last five games. This is a prime spot for Chubb to have a big week.
Austin Ekeler-
Ekeler is going to be popular with Melvin Gordon missing, but I'm not going that direction. The reason for this is relatively simple, Austin Ekeler is also dealing with a neck injury and isn't built to have 15-20 carries in a game. I think Justin Jackson will get some work here along with Detrez Newsome.
GPP Options-
Joe Mixon
James Conner
Christian McCaffrey
Wide Receiver
Odell Beckham Jr.-
This Eagles secondary is an absolute mess. Braxton Miller who was a quarterback in college who played wide receiver in the NFL is practicing at cornerback this week to help with the Eagles with Jalen Mills, Avonte Maddox, Rasul Douglas and Sidney Jones sidelined.
Keenan Allen-
With Melvin Gordon likely out, the Chargers are going to utilize Allen as an extension of the run game. He will draw the favorable coverage against the Cardinals as it's unlikely Patrick Peterson will shadow him into the slot.
Tyler Boyd-
Boyd's price came down to a reasonable price with A.J. Green out. The Browns have allowed the third most net passing yards per game and this could be the shootout game of the week.
GPP Options-
Antonio Brown- Scored a touchdown in every game but one this year.
T.Y. Hilton
Mike Evans
Curtis Samuel
Josh Gordon
Adam Humphries
Tight End
Paying up for tight end in cash has not been successful this season. So for that reason, I'm going with Cameron Brate this week. O.J. Howard was placed on IR and will be out with the season which means that Brate should see a significant workload in a good matchup.
GPP Options-
Rob Gronkowski
Jack Doyle
Evan Engram
George Kittle
Zach Ertz
Thursday, November 22, 2018
Thanksgiving GPP Thoughts
Typing this up quickly as I've been writing now for far too long today and need some sleep before the games start.
Quarterback
At the quarterback position, I'm going with Chase Daniel pretty much everywhere. I don't think the drop off between Trubisky and Chase Daniel is that significant. No one will blame you if you want to go with Brees or Ryan, but I want to get some of the superstars in that game and by going expensive at the quarterback position you lose out on those guys.
Running Back-
This week is really simple. In GPP's there are five running backs that I'm considering in these games.
Obvious Plays
Alvin Kamara
Ezekiel Elliott
Mark Ingram
Under the Radar Plays:
Tarik Cohen- Chase Daniel will continue to check down in this game and much like Taylor Gabriel who is mentioned later in this article, both will be utilized heavily in the passing game.
Theo Riddick- With no Kerryon Johnson, Theo Riddick should see significant volume this week. Many will like LeGarrette Blount, but I prefer him in cash instead of GPP as he does not have the upside that Riddick does. If the Lions get down in this game, Riddick could see significant work out of the passing game in this one.
Wide Receiver-
The key to this slate is to find the value on this slate at the wide receivers. There are a number of guys who are intriguing this week.
Obviously, Julio Jones, Michael Thomas are the two guys that you should be trying to work into your lineup.
Taylor Gabriel- Breakaway speed and should be looking at significant work in underneath routes as they look to get Gabriel in space. Chase Daniel does not have the strongest arm and therefore will look at getting the ball out to playmakers who can make the big play.
Bruce Ellington- Matched up against a gambling cornerback in Prince Amukamara who has struggled the last two weeks and will continue to play a significant role in this offense.
Michael Gallup- Cheap and in an ideal matchup if Quinton Dunbar is out as he's facing Danny Johnson who has been one of the worst cornerbacks in football. You can read more about Johnson here which was a game breakdown I wrote up about this game on Footballguys.
Mohamed Sanu- Sanu is in the best matchup of any receiver in this game as he's going up against P.J. Williams who has been one of the worst slot corners in football. Sanu has tremendous upside this week.
Anthony Miller- Has touchdown equity as he has scored five touchdowns this season. Was on the second team earlier this year so he and Daniel should have some chemistry.
Tight End-
Jordan Reed is the clear cut guy here as he and Colt McCoy have had a history dating back to the last time Colt McCoy has played for a significant period of time.
If you want to be different, Trey Burton or Austin Hooper would be the other guys to target on this slate.
Defense-
The Saints on FanDuel are too cheap and the Bears on DraftKings are too cheap, that's the route I'm going this week.
Quarterback
At the quarterback position, I'm going with Chase Daniel pretty much everywhere. I don't think the drop off between Trubisky and Chase Daniel is that significant. No one will blame you if you want to go with Brees or Ryan, but I want to get some of the superstars in that game and by going expensive at the quarterback position you lose out on those guys.
Running Back-
This week is really simple. In GPP's there are five running backs that I'm considering in these games.
