Saturday, October 29, 2016

The Blog is Back- Looking Towards Week 8- Hoopsguys Announcement

It's been a crazy week for me. For those of you who haven't heard yet, I was fortunate enough to be asked to manage a new site called Hoopsguys.com which is a sister site to Footballguys.com. We will be 100% free up until Thanksgiving. We have a great team of 15 staffers who are going to be contributing, so check us out if you are looking for some NBA DFS advice.

Now let's head into week 8. The pricing is really soft so how do we deal with this? It's really simple, we need to join more cash games and stick with the H2H strategy and let other people make mistakes.  With how soft the pricing is, it is not a great GPP week, as you typically want to be contrarian in GPP's and on a point/dollar basis it is difficult to not start some of the top end guys.

This week I am making two cash game lineups, the reason for this is there are so many good cash game plays that it's hard to isolate just one lineup.

QB-
Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston.

I am leaning with Luck and Ryan, even though I really like Winston and had him as my #1 guy earlier in the week, the issue is that the volume that Jacquizz Rodgers is seeing is hurting the Tampa Bay passing game. I will stack Winston with Evans in some GPP's.

RB- 
Devonte Booker- Start him in all of your cash lineups, he is too cheap not to start this week.

Other Options-
Spencer Ware
Ezekiel Elliott
Christine Michael

WR- 
Mike Evans is the top option on FanDuel. His price dropped after last weeks two touchdown performance.

Other options
Julio Jones- He can easily be fit into your lineup with the weak pricing.
Amari Cooper
Brandon Marshall
Larry Fitzgerald

TE-
Gary Barnidge- With Josh McCown starting this week, Barnidge was the #2 overall tight end last year when McCown was the starting quarterback. He is a target hog, and should easily reach value as his price is depressed from all of the different quarterbacks that have played for the Browns this year.

Other options-
Jimmy Graham- Revenge Game
Kyle Rudolph
Rob Gronkowski

Sunday, October 23, 2016

Big Week


I had previously lost two consecutive $270 H2H contests, so decided to go for broke and join a $535 h2h, here is how it ended up.

Change in cash game lineup

Going with Jack Doyle just based on blocking opponents who are going to start him as he seems to be the most popular tight end on the board this week.


Cash Game Lineup

Going Kendall Wright is a bit of a scary thing, but with the news of LeSean McCoy playing, it forced me into not starting Gillislee and going up to Spencer Ware. Wright had a big game last week and is finally healthy as he saw 9 targets last week.


GPP Core-
Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Jacquizz Rodgers

Saturday, October 22, 2016

Chalk Week

This week is going to be full of the same composition of cash game lineups. With that said be careful, as in many cases it could come down to a kicker or a defense and which one you choose. I will be posting my cash game lineup and my GPP core later tonight or early tomorrow.

QB-
Tom Brady
Geno Smith
Matt Ryan

I am leaning Brady here, just because he has been on an absolute tear this year since coming back from suspension. Pittsburgh is currently allowing the third most passing yards this season as they have allowed 293 yards.

Ryan will be popular as they have the highest projected total for the day, but the running attack scares me off of him compared to Brady.

I don't see a reason to have to go with a player like a Geno Smith or a Colin Kaepernick this week. There is enough value out there that you can spend up at the QB position and make someone else make the mistake of going cheap.

RB-
There are three running backs who everyone is going to be on this week and for good reason.

The first two are Jacquizz Rodgers and Mike Gillislee who are going to be extremely popular due to their price and their opportunity, both are facing elite matchups in San Francisco and Miami. I prefer Rodgers over Gillislee as we have seen the production from Rodgers last week

The other way to go for running back is Demarco Murray. We all saw what Lamar Miller was able to do against the Colts defense that has really struggled against the run this season and for the last several seasons against Chuck Pagano.

One key thing to note here is that if Jamaal Charles is inactive. Spencer Ware jumps up to a must play over Mike Gillislee for me. 

WR-
Mike Evans and Julio Jones are going to be the two most popular wide receivers this week. I am likely going to be off of Julio as at $9,200 on FanDuel he is just too expensive for me to trust as he has been inconsistent this year. He only has only two games over 100 yards and while the upside is there he draws a tough matchup against Casey Heyward who is ranked as one of the best cover corners in the NFL.

TE-
For me, I am figuring out a way to get Rob Gronkowski in my lineups this week he is clearly in his own tier this week and possibly the rest of the season as long as he stays healthy.

