I have received a number of questions about how I select opponents in my head to head games. Here is a quick strategy guide. If there are any questions let me know or follow me on Twitter
How do I select games?
In other sports, I keep track of my win/loss record against every opponent that I face so I can try to tell which players are the one's that I want to target or avoid. For football, I really don't do this, as the number of opponents is so much larger that it makes it difficult. Also, there is so much more information available in cash games for football so most people can become skilled very quickly utilizing very inexpensive subscription services such as Footballguys.com and others. What I do for football is I like to just take on a number of games at a certain price point that allows me to do so. For the purposes of this blog, I am playing $5 and $10 h2h games and playing up to the budget that I post each week which typically is around 100-150 head to head games. This is obviously extreme and not what most people have time to enter that many head to head contests.
If you are playing less than 20-30 contests per week, I would likely just play 50/50's as at that point you deal with too much weekly variance and don't get a true statistical view of the full range of outcomes. Essentially you can get unlucky have a great lineup and then face better lineups.
Why don't I post games?
The short answer is just time. If I were to post all of my contests at once, I don't want more exposure against any one single player than I need to have. With FanDuel not having a matchup blocker, this poses a risk for me that I could end up with more exposure against one opponent than I want to have. Also, as someone who posts a lot of what I am thinking on a week to week basis on this blog, I have very little incentive to make my contests available for people to use my picks to block me of my top plays.
Don't be afraid of experts
If someone is posting their strategy for the week and you disagree with some of their top plays on that day, then join their head to head. This is going to be unpopular amongst some of my peers, but not all of the experts are profitable players. If you are reading this, you are likely familiar with some of the top players in DFS, and potentially even read some of their work. If you were against Drew Brees or Ezekiel Elliott last week and I posted games, then take my games. To be honest, I don't have a ton of time to read other experts writing as I have my own writing to work on, but I find that reading others helpful in that I know their mindset and their thinking.
Thursday, September 29, 2016
Wednesday, September 28, 2016
Week 3 Recap- Disappointing Week
Took me a day to get over the week one loss. I was 1.2 points away from Drew Brees on Monday night from breaking even. Overall I ended up with my first loss of the season, but we will be talking some great strategies this week as we look to rebound based on this disappointing result.
Cash Games
Total Entered- $1,400
Total Return- $1,062 (42% of H2H games won)
One key thing here is that had I entered all 50/50 games I would not have made the cut and would have lost all of my cash games. This is the exact reason why I play H2H over 50/50's is for weeks such as this one where my lineup was ok, but still in the bottom half of lineups.
GPP's
Total Entered- $150
Total Return $165
Total Bankroll Impact $15
Starting Bankroll- $10,410
Week 3 Net profit/loss- -$323
New Bankroll- $10,087
What worked
Drew Brees
My strategy to start Drew Brees was exactly what I wanted. Playing the Sunday/Monday slate I had predicted that Brees' ownership would be lower than it should be in cash games. He was only owned in about 15% of my head to head contests
Ezekiel Elliott-
I wrote up Elliott as my top running back play, and he put up 160 total yards with two receptions. Dallas had three rushing touchdowns on the day, but unfortunately, Elliott did not score a touchdown. The analysis was solid here, as touchdowns can be volatile from week to week, but a player who had 32 touches for 160 yards is a guy who you want in your cash game lineups
Antonio Brown
Antonio Brown is an absolute stud, start him every week in cash games. He had a poor week two, but he is a guy who you just put in your lineup to start the week.
Michael Thomas in GPP's
I wrote up Michael Thomas in my week 3 preview, as Willie Snead was questionable/doubtful heading into the week. On FanDuel with no late swap, his ownership was much lower than it should have been. This saved my night as I had written off a lot of my GPP lineups due to being so far back. At $5,300 Thomas stepped up with 7 receptions for 71 yards and a touchdown.
What didn't work
Tajae Sharpe
Heading into the work, I told myself that even if Delanie Walker was out, I was not going to start Tajae Sharpe even though the matchup was great. However, on Sunday, I decided to go with put Sharpe in my cash game lineup over Michael Thomas as I didn't have a great feeling on Willie Snead's health. In hindsight, Michael Thomas would have been the right play and then spending the money elsewhere.
Travis Benjamin
I was all in on the Chargers offense with both Melvin Gordon and Christine Michael. With Danny Woodhead and Keenan Allen being out for the year, I felt the offense was going to run just those two players similar to the Steelers with Bell and Antonio Brown. This just didn't materialize, as Benjamin had 82 yards, he needed a touchdown to pay off his salary in cash games at $7,000 as he is not a high-volume receiver.
Ryan Succop
Kickers are so volatile at times. Oakland had given up the most field goals over the last two years and only gave up one in this game.Mariota had some critical turnovers in field goal range which hurt him.
Starting Melvin Gordon over Christine Michael
This was a mistake as I overvalued the 49ers defense and stop Michael similar to what they did in week one to Todd Gurley. Melvin Gordon wasn't bad, as he had 15.8 points, but for the same price Christine Michael put up 24.1. This made it tough as a lot of people had Michael based on the news of Thomas Rawls missing the game.
Cash Games
Total Entered- $1,400
Total Return- $1,062 (42% of H2H games won)
One key thing here is that had I entered all 50/50 games I would not have made the cut and would have lost all of my cash games. This is the exact reason why I play H2H over 50/50's is for weeks such as this one where my lineup was ok, but still in the bottom half of lineups.
GPP's
Total Entered- $150
Total Return $165
Total Bankroll Impact $15
Starting Bankroll- $10,410
Week 3 Net profit/loss- -$323
New Bankroll- $10,087
What worked
Drew Brees
My strategy to start Drew Brees was exactly what I wanted. Playing the Sunday/Monday slate I had predicted that Brees' ownership would be lower than it should be in cash games. He was only owned in about 15% of my head to head contests
Ezekiel Elliott-
I wrote up Elliott as my top running back play, and he put up 160 total yards with two receptions. Dallas had three rushing touchdowns on the day, but unfortunately, Elliott did not score a touchdown. The analysis was solid here, as touchdowns can be volatile from week to week, but a player who had 32 touches for 160 yards is a guy who you want in your cash game lineups
Antonio Brown
Antonio Brown is an absolute stud, start him every week in cash games. He had a poor week two, but he is a guy who you just put in your lineup to start the week.
Michael Thomas in GPP's
I wrote up Michael Thomas in my week 3 preview, as Willie Snead was questionable/doubtful heading into the week. On FanDuel with no late swap, his ownership was much lower than it should have been. This saved my night as I had written off a lot of my GPP lineups due to being so far back. At $5,300 Thomas stepped up with 7 receptions for 71 yards and a touchdown.
What didn't work
Tajae Sharpe
Heading into the work, I told myself that even if Delanie Walker was out, I was not going to start Tajae Sharpe even though the matchup was great. However, on Sunday, I decided to go with put Sharpe in my cash game lineup over Michael Thomas as I didn't have a great feeling on Willie Snead's health. In hindsight, Michael Thomas would have been the right play and then spending the money elsewhere.
Travis Benjamin
I was all in on the Chargers offense with both Melvin Gordon and Christine Michael. With Danny Woodhead and Keenan Allen being out for the year, I felt the offense was going to run just those two players similar to the Steelers with Bell and Antonio Brown. This just didn't materialize, as Benjamin had 82 yards, he needed a touchdown to pay off his salary in cash games at $7,000 as he is not a high-volume receiver.
Ryan Succop
Kickers are so volatile at times. Oakland had given up the most field goals over the last two years and only gave up one in this game.Mariota had some critical turnovers in field goal range which hurt him.
Starting Melvin Gordon over Christine Michael
This was a mistake as I overvalued the 49ers defense and stop Michael similar to what they did in week one to Todd Gurley. Melvin Gordon wasn't bad, as he had 15.8 points, but for the same price Christine Michael put up 24.1. This made it tough as a lot of people had Michael based on the news of Thomas Rawls missing the game.