Obvious Plays
Alvin Kamara
Ezekiel Elliott
Mark Ingram
Under the Radar Plays:
Tarik Cohen- Chase Daniel will continue to check down in this game and much like Taylor Gabriel who is mentioned later in this article, both will be utilized heavily in the passing game.
Theo Riddick- With no Kerryon Johnson, Theo Riddick should see significant volume this week. Many will like LeGarrette Blount, but I prefer him in cash instead of GPP as he does not have the upside that Riddick does. If the Lions get down in this game, Riddick could see significant work out of the passing game in this one.
Wide Receiver-
The key to this slate is to find the value on this slate at the wide receivers. There are a number of guys who are intriguing this week.
Obviously, Julio Jones, Michael Thomas are the two guys that you should be trying to work into your lineup.
Taylor Gabriel- Breakaway speed and should be looking at significant work in underneath routes as they look to get Gabriel in space. Chase Daniel does not have the strongest arm and therefore will look at getting the ball out to playmakers who can make the big play.
Bruce Ellington- Matched up against a gambling cornerback in Prince Amukamara who has struggled the last two weeks and will continue to play a significant role in this offense.
Michael Gallup- Cheap and in an ideal matchup if Quinton Dunbar is out as he's facing Danny Johnson who has been one of the worst cornerbacks in football. You can read more about Johnson here which was a game breakdown I wrote up about this game on Footballguys.
Mohamed Sanu- Sanu is in the best matchup of any receiver in this game as he's going up against P.J. Williams who has been one of the worst slot corners in football. Sanu has tremendous upside this week.
Anthony Miller- Has touchdown equity as he has scored five touchdowns this season. Was on the second team earlier this year so he and Daniel should have some chemistry.
Tight End-
Jordan Reed is the clear cut guy here as he and Colt McCoy have had a history dating back to the last time Colt McCoy has played for a significant period of time.
If you want to be different, Trey Burton or Austin Hooper would be the other guys to target on this slate.
Defense-
The Saints on FanDuel are too cheap and the Bears on DraftKings are too cheap, that's the route I'm going this week.
Happy Thanksgiving- Preview
I don't have a great feeling on this Thanksgiving slate. I love a few of the guys in this lineup in Daniel, Elliott, Kamara, Thomas, Jones, and it just kind of fits.
Marvin Jones is going to miss this week, and Kerryon Johnson is also going to miss. This makes LeGarrette Blount and Bruce Ellington at least intriguing. I believe the Bears are going to game plan to take Kenny Golladay out of this game and force others to beat them this week.
Blount scares me in this lineup, but I love this lineup for cash. I'm not playing a ton of cash for Thanksgiving, as everyone is going to have very similar roster builds I feel like.
Marvin Jones is going to miss this week, and Kerryon Johnson is also going to miss. This makes LeGarrette Blount and Bruce Ellington at least intriguing. I believe the Bears are going to game plan to take Kenny Golladay out of this game and force others to beat them this week.
Blount scares me in this lineup, but I love this lineup for cash. I'm not playing a ton of cash for Thanksgiving, as everyone is going to have very similar roster builds I feel like.
Sunday, November 18, 2018
Self Reflection Time
Having done this for 8 years, I've had two losing seasons. The first was year 1 back in 2011 where I was still learning. The second was 2014 as I was chasing live finals pretty hard, made one, but finished very low in it. The third year is likely going to be 2018.
At the end of this season, I need to go back and look at prior seasons and see what if anything I was doing differently. The reality is that 2018 seems like a difficult year for cash games, as seemingly every week there are players that you absolutely have to have or you're just going to lose. Here's where I'm at after 5 hours of reflection.
So what changed?
The first thing is that I don't think my bankroll management has been as tight as it should have been. I've come out on the wrong side of the high dollar contests with decent lineups and had I stuck with my strategy, I would be much closer to break even or even up a little bit.
The second thing I'm doing is just making bad lineups. There is no excuse to it other than recognizing that you're doing it and make corrections. I think college football likely has a large portion to do with this (which I manage for Footballguys as well) as the last few seasons has been 100% building lineups on Thursday-Saturday.
Are cash games still beatable?This is the first question I asked myself when dealing with the frustration I have been going through this year. My answer is that they are absolutely still beatable yes that they are still beatable. I look at as my process is flawed.
So where do we go from here?
The first change I'm going to make is more awareness and recognition of ownership. This was not something that I did last season or this season as I tend to like to live in my own bubble and trust my process. The reality is a lot of weeks my process yields the same guy in terms of ownership. Weeks like this week, I didn't really have a strong take about any of the running backs. So much so, that I ended up on Theo FREAKING Riddick in cash. In hindsight that was unbelievably stupid. Had I been more aware, I likely would have went off of Riddick and forced in Barkley along with other changes.
The second change that I'm going to make is I'm going to build my cash game on Thursday/Friday before any college football responsibilities instead of Saturday Night/Sunday. A large part of this has to do with just letting a lineup marinate in your mind.
