Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Lesson Learned- Trust Your Process

After Monday's game, I don't want to hear the name, Derek Anderson. It wouldn't have helped me in my big H2H contest, but 12 points would have gotten me close to breaking even. Instead it is another poor week, and this one is all my fault.



I got suckered into group think this week and changed my cash game rosters at the last minute to be more chalky. If you look at my value consensus rankings almost all of them were on point. I had Brady as my top QB, Jordan Howard as my second running back ahead of Jerick McKinnon, had Ezekiel Elliott as my #4 running back, and Zach Miller as my #1 tight end, Brandon McManus as my #1 kicker. Did I use any of Brady, Howard, Elliott, Miller, McManus? Not a single one was used in my cash game lineups.


Instead, I play, Deandre Washington who I didn't have ranked, A.J. Green who I didn't have ranked, Odell Beckham who I had ranked 10th, and Zach Ertz who I had ranked 8th at the position and the results showed as I only won 35% of my H2H contests this week which simply isn't good enough.

So what is the lesson here, and how do I learn/grow from it. First, trust your process, I had a little bit too much time this weekend reading into what other people thought across the industry. I realized that Washington, Beckham, Green, Ertz were going to be popular, and even though I didn't have him on my list I felt compelled to play defensive and start them instead of trusting my process. I spend 20+ hours a week on my analysis and projections and for me to be so easily swayed by what the industry thinks is a huge mistake on my part.

The saving grace here was Martellus Bennett who saved me in a lot of GPP formats. I mentioned him on the podcast that we do as my top guy this week and had him ranked as my #2 TE (although it didn't show up on the consensus ranking due to a coding error)

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