Monday, October 17, 2016

Week 6- Total Win-Loss by Week

Here is a breakdown of week by week my H2H record. Let me put this frankly. 54% isn't good enough. We are aiming to be at a 60% rate to grow the bankroll. Started off hot, but the last two weeks have been a little bit of a struggle to get things going.

I am going to continue to do the big head to heads as I think people enjoy those, this isn't something that I would typically do if I'm trying to grow the bankroll, but this also has an entertainment piece to the blog as well, so feel it is only right to have you guys track along at home to my roster compared to others playing big h2h games. We are going to go with the martingale strategy for the next two weeks on these, also something not recommended, but I am down $540 in these two contests, so I am going to be entering a $535 H2H this week. If I lose that I will be entering a $1k H2H the following week. Not something that is recommended, but it will keep it interesting.

Week Win Loss %
1 95 7 93%
2 78 42 65%
3 59 81 42%
4 84 56 60%
5 49 91 35%
6 54 86 39%
Total 419 363 54%

New Bankroll- $9,324
Total Loss- ($676)

Overall considering $540 of this loss is built into two $270 h2h contests, I am not that worried trust the process and let's get back out there.

Sunday, October 16, 2016

Cash Game Lineup and $270 H2H

Going back to the well again with a $270 H2H. It looks like we have very similar lineups where he has Kelvin Benjamin and Cameron Meredith and a different defense, where I have Michael Thomas and T.Y. Hilton and the Giants Defense.

I used this cash lineup in all of my lineups this week.


Saturday, October 15, 2016

Weather Tomorrow- Follow the Money

You're going to hear a lot about weather tomorrow. Most of it is just smoke and mirrors, however here is how I adjust to the weather. If Vegas cares and lowers the Over/Under, I care. Otherwise, I don't adjust how I am playing at all.

Here is how I track where the over/under opens and where it is currently at.
http://www.covers.com/odds/football/nfl-spreads.aspx

Image result for money trail

Week 6 GPP Core and Thoughts Heading Into the Week

Thoughts Heading into week 6.

GPP Core-
This week I am only going with a two-man core with Cam Newton and Delanie Walker. The reason for this is that I fully trust that these two are going to pay off their salary. With that said, I will have a lot of exposure to LeSean McCoy, Demarco Murray, Buffalo Defense, I just won't be 100% which is typically what I consider my core.

The reason is that pricing this week forcing you into certain players, so if I was to lock into Cam, Murray, McCoy, Walker, Buffalo. I would not be able to get as many combinations wide receivers that I like this week.

QB-

Cam Newton-
Cam Newton's concussion is going to scare people off this week, as they're going to gravitate towards Brady and Roethlisberger on the high end and Hoyer/Alex Smith on the low end. This is a perfect opportunity for Cam Newton this season for both cash games and GPP's. In the NFL, if you enter the concussion protocol they are not going to clear you until you are 100% healthy. Last season, Cam dominated the Saints accounting for 646 yards passing, 7 touchdowns and 82 yards rushing with a touchdown. This is projected to be the highest scoring game on the day, and the concussion will scare people off, but I am going to be all in on Cam this week.

Brian Hoyer
Hoyer has thrown for 300+ yards and 2+ touchdowns in his last three games and is going to be popular this week. However, I think most people are just looking at the matchup and seeing Jacksonville and not putting any additional research into it. The Jaguars defense against the pass has actually been the third best in the NFL this year and they have faced Aaron Rodgers, Phillip Rivers, and Andrew Luck. Hoyer is not in this class of quarterback, so I will be fading him this week.

Running Back
This is a week that you want to find a way to pay up for running backs as the top three running backs all have elite matchups. Deciding between Demarco Murray, LeVeon Bell, and LeSean McCoy is going to be the real decision this week in cash games. This makes it really difficult to fill out a roster, so if you want to spend up on a top end WR, you could look at Ryan Mathews in a great matchup against the Redskins, but Mathews is always susceptible to someone stealing carries or getting injured.

Wide Receiver
This position is really tough this week, as the high-end guys are too expensive to use such as Antonio Brown or A.J. Green. There are some very intriguing plays in good matchups in the mid-range with Larry Fitzgerald, Marvin Jones, Kelvin Benjamin, and T.Y. Hilton. I think T.Y Hilton is a GPP play only, as he is too boom/bust every week even with Moncrief out for me. He had the highest bust rate of any top wide receiver in our preseason coverage at about 40% of his games with 10 points or less over the last three seasons.