Will any of this help?
Honestly who knows, but what I'm not going to do is just say that this is due to random variance. It would be easy for me to write this and explain how this is just variance in the process and say the difference between a 7-10 year and a 10-7 year will balance each other out over the long run. While that is true, the reality is that I have sucked this year and need to improve.
At the end of this season, I need to go back and look at prior seasons and see what if anything I was doing differently. The reality is that 2018 seems like a difficult year for cash games, as seemingly every week there are players that you absolutely have to have or you're just going to lose. Here's where I'm at after 5 hours of reflection.
So what changed?
The first thing is that I don't think my bankroll management has been as tight as it should have been. I've come out on the wrong side of the high dollar contests with decent lineups and had I stuck with my strategy, I would be much closer to break even or even up a little bit.
The second thing I'm doing is just making bad lineups. There is no excuse to it other than recognizing that you're doing it and make corrections. I think college football likely has a large portion to do with this (which I manage for Footballguys as well) as the last few seasons has been 100% building lineups on Thursday-Saturday.
Are cash games still beatable?This is the first question I asked myself when dealing with the frustration I have been going through this year. My answer is that they are absolutely still beatable yes that they are still beatable. I look at as my process is flawed.
So where do we go from here?
The first change I'm going to make is more awareness and recognition of ownership. This was not something that I did last season or this season as I tend to like to live in my own bubble and trust my process. The reality is a lot of weeks my process yields the same guy in terms of ownership. Weeks like this week, I didn't really have a strong take about any of the running backs. So much so, that I ended up on Theo FREAKING Riddick in cash. In hindsight that was unbelievably stupid. Had I been more aware, I likely would have went off of Riddick and forced in Barkley along with other changes.
The second change that I'm going to make is I'm going to build my cash game on Thursday/Friday before any college football responsibilities instead of Saturday Night/Sunday. A large part of this has to do with just letting a lineup marinate in your mind.
Will any of this help?
Honestly who knows, but what I'm not going to do is just say that this is due to random variance. It would be easy for me to write this and explain how this is just variance in the process and say the difference between a 7-10 year and a 10-7 year will balance each other out over the long run. While that is true, the reality is that I have sucked this year and need to improve.
Forced to Late Swap
Forced to move to this, due to projecting so many people having Thomas and trying to chase the Barkley points.
Will also vary up my defenses, hoping to get differentiation in case New Orleans struggles.
Will also vary up my defenses, hoping to get differentiation in case New Orleans struggles.
No Saquon Barkley= Big Trouble
I am stunned by his ownership. I am facing Barkley in 148/150 H2H games.
The matchup was a good one, but with his price he wasn't someone I was going with due to his lack of consistent upside in 0.5 PPR. Have him everywhere on DraftKings.
Major mistake on my part.
The matchup was a good one, but with his price he wasn't someone I was going with due to his lack of consistent upside in 0.5 PPR. Have him everywhere on DraftKings.
Major mistake on my part.
GPP Lineup
JuJu is the wildcard here. Where the Jaguars struggle is against the slot going up against D.J. Hayden he should be able to potentially succeed at a very low ownership.
Cash Game Lineup
At the moment, rolling this out there. I'll be honest, Theo Riddick makes me very nervous, but with no Marvin Jones this week, Riddick realistically should see close to 10 targets.
Saturday, November 17, 2018
Heading into Week 11
Last week was an alright week. Lost the big dollar H2H, but overall, the lineup would have been good in 50/50's and won 102 of my 150 H2H's for a net profit of 336, in those contests, but lost $200 overall due to the large H2H.
This is a big week and the reason I say this is that the bankroll is down to $9,144. Not good at all. Every week from this point through the rest of the season, there is no margin for error to get positive for the third consecutive season doing this blog.
Quarterback-
At the quarterback position, it's fairly simple this week for me. I'm rolling out Eli Manning against this awful Tampa Bay secondary on both FanDuel and DraftKings cash. The only exception to that would be if Lamar Jackson starts and then I would go with Jackson.
GPP Options-
Deshaun Watson- Everywhere
Carson Wentz- Everywhere
Ryan Fitzpatrick- DraftKings
Fading-
I'm fading Cam Newton this week. The matchup should be a good one, but Newton is a matchup-proof guy who we've seen struggle in great matchups and excel in difficult matchups.
Running Back-
At the running back position, this week is a tough one.
David Johnson is my top guy this week in terms of value and production. He's in a tremendous matchup against the Raiders who have one of the worst run defenses in football and Johnson has looked better recently since Byron Leftwich has taken over.
The other player I like is Alvin Kamara this week and the reason for that is that most of his runs are outside compared and the Saints can neutralize this elite defensive line a little bit by getting Kamara out in space as well as checking the ball down to him.