Monday, September 26, 2016
Heading Into Monday Night- Rough Week
This week was a rough one, as many of the picks just didn't play out like I had thought they would. I was originally off Diggs/Sharpe, but last minute changes put me on them. I also didn't have any Christine Michael as I thought Gordon would be more popular but I faced a significant amount of Michael which hurts.
Also, the Cowboys had three rushing touchdowns and none of them went to Ezekiel Elliott who had scored in his previous two games. The Cowboys running back was great as he had 140 yards, but not scoring a touchdown hurts his overall fantasy production.
Cash-
I am currently only winning 8% of my cash games with Drew Brees still left to go. I am hoping that with a big game from Brees, I can get to about 25-30% of my cash game wins as Drew Brees was not that popular in the Sun-Mon slate. This is exactly why I targeted this slate was to have the Brees bullet remaining.
This week is a reminder for me that my strategy to play more head to heads rather than 50/50's is the right one. If I had played primarily 50/50's I would have likely lost every dollar I had invested, but I still have a chance with Brees to gain some of the investment back even if it likely will be a negative week.
Brees Output/Expected Cash Game Performance-
Without going through all the cash game results here is what I feel I will end up with from a return standpoint based on Brees' outcomes.
10 Points- 15%
20 Points 25%
30 Points- 50%
GPP-
Total GPP Entered- $150
Total GPP Return- $20
My core of Travis Benjamin, Trey Burton and Elliott not scoring the touchdown really hurt this week. I entered a few more qualifiers than I probably should have this week which those contests have a top heavy payout. I had just two lineups cash in GPP's, and neither were significant. Let's hope we can get it turned around soon in the GPP format as the good news is all it takes is one week.
Also, the Cowboys had three rushing touchdowns and none of them went to Ezekiel Elliott who had scored in his previous two games. The Cowboys running back was great as he had 140 yards, but not scoring a touchdown hurts his overall fantasy production.
Cash-
I am currently only winning 8% of my cash games with Drew Brees still left to go. I am hoping that with a big game from Brees, I can get to about 25-30% of my cash game wins as Drew Brees was not that popular in the Sun-Mon slate. This is exactly why I targeted this slate was to have the Brees bullet remaining.
This week is a reminder for me that my strategy to play more head to heads rather than 50/50's is the right one. If I had played primarily 50/50's I would have likely lost every dollar I had invested, but I still have a chance with Brees to gain some of the investment back even if it likely will be a negative week.
Brees Output/Expected Cash Game Performance-
Without going through all the cash game results here is what I feel I will end up with from a return standpoint based on Brees' outcomes.
10 Points- 15%
20 Points 25%
30 Points- 50%
GPP-
Total GPP Entered- $150
Total GPP Return- $20
My core of Travis Benjamin, Trey Burton and Elliott not scoring the touchdown really hurt this week. I entered a few more qualifiers than I probably should have this week which those contests have a top heavy payout. I had just two lineups cash in GPP's, and neither were significant. Let's hope we can get it turned around soon in the GPP format as the good news is all it takes is one week.
Sunday, September 25, 2016
Week 3- Injuries
Delanie Walker Out- Gives an upgrade to Tajae Sharpe and Demarco Murray
Rashad Jennings Out- Gives an upgrade to Shane Vereen
Joe Haden Out- Gives an upgrade to Devante Parker and Jarvis Landry
Kenyan Drake to start over Jay Ajayi
Rashad Jennings Out- Gives an upgrade to Shane Vereen
Joe Haden Out- Gives an upgrade to Devante Parker and Jarvis Landry
Kenyan Drake to start over Jay Ajayi
Saturday, September 24, 2016
Week 3 Preview
Total Bankroll $10,422
Cash games entered: $1,400 (13.8% of bankroll)
GPP games entered: $150
Total: $1,550
Cash Game Strategy-
As mentioned, I am only going to be playing in the Sun-Mon slates this week. I just can't get comfortable with the Sunday only slate for cash. I am going bigger than normal as I typically restrict myself to about 10% maximum each week. The primary reason I am going bigger than normal is the injury status of Willie Snead making Michael Thomas a risky but sneaky play. I also believe that some people will have less exposure to the Saints game than I will.
Some players that I like for this week.
Quarterback-
I have already mentioned that I will be going with Drew Brees, there just is no reason not to and it is the primary reason that I am playing the Sun-Mon slate.
Running Back-
Ezekiel Elliott is my top guy this week. It makes it difficult to go both him and Brees, but with the savings of going cheap at other positions, it is doable to have both players in your lineup.
I am going to try to find a way to get Deangelo Williams in my lineup, but I am not sure it is possible with Brees, Elliott, and Antonio Brown. If I am unable to go with Deangelo Williams I will go with Melvin Gordon.
Wide Receiver-
I have stated that I will be using Antonio Brown in every cash game this season and this week is no different.
Some other key plays here.
Stefon Diggs- #1 play on the Interactive Value Charts this week.
Travis Benjamin- Just too cheap and the injury to Woodhead should only increase his workload n the passing game against a bad Colts defense.
Michael Thomas- With Willie Snead looking like he is going to be limited, this is a guy who at $5,200 is a great value.
DeVante Parker and Jarvis Landry- Both are cheap and the Dolphins don't have much of a running attack with the injury to Arian Foster.
Jordan Matthews- At $6,900 against a Pittsburgh defense that was one of the worst in 2015. They are significantly better so far this season, but were one of the worst in 2015. Matthews is the number one target in this offense and has been off to a good start so far this year.
Tight End-
I am either going with Jacob Tamme or Trey Burton here. Both are cheap,
Defense- Start Miami
GPP Core-
RB- Ezekiel Elliott
WR- Travis Benjamin
TE- Trey Burton
D- Miami-
Cash games entered: $1,400 (13.8% of bankroll)
GPP games entered: $150
Total: $1,550
Cash Game Strategy-
As mentioned, I am only going to be playing in the Sun-Mon slates this week. I just can't get comfortable with the Sunday only slate for cash. I am going bigger than normal as I typically restrict myself to about 10% maximum each week. The primary reason I am going bigger than normal is the injury status of Willie Snead making Michael Thomas a risky but sneaky play. I also believe that some people will have less exposure to the Saints game than I will.
Some players that I like for this week.
Quarterback-
I have already mentioned that I will be going with Drew Brees, there just is no reason not to and it is the primary reason that I am playing the Sun-Mon slate.
Running Back-
Ezekiel Elliott is my top guy this week. It makes it difficult to go both him and Brees, but with the savings of going cheap at other positions, it is doable to have both players in your lineup.
I am going to try to find a way to get Deangelo Williams in my lineup, but I am not sure it is possible with Brees, Elliott, and Antonio Brown. If I am unable to go with Deangelo Williams I will go with Melvin Gordon.
Wide Receiver-
I have stated that I will be using Antonio Brown in every cash game this season and this week is no different.
Some other key plays here.
Stefon Diggs- #1 play on the Interactive Value Charts this week.
Travis Benjamin- Just too cheap and the injury to Woodhead should only increase his workload n the passing game against a bad Colts defense.
Michael Thomas- With Willie Snead looking like he is going to be limited, this is a guy who at $5,200 is a great value.
DeVante Parker and Jarvis Landry- Both are cheap and the Dolphins don't have much of a running attack with the injury to Arian Foster.
Jordan Matthews- At $6,900 against a Pittsburgh defense that was one of the worst in 2015. They are significantly better so far this season, but were one of the worst in 2015. Matthews is the number one target in this offense and has been off to a good start so far this year.