On the low-end, there are a few names that will allow you to save some salary this week. Michael Thomas, Tavon Austin, and Cameron Meredith. Thomas is coming off of back to back touchdown games, and facing a Panthers secondary that is one of the worst in the NFL. Meredith is stepping in for the injured Kevin White and saw 12 targets last week. Tavon Austin is averaging 9 targets per week this year, and just hasn't found the end-zone. If you can guarantee nine targets from a player at his price, I think he is a very intriguing play, and hopefully finds the end-zone on a run or a pass.

Tight End
Find a way to pay up for Delanie Walker this week. Cleveland has allowed 21 receptions, five touchdowns, and 257 yards in the last two games against tight ends. This has the making for a big Delanie Walker game this week

Thursday, October 13, 2016

Heading Into Week 6- Breaking the Slump

Three down weeks in a row is  a slump. However, week 4 I was profitable in cash games, which was offset by losses in GPP so not sure if it is an official slump. I feel as if my process is still the same one as I have used over a large sample size and three bad weeks in a row isn't going to deter me from my process.

Last week I only hit 35% of my cash games which is a season low. However thankfully, a few GPP's where I had Martellus Bennett saved me so my total loss from last week was only $272.

New Bankroll- $9,777
Total Loss for the year- ($233)



Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Lesson Learned- Trust Your Process

After Monday's game, I don't want to hear the name, Derek Anderson. It wouldn't have helped me in my big H2H contest, but 12 points would have gotten me close to breaking even. Instead it is another poor week, and this one is all my fault.



I got suckered into group think this week and changed my cash game rosters at the last minute to be more chalky. If you look at my value consensus rankings almost all of them were on point. I had Brady as my top QB, Jordan Howard as my second running back ahead of Jerick McKinnon, had Ezekiel Elliott as my #4 running back, and Zach Miller as my #1 tight end, Brandon McManus as my #1 kicker. Did I use any of Brady, Howard, Elliott, Miller, McManus? Not a single one was used in my cash game lineups.


Instead, I play, Deandre Washington who I didn't have ranked, A.J. Green who I didn't have ranked, Odell Beckham who I had ranked 10th, and Zach Ertz who I had ranked 8th at the position and the results showed as I only won 35% of my H2H contests this week which simply isn't good enough.

So what is the lesson here, and how do I learn/grow from it. First, trust your process, I had a little bit too much time this weekend reading into what other people thought across the industry. I realized that Washington, Beckham, Green, Ertz were going to be popular, and even though I didn't have him on my list I felt compelled to play defensive and start them instead of trusting my process. I spend 20+ hours a week on my analysis and projections and for me to be so easily swayed by what the industry thinks is a huge mistake on my part.

The saving grace here was Martellus Bennett who saved me in a lot of GPP formats. I mentioned him on the podcast that we do as my top guy this week and had him ranked as my #2 TE (although it didn't show up on the consensus ranking due to a coding error)

Footballguys Power Grid

DFS Round Table

Sunday, October 9, 2016

Let's Have Some Fun- $270 H2H



Decided to throw caution out the window today and join a $270 H2H on top of all of the other cash game lineups that I had. The reason being I loved Derek Anderson this week and was hoping the opponent wouldn't start him which it worked out now we just need the score to reflect that.

Saturday, October 8, 2016

Cash Game Lineup

This week I am only playing the Sunday Monday slate for cash games as I love Derek Anderson. Much like a few weeks ago where I had to have Drew Brees. For Anderson to pay off his salary he only realistically needs 10-12 points which should be able to be accomplished rather easily in a great matchup against Tampa Bay.

Deandre Washington is a great spot here this week as he fills in for the injured Latavius Murray. He will be splitting time with Jalen Richard, however my expectations are that Washington will get a majority of the carries and Richard will stay in the change of pace type running back.


Heading Into Week 5- Attacking the Quarterback Position

There are really only three quarterbacks that I am looking at this week as I make my cash game lineups and GPP lineups.

Tom Brady-
This one is more of a narrative than anything else, as while the Patriots are heavy favorites in this game, Brady hasn't practiced with his team since the preseason, Cleveland Browns Stadium has been a little bit tough compared to elite quarterbacks, as Brees, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees have not thrown for 300 yards or 3+ touchdowns at the Browns stadium. There are likely a number of factors due to this such as the wind coming off the lake, but also the blowout factor where the Browns just don't put up enough of a fight to compete and the Patriots run the ball in the second half. We saw this last week where Kirk Cousins came out early throwing the ball and then they ran the ball a lot with Matt Jones once they got out to a 14-0 lead.

