Sunday, December 30, 2018

Updated Favorite GPP Lineup


Updated Cash lineup

So many news breaking as of late. Here's where I currently stand.


Favorite GPP Lineup

My cash lineup is my favorite GPP lineup this week, so here's my second favorite.


Week 17 Current Lineup

At the moment, my lineup is below. Will update it accordingly if there is any Davante Adams or Saints news that is concerning.







Week 17 Thoughts

Week 17 is a weird week

Quarterback-
At the quarterback position, I'm just paying up for Patrick Mahomes and not even thinking about anyone else. The Chiefs still have full reason to play this game and we typically see teams rest that do not have a bye week. I think that Mahomes should close to if not the entire game on the field and the only reason he would not be out there is if the Chiefs got a big lead which would be his doing.

Other players in consideration (In order of favorite):
Aaron Rodgers
Lamar Jackson
Ben Roethlisberger
Tom Brady

Running Back
This is where we get the value this week, as the reality is that there are not many spots where running backs will see the full amount of touches.

Royce Freeman-
With Phillip Lindsay out this week, Freeman gets the benefit of having played on Monday Night and the sites not raising his price making him almost a must-start this week. The matchup isn't great, but he should see 15+ touches at least.

Saquon Barkley-
The Giants have nothing to play for, but it also appears that they are not going to be resting anyone this week either, so Barkley should be one of the few top-end running backs who will see his full allotment of carries going up against a Dallas defense that looks like they're going to be resting everyone as the Giants are 6 point favorites.

Other Considerations-
Chris Carson
Jamaal Williams
James Conner
Peyton Barber
C.J Anderson
Dwayne Washington

Wide Receiver-
The wide receiver is entirely news dependent this week.

Davante Adams looks like he'll go and he's in a tremendous spot if a positive report comes out in the morning that he is going to play a significant amount of the game. The Packers are still trying to win, and this is a spot with Equinemeous St. Brown looking doubtful, this is a great spot for Adams.

On the other side of the coin, Antonio Brown looks like he might miss, and if he does, JuJu Smith-Schuster immediately becomes the top play of the day. Even based on what we know, JuJu needs to be strongly considered in your lineup.

Other Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill
Robby Anderson
Sterling Shepard
Jordy Nelson
DeAndre Hopkins

Tight End-
I'm playing Travis Kelce in every lineup. Oakland has been one of the worst teams in the NFL against tight ends in a must-win game for Kansas City. There is plenty of value available to spend down elsewhere.

Saturday, December 29, 2018

Week 17 Bankroll Update

First and foremost I'm going to start this post by saying this. BE CAREFUL. There is an advantage to be had in Week 17, but it requires a ton of work and even then can be difficult as if a player tweaks anything they're done for the game. The good news is this is not the last week of this blog, we will be going through at least the conference championships and maybe the Super Bowl. 

Bankroll Update:
We're back over the starting mark for I think the first time this season? Maybe did it one other week, but then had a losing week?

Bankroll Last week- $9,666
Net Gain- $549
New Bankroll- $10,215.


I'm limiting my bankroll this week to just $1,000 in play which is the lowest I've had all season. Ultimately, it's a tough week that can be ugly at times and there is no sense in going big on the last week of the year.



Sunday, December 23, 2018

Overall great day


Yahoo
Finished 40th in Yahoo's Million Dollar Baller tournament. Doesn't count towards the FanDuel bankroll, but overall solid.

FanDuel-
Put up 145.44 with the lineup I put out, which puts me back above the $10,000 mark for the year. Won about $550 on FanDuel.

Todd Gurley is Out

Make sure to swap him out.

Favorite GPP Lineup


Week 16 Cash Game Lineup


Saturday, December 22, 2018

Week 16 Overview

Quarterback-

At the quarterback position this week there are really two choices in cash who coincidentally are both in the same game. The choice depends on the rest of your roster build, as you can either spend up or go down.

Nick Foles-
Foles is likely going to be the chalk this week going up against a Texans secondary that has struggled as of late. The Texans have allowed 300+ yards in three of their last four games and allowed Sam Darnold to throw for 253 last week. This is a unit that has allowed two passing touchdowns in three of their last four games as well. Foles' price remains too cheap on both DraftKings and FanDuel at just $4,700 and $6,000 respectively. He will likely be the highest owned cash game quarterback on both sites.