Tight End-
I am either going with Jacob Tamme or Trey Burton here. Both are cheap,
Defense- Start Miami
GPP Core-
RB- Ezekiel Elliott
WR- Travis Benjamin
TE- Trey Burton
D- Miami-
Cash Game Strategy- Week 3- FanDuel Changing Their Slates
With FanDuel announcing that they have changed their main slate to be a Sunday only slate, more people are only going to build a Sunday only game and ignore the Sun-Mon slate. For GPP's this makes sense as a majority of the GPP's are Sunday only. However, for cash games this is not the case. There are still thousands of dollars worth of contests that you can join that are Sun-Mon, and you should not restrict yourself this week to just the Sunday only contests for cash games.
Monday Night Football this week is the prime fantasy matchup especially at the quarterback position where Drew Brees on the 10th anniversary of the Saints first home game after Hurricane Katrina takes on an Atlanta Falcons team that so far has given up 290 yards passing per game to Derek Carr and Jameis Winston. I fully expect this game to be the highest scoring game of the weekend, and for cash game purposes.
While the Saints will be heavily owned on the Sun-Mon slate, there will likely still be people who overlook this game as they'll use their Sunday only lineup in the Sun-Mon slate contests. Drew Brees is a must-start this week for cash games, as he is the most predictable quarterback this week. All other quarterbacks have some sort of question heading into this week which makes it not enticing to play the Sunday only in cash games. One key injury situation to watch is whether we have any news on Willie Snead and his injured toe. If news appears that Snead is unable to go, Michael Thomas at $5,200 is a must play as he will become the top red zone threat and the number two receiver behind Brandin Cooks. Using Thomas in a Sun-Mon GPP even if we don't have clarity is a great strategy as he will be under-owned due to people being scared off of due to the unclear situation. Even if Snead plays I expect he will be limited.
Another player I like in this game is Jacob Tamme at $5,500. Tamme has had 8 targets in each of the first two games, and his price has not moved much at all. With Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu both banged up, I expect Tamme to possibly see double-digit targets as the Falcons are going to have to throw the ball to keep pace in this game.
When I release my cash game lineup tomorrow, it will be using the Sun-Mon slate, and I recommend that all of you play the Sun-Mon slate instead of just the Sunday only slate for cash games.
Monday Night Football this week is the prime fantasy matchup especially at the quarterback position where Drew Brees on the 10th anniversary of the Saints first home game after Hurricane Katrina takes on an Atlanta Falcons team that so far has given up 290 yards passing per game to Derek Carr and Jameis Winston. I fully expect this game to be the highest scoring game of the weekend, and for cash game purposes.
While the Saints will be heavily owned on the Sun-Mon slate, there will likely still be people who overlook this game as they'll use their Sunday only lineup in the Sun-Mon slate contests. Drew Brees is a must-start this week for cash games, as he is the most predictable quarterback this week. All other quarterbacks have some sort of question heading into this week which makes it not enticing to play the Sunday only in cash games. One key injury situation to watch is whether we have any news on Willie Snead and his injured toe. If news appears that Snead is unable to go, Michael Thomas at $5,200 is a must play as he will become the top red zone threat and the number two receiver behind Brandin Cooks. Using Thomas in a Sun-Mon GPP even if we don't have clarity is a great strategy as he will be under-owned due to people being scared off of due to the unclear situation. Even if Snead plays I expect he will be limited.
Another player I like in this game is Jacob Tamme at $5,500. Tamme has had 8 targets in each of the first two games, and his price has not moved much at all. With Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu both banged up, I expect Tamme to possibly see double-digit targets as the Falcons are going to have to throw the ball to keep pace in this game.
When I release my cash game lineup tomorrow, it will be using the Sun-Mon slate, and I recommend that all of you play the Sun-Mon slate instead of just the Sunday only slate for cash games.
Friday, September 23, 2016
Week 3 Preview- Evaluating the Running Back Position
This week there are a ton of running backs who are starting due to injury, so let's break down some of the teams that changed running backs and the top cash/GPP plays this week.
Minnesota- Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon
Haven't we seen this show before multiple times and it always ends up about the same? McKinnon seems like the more talented running back and can move the ball between the 20's but then they will take him out inside the red zone for Matt Asiata. This really limits McKinnon's upside, and makes Asiata extremely volatile as you are banking on a touchdown.
Recommendation- Sit both this week, they're in a tough matchup on the road against Carolina, let's see if McKinnon takes on a bigger role than what we have seen in the past.
Detroit- Theo Riddick and Dwayne Washington
The injury to Ameer Abdullah hurts the Lions in a lot of ways as being able to move the ball and keep two running backs fresh. Now that he is out, most of the work will be going to Theo Riddick, which is great news for him as we have seen that he can be the number one guy. Dwayne Washington is an intriguing rookie, but until we see more from him you can't start him in DFS formats.
Recommendation- Play Riddick in a GPP only. Green Bay currently has the top rush defense, and while it is a small sample size they are only allowing 1.6 yards per carry and shut down Adrian Peterson prior to his injury. This is not a situation that you need to attack, but Riddick poses enough upside in GPP's with his pass catching ability.
San Diego- Melvin Gordon
The injury to Danny Woodhead may hurt the Chargers more than any on this list, as they have now lost two of their top receiving options with the injury to Keenan Allen the week prior. Do not let last year's bias get in the way when you are evaluating Melvin Gordon, he is a completely different running back from last season where he was unplayable in most fantasy formats. Now that Woodhead is out, Gordon is going to be forced to catch the ball out of the backfield which is only going to increase his workload this week.
Recommendation- Melvin Gordon is a great cash and GPP play this week. He will be highly owned, but faces a Colts defense that is one of the worst in the league as they are allowing 125 yards per game.
Cash Plays- I am spending up in cash games this week, as I think there is enough value at other positions that we can spend some of the money on top end running backs.
Deangelo Williams- I am not sure if I will be able to make Elliott and Williams fit in the same lineup, but if I am able to this becomes the lineup that I want to have. Williams usage rate in this offense has been the highest of any running back so far this year, and while statistically, the Eagles defense has been good against the run, do not look into this too much as they have faced the Browns and the Bears. Williams is getting 30+ touches in each week so far this season which makes him an ideal cash game play.
Ezekiel Elliott- The Chicago Bears defense is decimated with injuries and they are in the bottom third of the league in rushing yards allowed. They had five defensive players injured Monday night, and most of them do not look promising to play including Lamarr Houston, Danny Trevathan, Eddie Goldman, Adrian Amos, and Bryce Callahan. This is a great spot for Elliott to have a breakout game this week.
Melvin Gordon- As already mentioned, he is in a great spot against a Colts defense that is horrible against the run, the injury to Danny Woodhead only helps Gordon's value.
GPP
Ezekiel Elliott- Will be in my GPP core this week.
David Johnson
Spencer Ware
Mark Ingram
Theo Riddick
Demarco Murray
Minnesota- Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon
Haven't we seen this show before multiple times and it always ends up about the same? McKinnon seems like the more talented running back and can move the ball between the 20's but then they will take him out inside the red zone for Matt Asiata. This really limits McKinnon's upside, and makes Asiata extremely volatile as you are banking on a touchdown.
Recommendation- Sit both this week, they're in a tough matchup on the road against Carolina, let's see if McKinnon takes on a bigger role than what we have seen in the past.
Detroit- Theo Riddick and Dwayne Washington
The injury to Ameer Abdullah hurts the Lions in a lot of ways as being able to move the ball and keep two running backs fresh. Now that he is out, most of the work will be going to Theo Riddick, which is great news for him as we have seen that he can be the number one guy. Dwayne Washington is an intriguing rookie, but until we see more from him you can't start him in DFS formats.
Recommendation- Play Riddick in a GPP only. Green Bay currently has the top rush defense, and while it is a small sample size they are only allowing 1.6 yards per carry and shut down Adrian Peterson prior to his injury. This is not a situation that you need to attack, but Riddick poses enough upside in GPP's with his pass catching ability.