Ben Roethlisberger-
Roethlisberger is projected to score the most points this week in my projections. He has a dream matchup against the Jets who have allowed 286 passing yards per game so far this season and are the second best in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, which creates a dynamic where the Steelers are going to pass early and often in this game. Adding to the great matchup is Ben Roethlisberger at home. At home, over the last three seasons, Ben is averaging 2.9 touchdown passes per game.

Derek Anderson-
Derek Anderson will be starting at quarterback for the Carolina Panthers and is only $5,000 on FanDuel. This is a great spot for Anderson, as his price allows you to spend up for a lot of top plays this week. Anderson showed that he is a more than capable backup in the league as he threw for 172 yards in just 11 minutes last week against the Falcons filling in for Cam Newton. He has a huge arm which should open up opportunities for Ted Ginn and Kelvin Benjamin on deep balls. Interceptions are a concern for Anderson as he threw two in just 11 minutes last week, but for him to pay off his salary he 10-12 FanDuel points for cash games which is 250 yards and no touchdowns. It seems very likely that he will pay off value and makes it tough not to use him in cash games. If you do not want to use him, play the Sunday Only slate.



Wednesday, October 5, 2016

Cash Game Selection-Head to Head vs 50/50's



Cash game Selection

For those that have been following along with the blog so far this year, you'll know that I mostly join head to head contests as my choice of contests for cash games. I have explained it a little bit in a few different posts but have not dedicated an entire post to it yet this season. The primary reason that I join head to head contests is to mitigate the risk caused by 50/50's and double ups. In 50/50's and double ups no matter how many you join it is an all or nothing strategy each week.


There is nothing worse than finishing in the 49th percentile of lineups in a 50/50 or Double Up and losing almost all of your money invested in a given week. Having this happen a few weeks in a row back in 2014, where I just missed the cut line in my 50/50's, I decided to make a change in the way that I am playing. I am able to get more of my bankroll in play each week if I join a high number of H2H games as the overall risk to my bankroll is lower since it is not an all or nothing strategy. Ultimately the downside of the decreased risk is the decreased upside, if I have a lineup that is in the 80th percentile, I am not going to win all of my contests, I am likely only going to win 80% of my contests, where a 50/50 I would win all of my contests. Ultimately, I am ok with the decreased upside for the decreased risk, as the goal is to grow the bankroll and not let a few bad weeks kill your season.







Tuesday, October 4, 2016

Week 4 Recap- What Went Right, What Went Wrong

Week 4 was one that was up and down. Cam Newton leaving early in the game with a concussion really hurt. Also, I posted two lineups last week, one which was my optimal lineup had four players from the Chargers vs Saints game, and I should have listened to my projections, as I swapped Hunter Henry and Travis Benjamin (20.9 FanDuel points) for Dennis Pitta and Quincy Enunwa (12.2 FanDuel points). This was the difference between a great day and a mediocre day. This was the second week in a row that I was just slightly negative. Hopefully next week we get back on track.


Starting Bankroll- $10,087
Cash Games Entered-1,400
Cash Game Return- $1,512
Total Cash Game Return- $112

GPP Invested- $150
GPP Return- $0

Total Week 4 Return on Investment (38)
New Bankroll- $10,049

What went right?
Le'Veon Bell-
He's back, and it paid off if you started him in his first week back from suspension. The Steelers got Le'Veon the ball early and often in this game, and he looked great. Bell had 178 total yards in this game, and while he was unable to find the end zone he added five receptions for a total of 20.3 FanDuel points. Bell is one of if not the most versatile backs in the league and should be considered in every format every week. There was some concern heading into the week regarding Deangelo Williams taking snaps away from Bell, however, Bell was able on the field for 52 of 59 snaps for the Steelers while Williams was only out there for 17 snaps last week.

Melvin Gordon-This is a situation where it is hard to say that I got it right, but the end result was a running back who reached 2.75x his value. It might be time to come to reality and just realize that Melvin Gordon as a running back is the same guy as he was last year, he is just scoring touchdowns at an unsustainable rate as he is on pace for 24 touchdowns this year. This was a premiere matchup, and while Gordon had 79 total yards, he only had 36 yards rushing on 19 carries which is scary going forward for the former first round pick.

Antonio Brown-Antonio Brown could have had a monster game, but the game script just didn't go his way, as he only had five targets all of which were in the first half of this game. However, he scored two touchdowns early and that was enough to get to 2x his value.

What went wrong?
Cam Newton celebrating while going for a two-point conversion early in the fourth quarter. To make matters worse, this would have been an unbelievable garbage time situation and Derek Anderson took advantage of this as he threw for 172 yards and two touchdowns in just a quarter of play.