Other guys that I like-
Dion Lewis- Everywhere
Saquon Barkley- DraftKings only due to the PPR value
Ezekiel Elliott- FanDuel
Fading-
Melvin Gordon is going to popular, but I'm likely fading him as Denver's defense is playing much better recently.
Wide Receiver
I started the week with my favorite guy being Michael Thomas. As it stands now, I have him virtually even with DeAndre Hopkins, what I am likely doing is due to the price difference I'm playing Thomas on FanDuel and Hopkins on DraftKings.
The other must play guy for me this week is Corey Davis who remains simply too cheap for his talent.
Other Options
Larry Fitzgerald is too cheap on both sites, he's a nice cash game option this week.
John Brown- $5,400 on FanDuel is ridiculously cheap even if Lamar Jackson or RG3 gets the start.
Emmanuel Sanders
Devin Funchess- FanDuel
Nelson Agholor- DraftKings
Michael Gallup- DraftKings
Fading-
Amari Cooper. Once again another player that will be popular. I'm not going to tell you he's a bad play, but he's also Amari Cooper who we've seen inconsistency throughout his entire career. Could it be different in Dallas? Possibly, but I'm not buying it.
Tight End-
I am playing Zach Ertz in every contest I play this week. He's the first name I'm clicking on when I build a lineup.
If you want to go cheap, James O'Shaughnessy is fine, but I'm not doing it.
This is a big week and the reason I say this is that the bankroll is down to $9,144. Not good at all. Every week from this point through the rest of the season, there is no margin for error to get positive for the third consecutive season doing this blog.
Quarterback-
At the quarterback position, it's fairly simple this week for me. I'm rolling out Eli Manning against this awful Tampa Bay secondary on both FanDuel and DraftKings cash. The only exception to that would be if Lamar Jackson starts and then I would go with Jackson.
GPP Options-
Deshaun Watson- Everywhere
Carson Wentz- Everywhere
Ryan Fitzpatrick- DraftKings
Fading-
I'm fading Cam Newton this week. The matchup should be a good one, but Newton is a matchup-proof guy who we've seen struggle in great matchups and excel in difficult matchups.
Running Back-
At the running back position, this week is a tough one.
David Johnson is my top guy this week in terms of value and production. He's in a tremendous matchup against the Raiders who have one of the worst run defenses in football and Johnson has looked better recently since Byron Leftwich has taken over.
The other player I like is Alvin Kamara this week and the reason for that is that most of his runs are outside compared and the Saints can neutralize this elite defensive line a little bit by getting Kamara out in space as well as checking the ball down to him.
Other guys that I like-
Dion Lewis- Everywhere
Saquon Barkley- DraftKings only due to the PPR value
Ezekiel Elliott- FanDuel
Fading-
Melvin Gordon is going to popular, but I'm likely fading him as Denver's defense is playing much better recently.
Wide Receiver
I started the week with my favorite guy being Michael Thomas. As it stands now, I have him virtually even with DeAndre Hopkins, what I am likely doing is due to the price difference I'm playing Thomas on FanDuel and Hopkins on DraftKings.
The other must play guy for me this week is Corey Davis who remains simply too cheap for his talent.
Other Options
Larry Fitzgerald is too cheap on both sites, he's a nice cash game option this week.
John Brown- $5,400 on FanDuel is ridiculously cheap even if Lamar Jackson or RG3 gets the start.
Emmanuel Sanders
Devin Funchess- FanDuel
Nelson Agholor- DraftKings
Michael Gallup- DraftKings
Fading-
Amari Cooper. Once again another player that will be popular. I'm not going to tell you he's a bad play, but he's also Amari Cooper who we've seen inconsistency throughout his entire career. Could it be different in Dallas? Possibly, but I'm not buying it.
Tight End-
I am playing Zach Ertz in every contest I play this week. He's the first name I'm clicking on when I build a lineup.
If you want to go cheap, James O'Shaughnessy is fine, but I'm not doing it.
Sunday, November 11, 2018
Done with the high dollar h2h
It's officially killing my bankroll, as I keep getting matched up against the same guy. Even if I pull this one out, there is no edge as the overlap every week is so high.
Going back to what this blog has been about which has been growing the bankroll in the best way which continues to be a high volume of $5 and $10 h2h's.
Going back to what this blog has been about which has been growing the bankroll in the best way which continues to be a high volume of $5 and $10 h2h's.
535 H2H
Forgot to post this earlier, but here's where it stands.
https://www.fanduel.com/games/29736/contests/29736-222216222/entries/1592950758/scoring
Going to be a tight one.
https://www.fanduel.com/games/29736/contests/29736-222216222/entries/1592950758/scoring
Going to be a tight one.