San Diego- Melvin Gordon
The injury to Danny Woodhead may hurt the Chargers more than any on this list, as they have now lost two of their top receiving options with the injury to Keenan Allen the week prior. Do not let last year's bias get in the way when you are evaluating Melvin Gordon, he is a completely different running back from last season where he was unplayable in most fantasy formats. Now that Woodhead is out, Gordon is going to be forced to catch the ball out of the backfield which is only going to increase his workload this week.
Recommendation- Melvin Gordon is a great cash and GPP play this week. He will be highly owned, but faces a Colts defense that is one of the worst in the league as they are allowing 125 yards per game.
Cash Plays- I am spending up in cash games this week, as I think there is enough value at other positions that we can spend some of the money on top end running backs.
Deangelo Williams- I am not sure if I will be able to make Elliott and Williams fit in the same lineup, but if I am able to this becomes the lineup that I want to have. Williams usage rate in this offense has been the highest of any running back so far this year, and while statistically, the Eagles defense has been good against the run, do not look into this too much as they have faced the Browns and the Bears. Williams is getting 30+ touches in each week so far this season which makes him an ideal cash game play.
Ezekiel Elliott- The Chicago Bears defense is decimated with injuries and they are in the bottom third of the league in rushing yards allowed. They had five defensive players injured Monday night, and most of them do not look promising to play including Lamarr Houston, Danny Trevathan, Eddie Goldman, Adrian Amos, and Bryce Callahan. This is a great spot for Elliott to have a breakout game this week.
Melvin Gordon- As already mentioned, he is in a great spot against a Colts defense that is horrible against the run, the injury to Danny Woodhead only helps Gordon's value.
GPP
Ezekiel Elliott- Will be in my GPP core this week.
David Johnson
Spencer Ware
Mark Ingram
Theo Riddick
Demarco Murray
Wednesday, September 21, 2016
Week 2 Recap- All About the Benjamins
Week 2 did not go as well as week 1, but thanks to a few guys with the last name Benjamin the bankroll is increasing again for week 2. A few of you guys have asked me to give you my cash game lineups prior to lock, and unfortunately, it isn't something that I am going to be doing to prevent my opponents from getting an advantage. What I am going to be doing is to be more transparent and write up more than just the quarterback position each week, this will help you guys create your lineups more efficiently.
Cash Games
Total Entered- $600
Total Return- $702 (65% of h2h games won)
GPP's
Total Entered- $100
Total Return $10
Total Bankroll Impact $-90
Starting Bankroll- $10,410
Week 2 Net profit/loss- $12
New Bankroll- $10,422
What went right-
Kelvin and Travis Benjamin in cash games-
This really saved me this week as both Benjamin's had monster games, and should see a big role on their team going forward. Kelvin Benjamin is showing that he is as good as his 2014 form and has fully recovered from his ACL injury that kept him out of the 2015 season. Travis Benjamin is benefitting from
C.J. Anderson
C.J. Anderson is looking like he will be a consistent fantasy back this season after an inconsistent 2015 season that had many people down on him. The running back had 20 carries again this week and was able to find the end zone. He is a dynamic running back and receiver, and should be considered in your analysis almost every week.
Luck was on my side
In a significant amount of my H2H contests, my opponents also had Antonio Brown and Eli Manning. This cancellation, really helped, as in those contests it didn't really matter what those two players did they were going to cancel with the opponents roster.
What went wrong-
Eli Manning
This game never really materialized into the high scoring shootout that we had all hoped for. This is the second week in a row, where the Giants offense just hasn't been able to consistently put together drives. Eli threw for 368 yards, which if you could have told me he would throw for 368 yards, I am thinking that he would have a huge game, but the touchdowns never came and thus he was left with just 12.32 points which is not enough for an $8,100 quarterback.
Antonio Brown
I will be the first to admit that I very rarely use weather as an indicator on whether to start a player, and I factor in wind/snow more than rain. Typically the wide receiver has an advantage over the defensive back in bad weather games as they know where they are going and on a sloppy field like Heinz Field, the defensive backs can slip as they try to make cuts. However, this just didn't work as it seemed Ben Roethlisberger couldn't get the ball out of his hand this week and they were content just running with Deangelo Williams.
Gary Barnidge
Paying up for Gary Barnidge in my core GPP lineup really hurt this week as I had Virgil Green in my cash game lineups and while neither were great, they were about the same so there was no reason to pay the extra salary for Barnidge. The Browns offense sputtered after a great start to the game where they put up 20 points in the first quarter. Once McCown injured his shoulder the Browns were never able to recover. It is largely disappointing for Barnidge, as he just isn't seeing the targets that he saw last year, and we will have to see how that changes with Cody Kessler, but with the increased amount of options at receiver in Cleveland this year it doesn't seem Barnidge is going to be fantasy relevant each week.
Cash Games
Total Entered- $600
Total Return- $702 (65% of h2h games won)
GPP's
Total Entered- $100
Total Return $10
Total Bankroll Impact $-90
Starting Bankroll- $10,410
Week 2 Net profit/loss- $12
New Bankroll- $10,422
Kelvin and Travis Benjamin in cash games-
This really saved me this week as both Benjamin's had monster games, and should see a big role on their team going forward. Kelvin Benjamin is showing that he is as good as his 2014 form and has fully recovered from his ACL injury that kept him out of the 2015 season. Travis Benjamin is benefitting from
C.J. Anderson
C.J. Anderson is looking like he will be a consistent fantasy back this season after an inconsistent 2015 season that had many people down on him. The running back had 20 carries again this week and was able to find the end zone. He is a dynamic running back and receiver, and should be considered in your analysis almost every week.
Luck was on my side
In a significant amount of my H2H contests, my opponents also had Antonio Brown and Eli Manning. This cancellation, really helped, as in those contests it didn't really matter what those two players did they were going to cancel with the opponents roster.
What went wrong-
Eli Manning
This game never really materialized into the high scoring shootout that we had all hoped for. This is the second week in a row, where the Giants offense just hasn't been able to consistently put together drives. Eli threw for 368 yards, which if you could have told me he would throw for 368 yards, I am thinking that he would have a huge game, but the touchdowns never came and thus he was left with just 12.32 points which is not enough for an $8,100 quarterback.
Antonio Brown
I will be the first to admit that I very rarely use weather as an indicator on whether to start a player, and I factor in wind/snow more than rain. Typically the wide receiver has an advantage over the defensive back in bad weather games as they know where they are going and on a sloppy field like Heinz Field, the defensive backs can slip as they try to make cuts. However, this just didn't work as it seemed Ben Roethlisberger couldn't get the ball out of his hand this week and they were content just running with Deangelo Williams.
Gary Barnidge
Paying up for Gary Barnidge in my core GPP lineup really hurt this week as I had Virgil Green in my cash game lineups and while neither were great, they were about the same so there was no reason to pay the extra salary for Barnidge. The Browns offense sputtered after a great start to the game where they put up 20 points in the first quarter. Once McCown injured his shoulder the Browns were never able to recover. It is largely disappointing for Barnidge, as he just isn't seeing the targets that he saw last year, and we will have to see how that changes with Cody Kessler, but with the increased amount of options at receiver in Cleveland this year it doesn't seem Barnidge is going to be fantasy relevant each week.
Monday, September 19, 2016
Heading into Monday Night
Cash-
I am currently winning 58% of my cash games with Jeremy Langford left to go. Thankfully, a lot of my opponents do not have a share of Monday night, so if Langford can have a big day that number should increase. This should help offset the rough day for the GPP's. Very fortunate to survive Eli Manning and Antonio Brown, in hind sight I should have been scared off by the weather, but I kept Brown in there thinking that it would just be a wet field giving Brown an advantage over the corner. Unfortunately the rain continued throughout the game, and it made the ball hard to even throw thus Roethlisberger unable to connect with his favorite target.