Cole Beasley ended up ok, but only due to a long reception at the end of the

Washington Defense-The Browns offense maybe better than I have been giving them credit for being. This is the second straight week I have tried to pick on Cody Kessler, and they have scored 20+ in each of these two games.

My GPP core-
Kirk Cousins started the game off hot with two touchdowns on his first two drives and looked like he was going to have a great game. The team took a 14-0 lead and then shifted to running the ball on Cleveland and allowed the Browns to climb back into it in a game that the Browns should have won. This was disappointing, as it looked as if the Redskins kept their foot on the gas, Cousins had the making of a huge game.

Deandre Hopkins had his worst statistical game since his rookie season in 2013. This is a Titans team that allowed a receiver to go for over 100 yards in each of their previous three games, and Hopkins was only able to have one reception for four yards.

Sunday, October 2, 2016

Down Goes Cam

Cam Newton leaves with a concussion on a two-point conversion. It was a completely unnecessary play as he tried to showboat and walk into the end zone. He currently has 15.6 points.

Going to need some help, the good news for me is that he was owned in about 70% of my H2H contests

Week 4 Cash Game Lineup- Good Luck Everybody


The first lineup that is posted is the lineup that I will be playing in cash. The second lineup is my optimal lineup based on projections, however, I will not be playing that one in cash due to having too much exposure in the San Diego game.


Optimal lineup, but I won't be using this due too much exposure in the SD game

Saturday, October 1, 2016

Week 4 Notes and Thoughts- Cash Lineup and GPP Plays

I am going to start posting my cash game lineup before lock, this will likely be posted on Saturday Night or Sunday Morning before lock so be sure to check that out as part of your lineup setting process.

Cash Game Strategy

Quarterback-
Cam Newton or Kirk Cousins-

These are really the only two that I am considering this week for cash games. Expect Cam to have a big game after really struggling last week against Minnesota. He goes up against an Atlanta Falcons defense that is averaging allowing 30 points per game. The Panthers are projected to score 28 points in this game.

Cousins is a guy who is a little bit risky but allows you to save some money this week. In games that the Redskins won by at least a touchdown or more last year, Cousins had 16 touchdown passes in 5 games. Cousins has averaged 330 yards per game passing this season, and the question is only whether or not he is going to score the touchdowns needed to pay off his salary as he only has 3 passing touchdowns so far this season. He is a great GPP play this week and if you need the savings he is a good cash play.


Running Back
Melvin Gordon-
Most of us watched Monday Night Football this week and saw just how bad this New Orleans rush defense is. Melvin Gordon has been significantly better compared to last year. Melvin Gordon has scored a touchdown in each game this season and I expect him to do this again this week. 

Other top plays-
Le'Veon Bell- When Le'Veon Bell returned last year from his suspension, he they fed him the ball early and often. Look for Bell to return this week and have 
Ezekiel Elliott- We all saw what Christine Michael was able to do last week against this San Francisco defense. Now Elliott who had 32 touches last week takes on this team. There is a little bit of concern with Dez likely missing this game that they'll load the box to stop Elliott similar to what they did to Gurley in week one.
Jordan Howard- as a punt play only, I like him better on PPR sites.

Wide Receiver

Terrelle Pryor- A wide receiver who saw 14 snaps at quarterback and 14 passing targets last week. Also, news that he won't be shadowed by Josh Norman is a big bump for Pryor in this game. Cash game-play is all about consistency, and for him to get those snaps as a quarterback will get him guaranteed points that other wide receivers won't get.


Other Considerations
Antonio Brown- If you can fit him in, play him very week
Cole Beasley- With Dez Bryant out, Cole Beasley becomes the guy that you want here in Dallas, he has been great so far this season and has found an instant connection with Dak Prescott. He has yet to find the end zone but I expect he has a good chance this week.
Quincy Enuwa- The matchup is tough going up against Seattle, but the Jets are going to have to throw the ball in this game, and with Eric Decker out, Enuwa should see enough targets to pay off his salary that has yet to increase. So far this season he has 25 targets in three games, and that should increase this week with Decker out.
Any WR in the SD/NO game- This is projected to be the highest scoring game of the week and possibly of the year based on Vegas totals. Having a share of a wide receiver whether it be Cooks, Benjamin, Tyrell Williams is definitely in play.

GPP core this week- Only going with 3 in the core, as there are a lot of players that I like this week at various positions.
Kirk Cousins
Deandre Hopkins
Josh Lambo