Sunday, January 20, 2019

End of the Season

As Looney Tunes said. That's all folks. Solid weekend, ending up on the playoffs as I did well in the Wildcard, not so well last week and won most of my cash and min-cashed in GPP's with my lineup.

Overall a solid season, I'll run the numbers this week on where the bankroll finally ended, but should be close to even. Taking out some of those big $535 h2h early in the year, it would have been a highly positive year, and if we're counting non-FanDuel I was up mostly due to the Yahoo GPP score earlier this year.

Anyway, I hope you learned something, and we'll have to see if this blog makes it back for year 3 next season.

Image result for that's all folks

Obscure GPP Lineup

Warning: This lineup should not be used heavily. My favorite GPP lineup on a two-game slate is my cash lineup.

However, with that said, I had some fun building an anti-chalk lineup. If the chalk all fails, this lineup could rise up.


Cash and GPP Lineup

I'll give a second more obscure GPP lineup, but this is where I've landed as my primary lineup for both cash and GPPs.

I've shifted into playing Kamara so that I can make this lineup work. I like Kamara slightly less than Gurley, but do think he will have success today running off tackle as the strength of the Rams is at their defensive tackle positions.



Saturday, January 19, 2019

Conference Championship Week

The first thing I'll say to start this off is thank you if you're still following along, it's been an up and down year for me this year, but definitely the year that I know I have learned a lot about my own gameplay and hopefully, you have learned a little bit as well.

With that said, much like the previous two rounds of the playoffs and really Week 17. Don't be stupid with your bankroll. There is no reason to push the envelope hard this week as we're dealing with a two-game slate where one mistake is critical.

Pricing is much tighter on FanDuel than DraftKings this week as with DraftKings you can almost get whichever running backs you want in your lineup.

QB-
At the quarterback position, there really is only a decision between Brees or Mahomes. For me, there is not enough of a savings to go away from Mahomes this week as I view him as having a significantly higher floor than any other quarterback and a higher ceiling.

Running Back
Running back is likely the hardest decision on FanDuel. On DraftKings, go and get whoever you want. James White is an excellent play on DraftKings, but due to not being a full point PPR, not going to play him on FanDuel this week.

With the cold weather and with Tom Brady's history on the road in the playoffs not being great, I think this is a heavy game of Sony Michel who has really seen consistent volume each week since coming back from injury.

My top options by value in order (FanDuel)-
Todd Gurley
Damien Williams
Alvin Kamara
Sony Michel
C.J. Anderson
Mark Ingram
James White

Wide Receiver

At the wide receiver position, this really depends on what you do at tight end. If you spend up for Kelce there isn't room to go to most of the top end guys. For me, the answer is that I'm spending up to go and get Michael Thomas and tight end will be a complete punt of the position. Thomas makes up such a high percentage of targets in the Saints offense that it is difficult not to trust that he will have a great game this week. The matchup outside of Aqib Talib is a good one as Marcus Peters has not been great this season.

My top options by value in order (FanDuel)
Michael Thomas
Julian Edelman
Robert Woods
Josh Reynolds
Ted Ginn Jr.
Tyreek Hill
Brandin Cooks
Sammy Watkins

Tight End-

I already hinted it, but on FanDuel, I have not built many lineup builds that have Travis Kelce in my lineup. This could be a giant mistake, but there is not a good way to have Michael Thomas, Todd Gurley and Travis Kelce in the same lineup with how tight FanDuel's pricing is. On DraftKings, there are definitely ways to do it, and he is the clear cut guy this week so you may want to consider doing it over there.

The reality is, that at the moment, I have Josh Hill in a majority of my lineups. With no Benjamin Watson this week, Hill should see close to 100% of the snaps and we have seen him have big playoff games before as he has 50 yards in two of his last three games. I don't love it, and would love to find a way to get Kelce, but it is bleak.





Sunday, January 13, 2019

Short slates are tough

While last weekend worked, this weekend is not looking great. Facing a lot of Kelce, Foles which was probably the smart way to build the lineup.

Saturday, January 12, 2019

When your quarterback has 0 completions at the end of the first quarter


GPP Lineup

While I like the cash game lineup for GPP's more than this one, here's another one that I'm liking this week.


Cash Lineup

Weather scares me, but looking more and more into this, outside of Brees, there really is not another quarterback I would consider. Luck and Mahomes still have the most upside of anyone on the slate, and I love the build I can get around him.

Ebron is a bit of a let down, and I thought about going with a Kelce/Woods lineup over Ebron and Gurley, but the reality is if we've learned anything this season it's to get the stud running backs into your lineup and figure the rest of it out. Kelce could have a monster game, as could Ertz, but playing Gurley this week as he should have the best chance to find the end zone.



Friday, January 11, 2019

Thoughts on Divisional Games

Quarterback-
At the quarterback position, weather is the big question and really for most of this slate. The highest over/under remains the Chiefs/Colts, but the problem is that there is upwards of a foot of snow prior to game time. Keep an eye on how Vegas is reacting to the news and if the over/under drops more than 3 points off of the 57 that it is at now, then you know there is a real concern.

At the moment, however, I'm still playing Patrick Mahomes. The guy is just too consistent with too high of a floor not to play him. Andrew Luck is also in play in this game, but with Marlon Mack's surge, I'm targeting Mahomes.

Running Back- 

Damien Williams seems to be the chalk play this week if Spencer Ware misses. If Ware is active, Williams is probably still a solid play, but some people will be a little worrisome. The reality is that there aren't that many players who are great at a value. Williams on FanDuel is simply too cheap.

On the top-end, the question is Todd Gurley or Ezekiel Elliott. For me, I think the answer is Elliott, he makes up a significant portion of this offense, and Gurley is facing a better run defense as he is going up against a solid Cowboys run defense. Neither are poor plays, but

Other Options-
Alvin Kamara
James White- DraftKings only
Darren Sproles- DraftKings
Mark Ingram- Prefer on FanDuel

Wide Receiver- 

The problem with the wide receiver position this week is that there are not values at other positions on FanDuel this week that I want to target. This ultimately means that in cash, I'm likely not going with any of the top-end wide receivers this week. The first guy that I'm putting into my lineup on FanDuel is Ted Ginn Jr. at just $4,500 which is minimum priced.

After Ginn, it's likely going to be Amari Cooper, as for the amount of volume that he is going to get, he is too cheap at just $6,800.

The problem is at the third spot. Josh Reynolds is cheap and has seen consistent volume, but a lot of it depends on what we're going to do with the flex position and tight end position. If you want to spend up, T.Y. Hilton looks like he is in a great spot, as he's going up against a Chiefs secondary that has been horrendous this season.

Other Options to consider

In a GPP, one of Tyrell/Mike Williams could win a GPP this week.

Dontrell Inman remains cheap in a high volume Colts offense

Phillip Dorsett is a nice option with no Josh Gordon on the Patriots

If the Eagles are going to have success passing the ball, it will likely be out of the slots with either Golden Tate or Zach Ertz. Tate is a nice value this week.

Tight End-
On DraftKings, the decision is made for you as you have to play Ertz in all contests at just $5,700 which is far too cheap for this slate. You could go two tight ends with both Kelce and Ertz as you're still getting a discount with Kelce being just $7,000.

On FanDuel, Ertz is $7,400 and Kelce is $7,500. The answer there really depends on the weather and the health of Sammy Watkins. If one of those two things is positive, I prefer Kelce, but if both the weather is a concern and Watkins is out, I vastly prefer Ertz at that point.

Other Options to Consider-
Eric Ebron
Hunter Henry
Rob Gronkowski

Saturday, January 5, 2019