DeShaun Watson-
The matchup is perfect for Watson, as he's facing the Eagles who have allowed 269 yards passing or more in every game except one since Week 4. The one time they did not was the Redskins game in which Mark Sanchez played a majority of the game. The Eagles secondary has been horrendous as of late as they have been decimated with injury. The only question for Watson is whether he has the upside to justify the price as over his last 8 games he has gone over 20 fantasy points in just four of those games. With no Lamar Miller, the Texans will look to Watson's arm to lead them against the Eagles.

Other options-
Andrew Luck- FanDuel/DraftKings GPP
Dak Prescott- FanDuel/DraftKings GPP
Ben Roethlisberger- FanDuel/DraftKings Cash/GPP

Running Back-

Ezekiel Elliott needs to be in strong consideration for all of your lineups this week as he is in a perfect matchup. The Buccaneers have allowed four of the last five running backs they have faced to go for over 100 yards. The defensive line is good for Tampa Bay, but their linebackers are a major issue. Elliott has been utilized in the passing game as well as he has 25 receptions over his last three games.

Other Options-
Saquon Barkley- DraftKings Cash/GPP due to price
Marlon Mack- FanDuel/DraftKings Cash/GPP
Elijah McGuire- DraftKings GPP, FanDuel Cash/GPP
Christian McCaffrey- FanDuel/DraftKings Cash/GPP
Leonard Fournette- FanDuel/DraftKings GPP
Nick Chubb- FanDuel/DraftKings GPP
C.J. Anderson- FanDuel/DraftKings Cash/GPP

Wide Receiver-
There are a number of great options this week on the high-end as DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams, and Michael Thomas are all in fantastic matchups. The best play of this group, however, is DeAndre Hopkins going up against the Eagles. Keke Coutee and Lamar Miller are both out this week, so it is all Hopkins in this one. We've seen the Eagles give up some of the biggest games to opponents in giving up 10/217/3 to Amari Cooper and have allowed 70 yards receiving or more to 7 receivers over their last six games.

Other options-
Davante Adams- FanDuel/DraftKings Cash/GPP
Robert Woods- FanDuel/DraftKings Cash
Robby Anderson-  FanDuel/DraftKings Cash/GPP
Josh Reynolds- 19 targets over last two games FanDuel/Draftkings Cash/GPP
Sterling Shepard- FanDuel/DraftKings GPP
Stefon Diggs- FanDuel Cash/GPP DraftKings GPP

Tight End-
Eric Ebron is basically the must play on FanDuel at just $6,100 as he's too cheap, he's the first player I'm starting with on every lineup.

On DraftKings, there are a few players, it's really between Zach Ertz, Evan Engram, David Njoku, and Blake Jarwin. My favorite GPP play is Evan Engram and my favorite cash guy is Zach Ertz.




Week 16 Let's Finish Strong

Last week look great for a while, but no Jaylen Samuels along with Saquon struggling had me at slightly negative for the week on FanDuel. I was highly positive on Yahoo in their Million Dollar contest and they are running it again this week. While that does not count towards the bankroll as it is just a FanDuel tally, it made for a decent week.

Bankroll Last week- $9,876
Net Loss- ($210)
New Bankroll- $9,666

With two positive weeks, can easily get back to even or positive on the season.

Write-up coming shortly

Sunday, December 16, 2018

Favorite GPP Lineups

This week is hard for GPP's just like it is for cash games.

I'm going to give you two this week, the first is safer, the second is more risky.


First lineup- New England Stack with JuJu on the other side

Second lineup- I love Calvin Ridley's upside this week with Julio on Patrick Peterson for most of this game.



Gotta finish this year strong- Bankroll update.

Break-even is in sight after a rough start to the year. After last week's big week and the second one in three weeks, we're now close to break even which is not something I would have thought we would be saying six weeks ago when we were down $1,500 or so.

Starting Bankroll- $10,000
Current Bankroll- $9,824
Net Profit- ($176)


Pricing is soft this week. Week 15 Cash Lineup

There just are not a lot of ways to spend salary this week.  The concern I have is whether this week becomes too chalky as everyone just ends up spending up for both Barkley and Elliott, which is a shame as this is a great week for guys like Dalvin Cook, David Johnson, Joe Mixon, Chris Carson.

QB- Tom Brady seems like everyone is going there.

RB- Will everyone just pay up for both Barkley and Elliott? Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, and Jaylen Samuels are all in great spots, but I think when it comes to final builds people will pay up for Barkley and Elliott. 

WR- Amari Cooper will be nearly 100% owned as his price is ludicrous. Sterling Shepard will also see significant ownership due to the Beckham injury. 