GPP
My GPP's are likely a bust this week, as Gary Barnidge and Antonio Brown killed most of my lineups. Seattle was also extremely disappointing, as they did not produce the turnovers or sacks that I had expected. They shut down the Rams offense allowing only 9 points, but when you spend up for the most expensive defense you have to hope they get you more than 7 total FanDuel points.
This is part of the risk of going with a "Core" strategy is that it does have risk, but it also has dividends as this is the strategy I have used to get to the 5 live finals that I have been fortunate to attend.
Big shoutout to Zane for using the core strategy and bringing in a 3-4x return this week. This is part of why I share as much as I do, is that I want you guys to do well
Big shoutout to Zane for using the core strategy and bringing in a 3-4x return this week. This is part of why I share as much as I do, is that I want you guys to do well
@ohiostate241 I can handle coming up a bit short on kicker. Followed your lead on GPP construction and looking at a 3-4x return on them— Zane Mitchell (@Zane_Patrick) September 18, 2016
Sunday, September 18, 2016
Saturday, September 17, 2016
Week 2 Preview Cash Game and GPP Strategy
I will be honest. I can't get a read on this week. There are players that I like, such as Eli Manning, Deangelo Williams, C.J. Anderson, Antonio Brown, A.J. Green, Gary Barnidge. The issue is I can't fit all of those players in my lineup.
In a typical week 2, I will have about 10% of my bankroll in play, however, this week I am just not that confident in my roster so I am likely going to end up with 7% in play. Below is my current contest entered and my cash game strategy for this week.
Total Bankroll- $10,410
Total contests entered- $700 (6.7%)
Cash Lineup $600
GPP- $100
Cash game strategy-
Start Eli Manning- Quarterback who will be in the highest projected game, and the highest owned guy. It is tempting to fall into the Trevor Siemian or Josh McCown trap, but in a cash game there is no reason to do this. I would rather pay down for a WR3 than trust one of these two players.
Running Back-
Pay up for one, go cheap for the other. The two running backs I am looking to pay up for this week are C.J. Anderson and Deangelo Williams.
Cheap running backs are Danny Woodhead, T.J. Yeldon, Rashad Jennings and Jeremy Langford. My favorite at the moment is Jeremy Langford, although this may change between now and lock. The Eagles allowed 5.6 yards per carry last week to the Browns who do not have a great running attack, so I expect a lot of Langford on Monday night.
Wide Receiver-
I will be starting Antonio Brown every single week until he proves me that I shouldn't start him.
Travis Benjamin is another guy that I really like this week, as he takes on the lead role at wide receiver in San Diego with the injury to Keenan Allen. At $6,100 he provides a nice salary relief to your lineup. Tyrell Williams is interesting and will likely be popular as people expect him to take on a role in this offense, I just can't trust him in cash games this week.
Tight End-
Cheap, likely going with Virgil Green or Jesse James.
Kicker-
I prefer Matt Bryant as my top option, but if you can't afford him spend down to Sebastian Janikowski.
Defense-
Find a way to pay up for Seattle.
GPP Strategy-
Fade Giants/Saints game- This game will be too highly owned this week as people will be expecting a shootout. While it very well could turn into a shootout, I
.
This week's core
Antonio Brown
Gary Barnidge
Matt Bryant
Seattle Defense
Antonio Brown
Gary Barnidge
Matt Bryant
Seattle Defense
Stacks that I will be building around this core are below.
Stacks
Carolina- Cam and Kelvin Benjamin
Arizona- Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald
Patriots- Jimmy Garoppolo and Chris Hogan
Jacksonville- Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson
Friday, September 16, 2016
GPP Strategy- Building a Core
I have been asked multiple times how I build my GPP and strategies to win in GPP's. Let me clarify one thing up front. Most weeks you are going to lose when you are playing GPP.
First of all the strategy that you implore has to be a strategy that you are comfortable with. There are plenty of successful people in the DFS community who only play GPP's and do not play any cash games. I am not one of those people, as I like to fund my GPP's through my cash game play. I play a majority cash games and sprinkle in some GPP's for that upside that the GPP's can provide.
Why play GPP's?
GPP's are great for the big score. They are not great for consistent bankroll building as the payouts are very top heavy. One GPP win, could pay for your entire season, and the problem with NFL compared to other sports is that there are only 17 weeks, so the odds are less that you will place highly in a GPP compared to MLB or NBA as there are more opportunities to do so. GPP's are also great if you are a small dollar player who is ok with losing their investment for the potential upside. If you are a player who wants to play $10 a week and is ok losing the $10, you can enter a cash game where the most that you can win is double your investment, or a GPP where you can win thousands of dollars on a $10 investment.
Risks of playing a GPP?
GPP's are highly variable in nature, as there are a lower percentage of the field is paid out. This can also lead to consistent losing weeks which can be tough on a persons bankroll. It is recommended that you only invest less than 5% of your total bankroll each week in GPP's, to minimize this variance.
How I build GPP lineups?
My GPP exposure is a boom/bust strategy compared to some people. My strategy is built off the premise that if I can use a core of guys and then fill in the gaps with other players that if that core does very well than as a whole I should do well in at least some of the lineups. When I first started playing GPP's, what I realized is that I was trying to have one of every player that I liked and my result would be that I would have one share of the top quarterback, one share of the top running back, one share of the top wide receiver, but they were never on the same team thus all of the lineups would be losing lineups.
With the building the core strategy, what does is it typically will take 3-5 players and put them on every single one of my GPP lineups that I am making for that week. Then I will fill in the rest of the lineups with a variety of players who I like, but do not want 100% exposure to. These maybe players with high variance, players such as Travis Benjamin this week who may have a huge week or may do very little.
How many lineups do I build? That really depends on a given week, some weeks it is 10, some it is 25 and there really isn't an exact number that I can tell you how to do it. If I feel strongly in my core, and like a bunch of other players to pair with my core, I will likely build closer to 25, if I don't love my core and don't have a great feeling about the other players I am putting in my lineups I may end up with 10. There isn't a set number that says you have to build this many lineups, build what you are comfortable with.
This week's core
Antonio Brown
Gary Barnidge
Matt Bryant
Seattle Defense
This week is special as typically I will never put a kicker or a defense in my core. However, I view both of these plays as my top plays of the day by a wide margin, as Oakland allowed the most field goals in 2015, and Atlanta had one of the worst red zone offenses in the NFL in 2015. This lines up perfectly for a big field goal performance from Bryant. Seattles defense is going up against Case Keenum's offense which couldn't do anything against San Francisco. This is a prime position where just start the stud defense and hope they pan out.
Do I have to put my cash game lineup in a GPP?
I am going to say no on this one. Can you put it in a GPP, sure there is nothing preventing you from doing that, but the cash game building strategy compared to the GPP is so vastly different that I don't feel that I typically have an advantage putting a cash game lineup in the GPP. For example, if you started Dak Prescott last week in cash games (which I did not advise), there is no reason you should have entered that into a GPP, as Dak doesn't have the upside that you are looking for to win or place highly in a GPP. Combining that with the fact that he was over-owned should tell you that that lineup is not a great upside lineup. Starting volume running backs is generally ok in cash games, but starting a player such as T.J. Yeldon is not typically advised in GPP as they aren't going to produce consistently enough to pay off.
First of all the strategy that you implore has to be a strategy that you are comfortable with. There are plenty of successful people in the DFS community who only play GPP's and do not play any cash games. I am not one of those people, as I like to fund my GPP's through my cash game play. I play a majority cash games and sprinkle in some GPP's for that upside that the GPP's can provide.
Why play GPP's?
GPP's are great for the big score. They are not great for consistent bankroll building as the payouts are very top heavy. One GPP win, could pay for your entire season, and the problem with NFL compared to other sports is that there are only 17 weeks, so the odds are less that you will place highly in a GPP compared to MLB or NBA as there are more opportunities to do so. GPP's are also great if you are a small dollar player who is ok with losing their investment for the potential upside. If you are a player who wants to play $10 a week and is ok losing the $10, you can enter a cash game where the most that you can win is double your investment, or a GPP where you can win thousands of dollars on a $10 investment.