Everyone loves FitzMAGIC
Of my 150 $10 h2h this week. He is rostered in 140 of those contests. Jordan Reed is in 110 contests. Crazy ownership in a week I thought would be a little bit different.
Guys I'm fading
Kareem Hunt is still loved by the masses, he was rostered in over 50% of the contests.
Josh Gordon is the guy that's second in terms of roster percentage that I'm facing.
Mike Evans is a guy I didn't have but facing a lot of.
Guys I'm fading
Kareem Hunt is still loved by the masses, he was rostered in over 50% of the contests.
Josh Gordon is the guy that's second in terms of roster percentage that I'm facing.
Mike Evans is a guy I didn't have but facing a lot of.
GPP Lineup
I really hate giving out one GPP lineup, but since you guys asked for it. The reason I don't like it is that I typically have 5-10 lineups that I roll out there instead of just one so picking my favorite is always a tough decision.
Week 10 Cash Lineup
Here's where I'm at with the lineup this week.
Bankroll is down to $9,475 on the year. 150 $10 h2h lineups this week. I might add a high $ h2h or double up in there as well just to show it here.
Saturday, November 10, 2018
Week 10 Preview
I feel like the Jacksonville Jaguars at the moment. Plenty of talent, but a team that just can't get out of its own way and is on a severe losing streak. Much like the Jaguars and Jalen Ramsey talking about how bad opposing quarterbacks are, we got a little bit cocky posting high dollar head to head games, questioning opponents decisions etc. This week, we're breaking the trend, simply by going back to how this channel started. I've joined 150 $10 contests throughout this week.
Much like the Jaguars who were on a bye week I took a couple of days completely away from DFS. Monday and most of Tuesday was re-setting after a very frustrating week last week to put up a good team and Adam Thielen aka Mr. Consistency is the reason you lost is tough.
We're on to Week 10.
Quarterback-
This week is a week like no other in the sense that I can legitimately make an argument for about six guys.
Top Options-
Ryan Fitzpatrick- FanDuel Cash/GPP
The Redskins secondary is an absolute mess at the moment. It's looking like Quinton Dunbar might miss as well. This is a unit that is allowing 315 yards passing per game since week 3. They have an elite run d, but their pass defense is really struggling. He is too expensive for me on DraftKings.
Drew Brees- DraftKings Cash/ All GPP's
The Bengals secondary might be the worst in the league at the moment. If you take out two of their games one of which is a game script loss to Carolina where Carolina did not need to throw the ball and a game against Ryan Tannehill who isn't very good, the Bengals have allowed 385 yards passing in all of their other games.
Other Plays
Matt Ryan- DraftKings Cash/ All GPP's
Aaron Rodgers- DraftKings GPP
Baker Mayfield- All GPP's
Running Back-
Top Options
Melvin Gordon- Everywhere
This is a week in which I am plugging Melvin Gordon in every contest. The Raiders can't defend anybody on the ground allowing 5.13 yards per carry on the season to opposing running backs and has lost two of its leaders on the front seven in Khalil Mack and Bruce Irvin. Not sure the team has the talent or the will to turn around this sinking ship.
Other Options-
Dion Lewis- All contests- Here's another situation where they did not increase his price after a strong Monday Night Football game.
Mike Davis- If Chris Carson misses, Davis will be a top play of the day, the problem is we likely won't know this until after lineup lock
Alvin Kamara- FanDuel cash, All GPP's
Kareem Hunt- All GPP's
Aaron Jones- FanDuel cash, All GPP's
Mark Ingram- All GPP's
Duke Johnson- DraftKings GPP
David Johnson- DraftKings GPP
Wide Receiver-
Top Options
Michael Thomas- Everywhere
He's going to be extremely popular, but I have a hard time building a lineup that does not have Michael Thomas in it. There is simply too much value at the running back position to not spend up on Thomas in an ideal matchup this week as I already talked about how bad this secondary is.
Marquez Valdez-Scantling- FanDuel Must Play
MVS is emerging as the number two receiver in Green Bay in a great matchup in which Xavien Howard should be taking Davante Adams. He's almost a must play on FanDuel at $5,400 and fade at your own risk.
Other Options-
Josh Gordon- FanDuel Cash- All GPP
Cooper Kupp- FanDuel Cash- All GPP
Marvin Jones- FanDuel Cash-
Maurice Harris- DraftKings Cash Only
Quincy Enunwa- DraftKings Cash/GPP
Corey Davis- FanDuel Cash- All GPP
Larry Fitzgerald- FanDuel Cash Only
Dj Chark- All GPP
Adam Humphries- DraftKings Cash- All GPP
Fading Tyler Boyd this week, he will be popular, but I think his price is far too expensive and not sure he can emerge into a #1 receiver with A.J. Green playing
Tight End-
This is really price dependent, in cash, I'm playing David Njoku on DraftKings and Jordan Reed on FanDuel. Both are fine GPP plays as well.