TE- Eric Ebron or Jared Cook are how I'm looking this week. It really depends on the health of T.Y. Hilton. If Hilton is out, Ebron shoots up to number one on my list as Ebron saw 22 targets in the two games that Hilton was out earlier this year. If Hilton is active, Jared Cook is my guy.

Subject to change based on the T.Y Hilton news








Saturday, December 15, 2018

If you're going to play one contest this week, play Yahoo

Yahoo is hosting a $1M contest for $20 this week and it might be the best contest of all time. They are guaranteeing $250k in overlay, meaning they are only accepting $750k of entries and paying out $1M in prizes.

If you're going to play one contest this week, it should be this one. A lot of us have been frustrated by the rake that DraftKings and FanDuel have had over the years, well this is a way to band together and support a third site because if it doesn't fill, I'm sure they will never do anything similar.



https://sports.yahoo.com/dailyfantasy/contest/3751151

If you've never played on Yahoo before enter code yahoo25 for $25 in free play.

Saturday, December 8, 2018

Week 14 Thoughts

Can't believe we're already in Week 14.

I gave the warning last week, but this week the point remains the same. In cash, there has been enough injury news that has opened up, that you can easily build a lineup that you love. Be careful in not to go above your typical week's bankroll.

Quarterback-

This week, the quarterback is going to determine your success in cash. Up until yesterday, it was relatively an easy decision as I was going with Jameis Winston. However, with the rain concerns in Tampa Bay, I'll keep monitoring to decide if I go that route.

This week, where I'm going to end up is either Jameis if the weather gets better or Lamar Jackson who provides a nice floor with his running ability having rushed 70 yards or more in his three games as a starter and two touchdowns in those three games. This is a game in which he'll be looked to do a ton this week against the high powered Kansas City offense.

Other options-
Patrick Mahomes- I get the argument in cash, I just can't do it. This is one of the worst matchups that Mahomes will have all season and while he should be fine, the opportunity cost is too much in cash.

Aaron Rodgers- No McCarthy holding him back could do wonders for Rodgers this week

Cam Newton- Cleveland's defense is not a great one and has largely been propped up on turnovers and sacks at critical moments making it a fine fantasy defense but not a great real-life defense. This is an opportunity for Newton to exploit this defense.

Running Back-

Saquon Barkley

With Odell Beckham being out, I'm playing Saquon Barkley nearly everywhere. Barkley had moderate success mostly through the air the last time these two teams met, but since that game against the Giants, the Redskins run defense has largely struggled as they have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs and have allowed six running backs rush for 60 yards or more in their last five games. Barkley seems to be running harder than he did early in the season not pausing to wait for holes to develop nearly as much as early this season.

Christian McCaffrey-
McCaffrey's productivity over the last few games has been outstanding and he represents the new era of the NFL. The Browns have struggled against good running backs allowing 100 total yards or more to Lamar Miller (115), Joe Mixon (145), Kareem Hunt (141), James Conner twice (187, 210), Melvin Gordon (150), Marshawn Lynch (157), and Alvin Kamara came in at 99 yards.

Jaylen Samuels vs Jeff Wilson vs Justin Jackson-
This is going to be the asked question of the day. I love Justin Jackson, especially on FanDuel. Coach Anthony Lynn talked about how Austin Ekeler is starting to wear down a little bit and the matchup is perfect for the Chargers this week for Jackson to have a big game. Jackson is a tremendous GPP play and if you're scared off of it for cash, just go Samuels. I totally get the perspective of just canceling out Samuels and moving on as he will be extremely popular. I may do it myself just so my week isn't determined by which split carry back gets into the end zone.

Now onto Jeff Wilson, on FanDuel there is no way I'm going with him in cash as his price is too prohibitive. On DraftKings at his price, he's intriguing. The matchup is horrible against Denver, but that could play into Wilson's favor for the dump off passes this week. My DraftKings cash game lineup currently has both Wilson and Samuels.

Other Running Backs-
Alvin Kamara- There is always the risk with the Saints but in a great spot this week.

Ezekiel Elliott- I get the love as the Eagles defense is wearing down and Elliott has been on a tear, I prefer Barkley and McCaffrey over him this week.

Aaron Jones- Tremendous GPP play, was a bust last week but in a good matchup.

Phillip Lindsay- Solid GPP play, have to think that he comes back to reality at some point however as his yards per carry is not sustainable and isn't playing a role in the passing game.