Risks of playing a GPP?
GPP's are highly variable in nature, as there are a lower percentage of the field is paid out. This can also lead to consistent losing weeks which can be tough on a persons bankroll. It is recommended that you only invest less than 5% of your total bankroll each week in GPP's, to minimize this variance.
How I build GPP lineups?
My GPP exposure is a boom/bust strategy compared to some people. My strategy is built off the premise that if I can use a core of guys and then fill in the gaps with other players that if that core does very well than as a whole I should do well in at least some of the lineups. When I first started playing GPP's, what I realized is that I was trying to have one of every player that I liked and my result would be that I would have one share of the top quarterback, one share of the top running back, one share of the top wide receiver, but they were never on the same team thus all of the lineups would be losing lineups.
With the building the core strategy, what does is it typically will take 3-5 players and put them on every single one of my GPP lineups that I am making for that week. Then I will fill in the rest of the lineups with a variety of players who I like, but do not want 100% exposure to. These maybe players with high variance, players such as Travis Benjamin this week who may have a huge week or may do very little.
How many lineups do I build? That really depends on a given week, some weeks it is 10, some it is 25 and there really isn't an exact number that I can tell you how to do it. If I feel strongly in my core, and like a bunch of other players to pair with my core, I will likely build closer to 25, if I don't love my core and don't have a great feeling about the other players I am putting in my lineups I may end up with 10. There isn't a set number that says you have to build this many lineups, build what you are comfortable with.
This week's core
Antonio Brown
Gary Barnidge
Matt Bryant
Seattle Defense
This week is special as typically I will never put a kicker or a defense in my core. However, I view both of these plays as my top plays of the day by a wide margin, as Oakland allowed the most field goals in 2015, and Atlanta had one of the worst red zone offenses in the NFL in 2015. This lines up perfectly for a big field goal performance from Bryant. Seattles defense is going up against Case Keenum's offense which couldn't do anything against San Francisco. This is a prime position where just start the stud defense and hope they pan out.
Do I have to put my cash game lineup in a GPP?
I am going to say no on this one. Can you put it in a GPP, sure there is nothing preventing you from doing that, but the cash game building strategy compared to the GPP is so vastly different that I don't feel that I typically have an advantage putting a cash game lineup in the GPP. For example, if you started Dak Prescott last week in cash games (which I did not advise), there is no reason you should have entered that into a GPP, as Dak doesn't have the upside that you are looking for to win or place highly in a GPP. Combining that with the fact that he was over-owned should tell you that that lineup is not a great upside lineup. Starting volume running backs is generally ok in cash games, but starting a player such as T.J. Yeldon is not typically advised in GPP as they aren't going to produce consistently enough to pay off.
Evaluating Week 2 Quarterbacks
This week has been more complicated than most, and I wanted to get a clear direction on which way I was leaning before posting a blog. Now that I have a clear direction of where I want to go, let's get into this thing.
Quarterbacks that I am targeting.
Cash
Eli Manning- $8,100
Don't overthink this one this week. In cash games, you want to select the quarterbacks who have the highest floor per dollar. Eli Manning going up against the worst defense in the NFL this week makes this a no brainer. New Orleans lost Delvin Breaux who is their top corner due to a broken fibula last week making a bad defense even worse. Derek Carr last week threw for 320 yards on the road. This game has the highest projected score on the board in Las Vegas. Eli will be one of the more popular plays of the week, but there will also be plenty of people spending down to players such as Trevor Siemian and Jimmy Garoppolo which is not recommended due to their floors being much lower than Eli. The Giants are going to be forced to throw the ball and assuming the weather holds up, Eli is the top play for me in cash games this week.
GPP-
The primary reason I am looking at cheap quarterbacks this week in GPP's is due to wanting to spend up at other positions. Typically in my process, I will start with which quarterbacks I am willing to start based on tiers (expensive, mid-tier, low-tier) and then determine in what types of contests I am wanting to spend up at other positions. This week, I want Antonio Brown and A.J. Green in GPP's, and the only way to be able to do that is to spend down at quarterback.
Josh McCown in 2015 faced this Baltimore Ravens team twice, and threw for an average of 44.5 times in both of these games. He ended up with an average of 23.5 FanDuel points per game in these two contests. The Browns offense should be better this week, as they have gone out and drafted Corey Coleman, Terrelle Pryor is developing as a deep threat, and Duke Johnson is in his second season all which help McCown and give him more weapons than what he had last season.
Trevor Siemian is going to also be popular this week, but my concern around him is that Denver doesn't really need to throw the ball and can use him more as a game manager. The injury to Demaryius Thomas is also a concern, which leads me to believe that C.J. Anderson is the guy that you want in that matchup.
Carson Palmer- $8,200
A lot of people continue to be scared off of Carson Palmer after his horrible preseason and his underwhelming game against the Patriots. This is a perfect opportunity for a player who is going to be under-owned in a great matchup at home against a Jacksonville team who was 29th in passing yards allowed last season. Palmer makes for a great stack with Larry Fitzgerald this week, as Fitzgerald was one of the bright spots last week scoring two touchdowns and targeted 10 times last week. Palmer will be under-owned due to people gravitating to Eli Manning at a similar price, spending down, or spending up to Cam Newton. He is going to be one of my top GPP plays with the hope that him and the offense get back to where they were last season.
Wednesday, September 14, 2016
Week One Recap
Great start to week one. Net profit of $410 when it was all said and done. The case could be made for me to have gone bigger in my week one bankroll, but the goal here is to grow it over 17 weeks.
Cash games-
Total Entered- $510
Total Return- $855
GPP-
Total Entered- $90
Total Return- $165
Overall-
Total Entered- $600
Total Return-$1,010
Total Profit- $410
New Bankroll- $10,410
What went right-
Dak Prescott-
Dak did not live up to expectations which is what I expected. I owned 0% of Dak in any of the lineups that I had, as he was over-owned and his ceiling wasn't as high as people thought. I went with either Brees or Stafford in every lineup this week and it paid off.
Antonio Brown-
Cash games are fairly simple, start Antonio Brown every week until he proves otherwise. With Martavis Bryant suspended and Markus Wheaton injured, Antonio Brown is the guy every week. Even when Wheaton returns, Brown provides so much consistency compared to his fellow elite wide receivers such as
Deangelo Williams-
The Steelers ran their offense through two players in this game, Antonio Brown and Deangelo Williams. This is a situation where starting both the wide receiver and running back in cash games really paid off. I do this quite a bit stacking the running back with either the quarterback or wide receiver, and will be writing a separate post about this. The reason I do this is that if I believe that a game will be high scoring I want to make sure that I get the touchdowns. It is a limited GPP strategy unless the quarterback throws to the running back, but in a cash game setting if you can get a share of 3-4 touchdowns this will pay off in the long run.
What went wrong-
Martellus Bennett-
The swap late in the week from Eric Ebron and Vance McDonald to Martellus Bennett really hurt. Bennett stayed in as a blocker for most of the game as they used his big frame to gain an edge on their upset victory over the Cardinals. Meanwhile, both Ebron and Vance McDonald scored a touchdown.
Charcandrick West-
Being scared off by the Charcandrick West news and not starting Spencer Ware- This one I don't feel so bad about as I was right that it would be a split carry situation, Ware and West both had exactly 34 snaps. I swapped him out in a majority of lineups to Christine Michael as I felt Michael had a better chance to take a majority of the carries.
Have a topic you want me to cover this week? Post it in the comments or reach out to me via Twitter
Cash games-
Total Entered- $510
Total Return- $855
GPP-
Total Entered- $90
Total Return- $165
Overall-
Total Entered- $600
Total Return-$1,010
Total Profit- $410
New Bankroll- $10,410
What went right-
Dak Prescott-
Dak did not live up to expectations which is what I expected. I owned 0% of Dak in any of the lineups that I had, as he was over-owned and his ceiling wasn't as high as people thought. I went with either Brees or Stafford in every lineup this week and it paid off.
