Amount in Play Week 1- $600
% Cash games- 80%
% GPP- 20%
The reason we chose $10,000 is that it is a nice round number, you can easily divide this into whatever your own bankroll is if you want to follow my strategy.
Week one overview-
Week one is always a tricky one which is why I am playing much less of my bankroll than I typically would. We have all of these coaches who have been feeding the media as far as which player looks great who should see the highest volume, who should see increased roles and a lot of that just isn't true. I don't believe this would happen, but would anyone be surprised if Charcandrick West plays a role and cuts into Spencer Ware's production this week, yet no one is considering it because all the talk has been about Ware.
We were all burned by this last year, as below are the highest owned players at each position. Four of the seven highest owned players at positions did not reach 2x in value which is what you are looking for in cash games. Davante Adams never really established himself in a role that he was talked up to be, Eddie Lacy had a disappointing year after high expectations coming into the year, and Lamar Miller only had 13 carries in week one when there was expectation he was going to have a big year.
Cash game breakdown-
This week I am entering less cash games than I typically would, typically I am a 90/10 player. The primary reason for that is that there are so many cheap plays on FanDuel that it is really caused the pricing to be extremely soft. Players such as Dak Prescott, Spencer Ware, Christine Michael, Marvin Jones will be extremely popular due to their low salary, so really you are then playing head to heads and 50/50's in games that have a high amount of overlap. A lineup that will be extremely popular will include Dak, Ware, Christine Michael, and the top three wide receivers. If you are facing someone in a head to head or 50/50 who has this then you are then competing to see which kicker, defense, or tight end scores the most. Three on three DFS increases variance as it can be decided by which tight end scores a touchdown. This is why I am entering less total dollars and a higher GPP % than I typically would.
If you are a guy who likes to have multiple cash game lineups then by all means go your normal amount as you can spread your risk out on some of the highest owned players. I typically don't do this, as I like to have what I feel is my optimal lineup in all of my cash game lineups. Therefore I will be going with less at stake this week.
GPP game selection breakdown-
I am not that confident in the GPP's this week, so I will be entering a lot of different lineups at low dollar GPP's. The issue is that there are a lot of great stacks this week. Most weeks I like to have my GPP's centered around one core of players and then fill in the rest with a variety of the rest of the teams. The reason for this is that if that core has a great game, I hope that I have the right combination of other players to win the GPP. It is a high risk strategy, as if the core fails than all of my GPP's typically fail, but GPP play is about high risk and hoping you hit a big tournament.
Stacks I will be using this week-
Detroit- Stafford/Ebron, Stafford/Jones
Philadelphia- Defense/Ryan Mathews
Washington- Kirk Cousins/Jordan Reed
New Orleans- Brees/Fleener
Jacksonville- Bortles/Robinson
Atlanta- Matt Ryan/Julio Jones
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