Other Options-
Trey Burton- All GPP
Jonnu Smith- DraftKings GPP
Jack Doyle- DraftKings GPP
Defense-
In cash, I'm going with either the Saints or the Packers depending on what I can afford. I may replace the Saints with the Buccaneers if the injuries for the Washington offensive line materialize into missing time.
In GPP's, all three are solid plays, and if you want to spend up go with Chicago or Jacksonville.
Much like the Jaguars who were on a bye week I took a couple of days completely away from DFS. Monday and most of Tuesday was re-setting after a very frustrating week last week to put up a good team and Adam Thielen aka Mr. Consistency is the reason you lost is tough.
We're on to Week 10.
Quarterback-
This week is a week like no other in the sense that I can legitimately make an argument for about six guys.
Top Options-
Ryan Fitzpatrick- FanDuel Cash/GPP
The Redskins secondary is an absolute mess at the moment. It's looking like Quinton Dunbar might miss as well. This is a unit that is allowing 315 yards passing per game since week 3. They have an elite run d, but their pass defense is really struggling. He is too expensive for me on DraftKings.
Drew Brees- DraftKings Cash/ All GPP's
The Bengals secondary might be the worst in the league at the moment. If you take out two of their games one of which is a game script loss to Carolina where Carolina did not need to throw the ball and a game against Ryan Tannehill who isn't very good, the Bengals have allowed 385 yards passing in all of their other games.
Other Plays
Matt Ryan- DraftKings Cash/ All GPP's
Aaron Rodgers- DraftKings GPP
Baker Mayfield- All GPP's
Running Back-
Top Options
Melvin Gordon- Everywhere
This is a week in which I am plugging Melvin Gordon in every contest. The Raiders can't defend anybody on the ground allowing 5.13 yards per carry on the season to opposing running backs and has lost two of its leaders on the front seven in Khalil Mack and Bruce Irvin. Not sure the team has the talent or the will to turn around this sinking ship.
Other Options-
Dion Lewis- All contests- Here's another situation where they did not increase his price after a strong Monday Night Football game.
Mike Davis- If Chris Carson misses, Davis will be a top play of the day, the problem is we likely won't know this until after lineup lock
Alvin Kamara- FanDuel cash, All GPP's
Kareem Hunt- All GPP's
Aaron Jones- FanDuel cash, All GPP's
Mark Ingram- All GPP's
Duke Johnson- DraftKings GPP
David Johnson- DraftKings GPP
Wide Receiver-
Top Options
Michael Thomas- Everywhere
He's going to be extremely popular, but I have a hard time building a lineup that does not have Michael Thomas in it. There is simply too much value at the running back position to not spend up on Thomas in an ideal matchup this week as I already talked about how bad this secondary is.
Marquez Valdez-Scantling- FanDuel Must Play
MVS is emerging as the number two receiver in Green Bay in a great matchup in which Xavien Howard should be taking Davante Adams. He's almost a must play on FanDuel at $5,400 and fade at your own risk.
Other Options-
Josh Gordon- FanDuel Cash- All GPP
Cooper Kupp- FanDuel Cash- All GPP
Marvin Jones- FanDuel Cash-
Maurice Harris- DraftKings Cash Only
Quincy Enunwa- DraftKings Cash/GPP
Corey Davis- FanDuel Cash- All GPP
Larry Fitzgerald- FanDuel Cash Only
Dj Chark- All GPP
Adam Humphries- DraftKings Cash- All GPP
Fading Tyler Boyd this week, he will be popular, but I think his price is far too expensive and not sure he can emerge into a #1 receiver with A.J. Green playing
Tight End-
This is really price dependent, in cash, I'm playing David Njoku on DraftKings and Jordan Reed on FanDuel. Both are fine GPP plays as well.
Other Options-
Trey Burton- All GPP
Jonnu Smith- DraftKings GPP
Jack Doyle- DraftKings GPP
Defense-
In cash, I'm going with either the Saints or the Packers depending on what I can afford. I may replace the Saints with the Buccaneers if the injuries for the Washington offensive line materialize into missing time.
In GPP's, all three are solid plays, and if you want to spend up go with Chicago or Jacksonville.
Sunday, November 4, 2018
Not great
Lost the big H2H's because of Kamara, which is tough. Ended up doing ok in a lot of my other contests, but putting up 140 and losing is a tough one to swallow. Ended up down $700 in total. Disappointing.
What went right:
Running Backs- Going with Hunt, McCaffrey, and Chubb worked well.
Fitzpatrick over Cam Newton worked out tremendously
Fading Denver- I had builds with Sanders and Sutton and went up against a few people who did that. It worked out not going with those players as even though there was no Demaryius Thomas, Sanders and Sutton weren't great this week.