Antonio Brown-
Cash games are fairly simple, start Antonio Brown every week until he proves otherwise. With Martavis Bryant suspended and Markus Wheaton injured, Antonio Brown is the guy every week. Even when Wheaton returns, Brown provides so much consistency compared to his fellow elite wide receivers such as
Deangelo Williams-
The Steelers ran their offense through two players in this game, Antonio Brown and Deangelo Williams. This is a situation where starting both the wide receiver and running back in cash games really paid off. I do this quite a bit stacking the running back with either the quarterback or wide receiver, and will be writing a separate post about this. The reason I do this is that if I believe that a game will be high scoring I want to make sure that I get the touchdowns. It is a limited GPP strategy unless the quarterback throws to the running back, but in a cash game setting if you can get a share of 3-4 touchdowns this will pay off in the long run.
What went wrong-
Martellus Bennett-
The swap late in the week from Eric Ebron and Vance McDonald to Martellus Bennett really hurt. Bennett stayed in as a blocker for most of the game as they used his big frame to gain an edge on their upset victory over the Cardinals. Meanwhile, both Ebron and Vance McDonald scored a touchdown.
Charcandrick West-
Being scared off by the Charcandrick West news and not starting Spencer Ware- This one I don't feel so bad about as I was right that it would be a split carry situation, Ware and West both had exactly 34 snaps. I swapped him out in a majority of lineups to Christine Michael as I felt Michael had a better chance to take a majority of the carries.
Monday, September 12, 2016
Heading into Monday Night
Let's do this thing. Unfortunately, my image didn't show up yesterday for those that were viewing via mobile. Here is where I currently stand. Martellus Bennett was extremely disheartening, as I had Eric Ebron in my lineup until the news of Gronkowski being out. I also made a big mistake with not starting Spencer Ware as I was scared off by the Charcandrick West news, and while West actually split carries with Ware, Ware had most of the production.
Sunday, September 11, 2016
Final Thoughts for Week One
I will be posting my cash game lineup for full transparency once the contests lock. I am not able to do this earlier due to FanDuel's rule about sharing lineups.
Here are my final thoughts for week 1.
1) Be careful with your bankroll this week. The pricing has become incredibly soft due to the following players emerging as great value plays. Dak Prescott, Spencer Ware, Christine Michael, Deangelo Williams, Marvin Jones, Eric Ebron, Martellus Bennett, and Jesse James. This will lead to a lot of overlap in contests, as teams will then have Antonio Brown and Julio Jones based on the savings they were able to obtain by starting the value plays. In cash games this can lead to your contests being decided by kickers and defenses which can be much more volatile than other positions.
2) In GPP's avoid a few of the value plays to differentiate your team. These value plays are going to be very highly owned this week, and may not possess the highest upside. For example, Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West could split carries more than we expect them to. Thomas Rawls and C.J. Prosise could take away from Christine Michael's production. Dak Prescott may show that he is a rookie against non-vanilla defenses. The entire Patriots offense may get shut down thus impacting Martellus Bennett's production. Some of these players will be 25%+ owned this week, and therefore you likely want to avoid them as if they fail you have a leg up on a large portion of the field.
3) A few of you have asked, and I'll be making a separate column for next week on this, but I am not a 50/50 guy for cash games. The primary reason is that competition level is higher in the 50/50 than it is in head to head games and head to head are better for your bankroll. If you lose one 50/50 odds are you are going to lose them all, as the cut line tends to be around the same number. For head to heads you face a much wider variance as you will face opponents who would finish first in a 50/50, but you will also face players who finish in the bottom half of the 50/50. Therefore from a bankroll management standpoint, if you join a variety of head to heads it is likely you will get more back if you have a bad lineup compared to losing all of your contests in 50/50's with a bad lineup.
Good luck everybody, I'll check back later.
Here are my final thoughts for week 1.
1) Be careful with your bankroll this week. The pricing has become incredibly soft due to the following players emerging as great value plays. Dak Prescott, Spencer Ware, Christine Michael, Deangelo Williams, Marvin Jones, Eric Ebron, Martellus Bennett, and Jesse James. This will lead to a lot of overlap in contests, as teams will then have Antonio Brown and Julio Jones based on the savings they were able to obtain by starting the value plays. In cash games this can lead to your contests being decided by kickers and defenses which can be much more volatile than other positions.
2) In GPP's avoid a few of the value plays to differentiate your team. These value plays are going to be very highly owned this week, and may not possess the highest upside. For example, Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West could split carries more than we expect them to. Thomas Rawls and C.J. Prosise could take away from Christine Michael's production. Dak Prescott may show that he is a rookie against non-vanilla defenses. The entire Patriots offense may get shut down thus impacting Martellus Bennett's production. Some of these players will be 25%+ owned this week, and therefore you likely want to avoid them as if they fail you have a leg up on a large portion of the field.
3) A few of you have asked, and I'll be making a separate column for next week on this, but I am not a 50/50 guy for cash games. The primary reason is that competition level is higher in the 50/50 than it is in head to head games and head to head are better for your bankroll. If you lose one 50/50 odds are you are going to lose them all, as the cut line tends to be around the same number. For head to heads you face a much wider variance as you will face opponents who would finish first in a 50/50, but you will also face players who finish in the bottom half of the 50/50. Therefore from a bankroll management standpoint, if you join a variety of head to heads it is likely you will get more back if you have a bad lineup compared to losing all of your contests in 50/50's with a bad lineup.
Good luck everybody, I'll check back later.
Saturday, September 10, 2016
Re-Evaluating the Tight End
The impact of Rob Gronkowski not playing this week has a major impact to how we are evaluating tight ends this week. Previously, I was considering Eric Ebron and Vance McDonald as my two low end tight ends, but Martellus Bennett has more upside than both of these players.
Jimmy Garoppolo making his first start on the road is going to be under pressure most of the day. Matt Bitonti, who is Footballguys offensive and defensive line guru has New England's offensive line ranked 31st to start the year. Link This means that Garoppolo will be under duress for most of the game, and they will have to incorporate the short to medium passing game which is where Bennett will see most of his targets. With
At just $5,100 he immediately jumps up to my top cash and GPP play, although I will still likely have some shares of Eric Ebron and Vance McDonald in GPP only due to Bennett's ownership which should be the highest tight end on the board. In a GPP, you are looking for tight ends who can score touchdowns, and while Bennett likely will be the primary target when the Patriots get to the red zone. We saw Patriots tight ends score 15 touchdowns including our from Scott Chandler.
Tight End Rankings:
Cash-
1) Martellus Bennett- $5,100
2) Jordan Reed- $7,400
3) Vance McDonald- $4,700
GPP-
1) Martellus Bennett- $5,100
2) Vance McDonald- $4,700
3) Eric Ebron- $5,100
4) Gary Barnidge- $6,300
5) Coby Fleener- $5,400
6) Jordan Reed- $7,400
Friday, September 9, 2016
Examining the Week One Bankroll
Season Long Bankroll- $10,000
Amount in Play Week 1- $600
% Cash games- 80%
% GPP- 20%
The reason we chose $10,000 is that it is a nice round number, you can easily divide this into whatever your own bankroll is if you want to follow my strategy.
Week one overview-
Week one is always a tricky one which is why I am playing much less of my bankroll than I typically would. We have all of these coaches who have been feeding the media as far as which player looks great who should see the highest volume, who should see increased roles and a lot of that just isn't true. I don't believe this would happen, but would anyone be surprised if Charcandrick West plays a role and cuts into Spencer Ware's production this week, yet no one is considering it because all the talk has been about Ware.
