Having done this for 8 years, I've had two losing seasons. The first was year 1 back in 2011 where I was still learning. The second was 2014 as I was chasing live finals pretty hard, made one, but finished very low in it. The third year is likely going to be 2018.
At the end of this season, I need to go back and look at prior seasons and see what if anything I was doing differently. The reality is that 2018 seems like a difficult year for cash games, as seemingly every week there are players that you absolutely have to have or you're just going to lose. Here's where I'm at after 5 hours of reflection.
So what changed?
The first thing is that I don't think my bankroll management has been as tight as it should have been. I've come out on the wrong side of the high dollar contests with decent lineups and had I stuck with my strategy, I would be much closer to break even or even up a little bit.
The second thing I'm doing is just making bad lineups. There is no excuse to it other than recognizing that you're doing it and make corrections. I think college football likely has a large portion to do with this (which I manage for Footballguys as well) as the last few seasons has been 100% building lineups on Thursday-Saturday.
Are cash games still beatable?This is the first question I asked myself when dealing with the frustration I have been going through this year. My answer is that they are absolutely still beatable yes that they are still beatable. I look at as my process is flawed.
So where do we go from here?
The first change I'm going to make is more awareness and recognition of ownership. This was not something that I did last season or this season as I tend to like to live in my own bubble and trust my process. The reality is a lot of weeks my process yields the same guy in terms of ownership. Weeks like this week, I didn't really have a strong take about any of the running backs. So much so, that I ended up on Theo FREAKING Riddick in cash. In hindsight that was unbelievably stupid. Had I been more aware, I likely would have went off of Riddick and forced in Barkley along with other changes.
The second change that I'm going to make is I'm going to build my cash game on Thursday/Friday before any college football responsibilities instead of Saturday Night/Sunday. A large part of this has to do with just letting a lineup marinate in your mind.
Will any of this help?
Honestly who knows, but what I'm not going to do is just say that this is due to random variance. It would be easy for me to write this and explain how this is just variance in the process and say the difference between a 7-10 year and a 10-7 year will balance each other out over the long run. While that is true, the reality is that I have sucked this year and need to improve.
Devin, thanks for your honest insight. I too have had a down year. While there is variance in the plays, it comes down to missing on the mid and low priced guys who go off. Thanks to the “Sharp Report” I see that my Lineup builds aren’t much off from those and in some cases better. The last three weeks have just been brutal though. Good Luck going forward!
ReplyDeleteDon't be so hard on yourself. I love your insight. I had Lamar, Barkley, Zeke, Hopkins, and KJ... still lost my cash games... it simply came down to one guy...I had Cooper, or Corey, they had Trequan or Hilton. We ALL knew this was gonna be a tough week. One player difference was all it took. Hindsight is easy, making the tough calls BEFORE the games is what we expect you to do for us... so we can build optimal lineups. We don't HAVE to follow your EVERY move, but you ALWAYS LEAD us in the right direction. My lineups were a disaster on Wednesday, but after Powergrid, The Football Guys insight, and your blog...I managed to zero in on a lineup or 2, and spread it out amongst different DFS games, and I actually came out up a couple bucks. Am I happy, not really. I wanted the big wins.... but I would have lost EVERYTHING without your insight... and I thank you, and look forward to hearing from you next week,as I ALWAYS DO.
ReplyDelete#jokerjordan818
Thanks needed this. Still going to work harder to be better, but definitely needed this.
DeleteP.S. sorry, I've been having some issues sorting out my blogger profile, but you know who I am... as I'm constantly tagging you on twitter as well.... sorry
ReplyDeleteNFL dfs gets sharper every year. simply put its hard to cash consistently. There are 2 things I want to point out as an observation...1. 5050s and dbl ups are a legit strong strategy..My lineup put up 129.56 today, nothing special BUT I was positive because I cashed in every 5050 and dbl up. Everyone in this blog is good enough to beat 50%-60% of the field consistently. // missed in trp-quint-gpp.. But is was positive cash day......2. RB's are king again. 10 yrs ago or so rbs ruled fantasy football, then ppr wrs ruled. Now RBs are king again. Spend up for the Gurleys-Zekes-DJs-Kamara-Gordon-Barkley, etc. They are where the its at today. Worth their weight in gold. forget these cheap Riddick type backs. Spend up and go cheaper at wr..thats my 2 cents
ReplyDeleteI've said it before, but depending on your bankroll 50/50's and double ups make a ton of sense. However, trying to get decent volume makes the swings pretty tough for 50/50 and double ups.
DeleteAgree with spending up at RB and down at WR, the NFL is changing and I need to change my game.
Don't beat yourself up Devin, sounds like you have already recognized some changes you need to make in your process and player selection (pay up for the stud rbs). Those high dollar h2h's can make or break your bankroll, especially when your only playing 1 or 2 of them, you can be on the wrong side of variance for multiple weeks with or without a strong lineup. Appreciate the work you do at Football Guys and the transparency you provide in this blog. We can all learn and get better from it....on to next week!!!
ReplyDeleteDevin Can’t thank you enough for your help. I’ve been following your advice for years and really appreciate the insight and knowledge you share. The beauty of this crazy DFS game we play is that no matter the previous weeks results we live to fight another day! Keep up the excellent work!
ReplyDeleteAlso....We have a big Thanksgiving gsme slate coming up. Hope you can steer us in the right direction.
ReplyDeleteHonesty about performance from a DFS tout? Pretty sure this puts you on the industry blacklist.
ReplyDeleteAppreciate your work and willingness to take us behind the scenes of your thought process