What went wrong:
Adam Thielen- The day likely would have looked very different if I used DeAndre Hopkins or Michael Thomas who were both at the same price. I chose Thielen even though he had the worst matchup thinking he was matchup proof with the highest floor.
What is frustrating about this, is that he was not listed on the injury report. The beat reporter said he was dealing with a calf injury. I would have never played him if this was released before the game like it is supposed to be.
Two Lions receivers- The offensive line gave the Lions no chance in this game as Stafford was consistently getting hit before routes could even develop. I loved Cooper Kupp
Not finding a way for Kelce- On Thursday I set a reminder to go off on Sunday at 11 that simply said "START KELCE YOU DUMMY". Did I listen to myself? Did I listen to what I wrote on Saturday during the preview? Of course not.
What went right:
Running Backs- Going with Hunt, McCaffrey, and Chubb worked well.
Fitzpatrick over Cam Newton worked out tremendously
Fading Denver- I had builds with Sanders and Sutton and went up against a few people who did that. It worked out not going with those players as even though there was no Demaryius Thomas, Sanders and Sutton weren't great this week.
What went wrong:
Adam Thielen- The day likely would have looked very different if I used DeAndre Hopkins or Michael Thomas who were both at the same price. I chose Thielen even though he had the worst matchup thinking he was matchup proof with the highest floor.
What is frustrating about this, is that he was not listed on the injury report. The beat reporter said he was dealing with a calf injury. I would have never played him if this was released before the game like it is supposed to be.
Two Lions receivers- The offensive line gave the Lions no chance in this game as Stafford was consistently getting hit before routes could even develop. I loved Cooper Kupp
Not finding a way for Kelce- On Thursday I set a reminder to go off on Sunday at 11 that simply said "START KELCE YOU DUMMY". Did I listen to myself? Did I listen to what I wrote on Saturday during the preview? Of course not.
Updated Cash Lineup- Fading Gurley
We'll see how this goes, typically these changes haven't worked in the past, but I like this lineup a lot more than my previous lineup.
I honestly just couldn't stomach starting Laquon Treadwell and the amount I had to give up for Gurley was too much. Going with both Lions receivers who combined should have a high floor, and Thielen who is a machine.
The thought process in taking Jones and Golladay is if they can get me a combined 24 points (10 catches 130 yards and a touchdown) then I'll take it. Obviously, the upside is much higher and Xavier Rhodes is extremely limited in warmups.
.
I honestly just couldn't stomach starting Laquon Treadwell and the amount I had to give up for Gurley was too much. Going with both Lions receivers who combined should have a high floor, and Thielen who is a machine.
The thought process in taking Jones and Golladay is if they can get me a combined 24 points (10 catches 130 yards and a touchdown) then I'll take it. Obviously, the upside is much higher and Xavier Rhodes is extremely limited in warmups.
Warning about Miami Field Conditions vs Jets
This was the same stadium last night that the Dolphins are going to play in. There's a lot of reports coming out that the field conditions are less than optimal in Miami due to the rain and the college game.
I don't know what to make of it, I've pulled players from that game, but mostly because I wasn't in love with anyone in that game anyway.
Favorite GPP Lineup
I'm going to be avoiding some of the more popular plays this week in GPP (Newton, Sutton, Gurley, Hunt, McCaffrey). The reason is I can make a case that the wide receivers have the same if not a great upside and no one is going to be on them.
To view ownership percentages done by FBG Steve Buzzard, go here.
FanDuel
https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2018-dfs-percent-rostered-week09
DraftKings
https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2018-dfs-percent-rostered-week09
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To view ownership percentages done by FBG Steve Buzzard, go here.
FanDuel
https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2018-dfs-percent-rostered-week09
DraftKings
https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2018-dfs-percent-rostered-week09
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Week 9 Cash Lineup
This is a situation where my lineup on DraftKings looks completely different than it does on FanDuel, and while I wish I could give out my DraftKings lineup, they prevent that in their community guidelines.
On DraftKings, I am not running out Gurley in cash, instead, I am pairing McCaffrey and Hunt in the same lineup.
Here's my FanDuel lineup this week. One thing that I thought about doing was going with both Golladay and Jones in the same lineup and getting a majority of the passing yards in that game. Same thing with Emmanuel Sanders and Courtland Sutton. However, this week, I went with Treadwell cheap, in order to be able to spend up on Kareem Hunt and Todd Gurley.
I can't get over the Fitzpatrick price and how cheap it is.
On DraftKings, I am not running out Gurley in cash, instead, I am pairing McCaffrey and Hunt in the same lineup.