We were all burned by this last year, as below are the highest owned players at each position. Four of the seven highest owned players at positions did not reach 2x in value which is what you are looking for in cash games. Davante Adams never really established himself in a role that he was talked up to be, Eddie Lacy had a disappointing year after high expectations coming into the year, and Lamar Miller only had 13 carries in week one when there was expectation he was going to have a big year.
Cash game breakdown-
This week I am entering less cash games than I typically would, typically I am a 90/10 player. The primary reason for that is that there are so many cheap plays on FanDuel that it is really caused the pricing to be extremely soft. Players such as Dak Prescott, Spencer Ware, Christine Michael, Marvin Jones will be extremely popular due to their low salary, so really you are then playing head to heads and 50/50's in games that have a high amount of overlap. A lineup that will be extremely popular will include Dak, Ware, Christine Michael, and the top three wide receivers. If you are facing someone in a head to head or 50/50 who has this then you are then competing to see which kicker, defense, or tight end scores the most. Three on three DFS increases variance as it can be decided by which tight end scores a touchdown. This is why I am entering less total dollars and a higher GPP % than I typically would.
If you are a guy who likes to have multiple cash game lineups then by all means go your normal amount as you can spread your risk out on some of the highest owned players. I typically don't do this, as I like to have what I feel is my optimal lineup in all of my cash game lineups. Therefore I will be going with less at stake this week.
GPP game selection breakdown-
I am not that confident in the GPP's this week, so I will be entering a lot of different lineups at low dollar GPP's. The issue is that there are a lot of great stacks this week. Most weeks I like to have my GPP's centered around one core of players and then fill in the rest with a variety of the rest of the teams. The reason for this is that if that core has a great game, I hope that I have the right combination of other players to win the GPP. It is a high risk strategy, as if the core fails than all of my GPP's typically fail, but GPP play is about high risk and hoping you hit a big tournament.
Stacks I will be using this week-
Detroit- Stafford/Ebron, Stafford/Jones
Philadelphia- Defense/Ryan Mathews
Washington- Kirk Cousins/Jordan Reed
New Orleans- Brees/Fleener
Jacksonville- Bortles/Robinson
Atlanta- Matt Ryan/Julio Jones
Amount in Play Week 1- $600
% Cash games- 80%
% GPP- 20%
The reason we chose $10,000 is that it is a nice round number, you can easily divide this into whatever your own bankroll is if you want to follow my strategy.
Week one overview-
Week one is always a tricky one which is why I am playing much less of my bankroll than I typically would. We have all of these coaches who have been feeding the media as far as which player looks great who should see the highest volume, who should see increased roles and a lot of that just isn't true. I don't believe this would happen, but would anyone be surprised if Charcandrick West plays a role and cuts into Spencer Ware's production this week, yet no one is considering it because all the talk has been about Ware.
We were all burned by this last year, as below are the highest owned players at each position. Four of the seven highest owned players at positions did not reach 2x in value which is what you are looking for in cash games. Davante Adams never really established himself in a role that he was talked up to be, Eddie Lacy had a disappointing year after high expectations coming into the year, and Lamar Miller only had 13 carries in week one when there was expectation he was going to have a big year.
Cash game breakdown-
This week I am entering less cash games than I typically would, typically I am a 90/10 player. The primary reason for that is that there are so many cheap plays on FanDuel that it is really caused the pricing to be extremely soft. Players such as Dak Prescott, Spencer Ware, Christine Michael, Marvin Jones will be extremely popular due to their low salary, so really you are then playing head to heads and 50/50's in games that have a high amount of overlap. A lineup that will be extremely popular will include Dak, Ware, Christine Michael, and the top three wide receivers. If you are facing someone in a head to head or 50/50 who has this then you are then competing to see which kicker, defense, or tight end scores the most. Three on three DFS increases variance as it can be decided by which tight end scores a touchdown. This is why I am entering less total dollars and a higher GPP % than I typically would.
If you are a guy who likes to have multiple cash game lineups then by all means go your normal amount as you can spread your risk out on some of the highest owned players. I typically don't do this, as I like to have what I feel is my optimal lineup in all of my cash game lineups. Therefore I will be going with less at stake this week.
GPP game selection breakdown-
I am not that confident in the GPP's this week, so I will be entering a lot of different lineups at low dollar GPP's. The issue is that there are a lot of great stacks this week. Most weeks I like to have my GPP's centered around one core of players and then fill in the rest with a variety of the rest of the teams. The reason for this is that if that core has a great game, I hope that I have the right combination of other players to win the GPP. It is a high risk strategy, as if the core fails than all of my GPP's typically fail, but GPP play is about high risk and hoping you hit a big tournament.
Stacks I will be using this week-
Detroit- Stafford/Ebron, Stafford/Jones
Philadelphia- Defense/Ryan Mathews
Washington- Kirk Cousins/Jordan Reed
New Orleans- Brees/Fleener
Jacksonville- Bortles/Robinson
Atlanta- Matt Ryan/Julio Jones
Quarterback Evaluation this Week
Dak Prescott- $5,000
On FanDuel this week, Dak Prescott will be the highest owned quarterback. Historically, I have fallen into the trap of blindly playing the cheapest new quarterback because they had a great college career, or a great preseason. I even played Zach Mettenberger in the 2014 Fantasy Aces Football Championship. I have played Johnny Manziel, Tim Tebow, Case Keenum, the list goes on and on, but I will not be playing Dak Prescott this week. It is a risky strategy, as if he has a great game I will lose every contest week one, but let's look at the facts here.
- 8th quarterback selected in the 2016 NFL Draft.
- Dallas was last in tempo last year at 29.95 seconds per play, this is a big dropoff once Romo went out. Expect Dallas to continue this slow pace as they drafted Ezekiel Elliott and brought in Alfred Morris.
- The last four quarterbacks that have started their first game have not been statistically impressive. These were all the top two quarterbacks taken in the draft (Bortles, Winston, Mariota, Manuel). They all failed to go over 225 yards and only one threw the ball more than 30 times (Winston). These quarterbacks were more NFL ready than Dak.
What should we honestly expect from Dak? I am expecting 16/24 for 195 yards, one touchdown, and a turnover. These are not awful numbers considering the salary, but with all the value that is out there this week on FanDuel you do not need to take the risk with Dak this week.
Quarterbacks I will be targeting
Cash Games
If you haven't heard by now, Indianapolis defense is decimated with injuries. Footballguys Injury Expert and IDP guru Dr. Jene Bramel had this to say about the Colts defense in week one.
The Lions are going to have to keep pace with the Colts in what is expected to be one of the higher scoring games of the week. This is a great opportunity for a high volume quarterback like Stafford to come in and have a big opening game as while the game is on the road, it is still indoors leading to what should be a productive passing attack.No Davis, Anderson, Moore, Geathers. Langford, Butler less than full strength. Colts defense a total mess in W1. https://t.co/8QILUSipqD— Jene Bramel (@JeneBramel) September 8, 2016
Drew Brees-$8,700
Brees is an every week staple in my cash games when he is at home. He is just so consistent when playing in New Orleans, and is facing a weak secondary this week in the Oakland Raiders who allowed the seventh most passing yards in 2015. He is expensive as he should be, but if you aren't starting Dak Prescott this week you are looking for consistency, and that is exactly what Brees brings to the table.
GPP
Kirk Cousins- $7,800
For GPP's no one is talking about Kirk Cousins this week, and I'm not really sure why. The Redskins have absolutely no one to run the ball, as both Matt Jones and Chris Thompson are questionable this week. While both should play, the question is how effective they will be, and will the Redskins just abandon the run altogether. This seems likely as they are facing a secondary that was third worst in the NFL and while the Steelers used a first-round pick on a corner, it is unlikely that it will significantly change the defense that quickly. This game is expected to be a high-scoring matchup, and for Washington to stay close as Vegas thinks they will, Cousins will have to play a major role in this. He is a great GPP stack with Jordan Reed this week.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)