Head to Head Selection Strategy

I have received a number of questions about how I select opponents in my head to head games. Here is a quick strategy guide. If there are any questions let me know or follow me on Twitter

How do I select games?
In other sports, I keep track of my win/loss record against every opponent that I face so I can try to tell which players are the one's that I want to target or avoid. For football, I really don't do this, as the number of opponents is so much larger that it makes it difficult. Also, there is so much more information available in cash games for football so most people can become skilled very quickly utilizing very inexpensive subscription services such as Footballguys.com and others. What I do for football is I like to just take on a number of games at a certain price point that allows me to do so. For the purposes of this blog, I am playing $5 and $10 h2h games and playing up to the budget that I post each week which typically is around 100-150 head to head games. This is obviously extreme and not what most people have time to enter that many head to head contests.

If you are playing less than 20-30 contests per week, I would likely just play 50/50's as at that point you deal with too much weekly variance and don't get a true statistical view of the full range of outcomes. Essentially you can get unlucky have a great lineup and then face better lineups.

Why don't I post games?
The short answer is just time. If I were to post all of my contests at once, I don't want more exposure against any one single player than I need to have. With FanDuel not having a matchup blocker, this poses a risk for me that I could end up with more exposure against one opponent than I want to have. Also, as someone who posts a lot of what I am thinking on a week to week basis on this blog, I have very little incentive to make my contests available for people to use my picks to block me of my top plays. 

Don't be afraid of experts
If someone is posting their strategy for the week and you disagree with some of their top plays on that day, then join their head to head. This is going to be unpopular amongst some of my peers, but not all of the experts are profitable players. If you are reading this, you are likely familiar with some of the top players in DFS, and potentially even read some of their work. If you were against Drew Brees or Ezekiel Elliott last week and I posted games, then take my games. To be honest, I don't have a ton of time to read other experts writing as I have my own writing to work on, but I find that reading others helpful in that I know their mindset and their thinking.