Here's my FanDuel lineup this week. One thing that I thought about doing was going with both Golladay and Jones in the same lineup and getting a majority of the passing yards in that game. Same thing with Emmanuel Sanders and Courtland Sutton. However, this week, I went with Treadwell cheap, in order to be able to spend up on Kareem Hunt and Todd Gurley.
I can't get over the Fitzpatrick price and how cheap it is.
Saturday, November 3, 2018
Heading Into Week 9
The season continues to fly by, but here we are in Week 9.
GPP Targets (Cash viable if noted)-
Last week was horrendous, let's see if we can get back to the winning side of things.
Bankroll Prior to Last Week $11,525
Net Profit (Loss)- ($1,350)
New Bankroll- $10,175
Quarterback-
For cash games this week, I think it is you either go with Cam Newton or Patrick Mahomes. This week it is really site specific, as I'm paying up for Mahomes on DraftKings, and going with Newton on FanDuel. Both are fine GPP plays as well, but Newton might be a little bit too popular for me this week in GPP's.
GPP plays-
Ryan Fitzpatrick- FanDuel
Baker Mayfield- FanDuel/DraftKings
Aaron Rodgers is a tremendous GPP play on the all-day slates.
Running Back-
The question this week is whether to pay up for Todd Gurley or not. New Orleans has been great against the run this season, but Todd Gurley is largely matchup proof. At the moment, Gurley is not in my cash game lineup, but that definitely could change in the next 24 hours. The reasons for it are
Top Options- Cash and GPP
Todd Gurley- Needs no explanation. If you can fit him in, go with it.
Kareem Hunt- I love Kareem Huntt his week particularly on DraftKings, but really in all formats. We saw what James Conner did against this Browns defense last week and with no Joe Schobert in the middle, along with a struggling defensive line outside of Myles Garrett, this is a tremendous opportunity for Hunt to have a big day in a game in which the Chiefs should be able to control.
Christian McCaffrey- We saw last week what Joe Mixon was able to do against this banged up Tampa Bay defense that is missing Kwon Alexander, Vita Vea and possibly Gerald McCoy. This defense has also struggled against receiving backs, allowing two backs to go for over 100 yards receiving. McCaffrey is my favorite play on DraftKings this week and is serviceable on FanDuel, but is not a must play.
Nick Chubb- This backfield is Nick Chubb's at the moment, and he remains too cheap on both sites, but in particular DraftKings his price is way too low. The Chiefs have allowed running backs since Week 3 to run for 127 yards per game which is the fourth-most in the NFL over that time period.
Latavius Murray- This Lions defense has been one of the worst in the NFL this season and even with Snacks Harrison being added to the team showed very little allowing Chris Carson to have a big day last week. The Lions are allowing the most rushing yards per game in the NFL and this is a tremendous opportunity for Murray this week.
Philip Lindsay (Might be a flex spot on FanDuel in cash)
Adrian Peterson- FanDuel only
Lamar Miller
Isaiah Crowell- DraftKings Cash Viable
Wide Receivers
The top end receivers this week don't really intrigue me in cash, I'm going with more middle of the pack guys.
Top Option- Cash and GPP
Emmanuel Sanders- Should benefit from Demaryius Thomas being traded and his price is too cheap around the industry.
Marvin Jones- Xavier Rhodes should shadow Kenny Golladay, leaving Jones with the better matchup of the two. Both players are in play due to the Golden Tate trade, but prefer Jones this week.
Cooper Kupp- Going up against P.J. Williams who is one of the worst cornerbacks in the NFL. Plus his grandfather is being recognized by the Saints during this game if you're into the narratives.
Courtland Sutton- DraftKings Cash- Sutton is too cheap and should be on your DraftKings roster. You can do it on FanDuel, but you probably don't have to as he does carry some risk even though he should have a solid floor replacing Demaryius Thomas.
Danny Amendola- Prefer on DraftKings- Nice floor this week
GPP Targets (Cash viable if noted)-
Sammy Watkins- (Cash viable on DraftKings at $4,900)
Michael Thomas- Marcus Peters has really struggled this year and this game should be a shootout.
Tight End-
Top Option- Cash and GPP
Travis Kelce-I'm trying to pay up for Kelce in almost every lineup. The Browns have not played any tight ends this season and the only one they did they allowed Jared Cook to go for 110/2 touchdowns. Kelce should be a focal point of this game and a complete mismatch for the Browns.
GPP Targets (Cash viable if noted)-
David Njoku- (Cash game viable play on FanDuel just because his price is too cheap)
Greg Olsen
Trey Burton
Jeff Heurman- (Cash game viable on DraftKings if you're just looking to punt the position)
Defense-
I don't pay up for defenses, but the Chicago Bears are extremely enticing this week. However, with that said, I'm going with the Buffalo Bills in all contests. Simply too cheap especially on FanDuel where they are the site minimum, going up against Chicago at home and Trubisky has thrown some interceptions this season.
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