Wide Receiver-

I want to love Michael Thomas this week, but just can't get behind it. The ankle concerns me and the lack of production of late has me worried at his price. The matchup is a good one, but so is the matchup on the ground game for the Saints.

Keenan Allen- Favorite cash gameplay of the day as the volume is just so incredibly high and is seeing touchdown opportunities having scored in three straight.

Davante Adams- Adams is my favorite GPP play of the week and is borderline cash viable. He's faced horrendous matchups three of the last four weeks with Xavien Howard, Patrick Peterson and the Xavier Rhodes and gets a favorable matchup this week in Robert Alford. It's possible that Adams surpasses Allen in my cash lineups when it's all said and done.

Sterling Shepard- This is a FanDuel only play, but at $5,200 he's far too cheap and will be the number one receiver for the Giants this week with most of the offense running through him and Saquon Barkley.

Adam Thielen- Seattle has allowed number one receivers to torch them as of late and seven receivers over the last six games have caught 89 or more yards. Diggs is also in a great spot this week.

Other Receivers-
DeAndre Hopkins- DraftKings only as he's too cheap in a good matchup

Adam Humphries- Just remains too consistent for his price going up against P.J. Williams

Larry Fitzgerald- Favorable matchup against the Lions who have struggled against slot receivers and Fitzgerald will get a majority of the targets with Christian Kirk out.

D.J. Moore- Denzel Ward is out, and the Browns don't have anyone fast enough to keep up with the speedster.

Zay Jones- Has shown recent upside as of late, but is more of a GPP play as he could land a 0 very easily on any given week.

Tight End-

Two ways to play it this week in cash. Spend up on Eric Ebron in cash or go down to Vance McDonald as the Raiders have been horrendous against tight ends all season which we saw last week against the Chiefs.

In cash, I'm not going either Kelce or Ertz this week, but if I preferred one it would be Kelce as Baltimore's average against the tight end which means that it is their one spot where they are week as their defense is elite elsewhere.

Sunday, December 2, 2018

Tyreek Hill What Could Have Been

6 Targets, 1 catch and it seems like every target he's had has either been dropped or just overthrown. Was in position to have a huge week. He had just three drops on the season heading into today and he has at least three today.

GPP Lineup

Here's my favorite GPP lineup this week.


Lineup and Bankroll Discussion

After last week, we are almost back to even as the bankroll is back to $9,655.

This week, I'm going lighter at only 10% of my bankroll. The reason for this is that I think the build is fairly simple this week and it is going to come down to quite a few 1v1 2v2 type matchups.


Not a ton of time this week- Week 13 Thoughts

Apologies for posting this late, have been dealing with some computer issues that had prevented me from getting this up as well as the Kareem Hunt news has everyone scrambling. Just going to post some quick thoughts and then the lineup.

Quarterback-
Quarterback is likely the most difficult position this week and in cash you might want to spend up this week as both Cam Newton and Patrick Mahomes are in tremendous spots.

GPP
Jeff Driskel
Lamar Jackson
Jameis Winston
Case Keenum
Aaron Rodgers

Running Back-

This position has actually gotten fairly easy. I'm playing Christian McCaffrey, Spencer Ware, and Aaron Jones everywhere.

GPP-
Todd Gurley
Saquon Barkley (Tremendous GPP on DraftKings this week)
Phillip Lindsay

Wide Receiver
Toughest position of the week this week outside of Emmanuel Sanders who is in a phenomenal spot this week going against a Bengals secondary that has been one of the worst for most of the season.

If you're spending up, both Tyreek Hill and Adam Thielen are the guys, but Hill is far too expensive on DraftKings so play him on FanDuel if you're doing so.

On the low end, Adam Humphries is my favorite play this week followed by Taylor Gabriel who is in a nice high floor situation in Chicago where he should catch 5-7 passes this week, and is a better play on DraftKings because of his high catch number.

GPP Thoughts
Davante Adams is my favorite guy here and is my favorite stack overall.
D.J. Moore
Kenny Golladay
Corey Davis

Tight End-
Just play Eric Ebron this week. If you want to play someone else, spend up or go all the way down to Matt Lacosse.

Sunday, November 25, 2018

Looking like a great week

A lot of self-reflecting, getting back to the basics and improvement this week. 

Between this and Thanksgiving it was a much needed week. GPP's weren't great, best lineup is my cash lineup.

FanDuel GPP Lineup


Week 12 Cash Lineup

The Gus Edwards news with Alex Collins being out is massive and makes him a top play today. 


Saturday, November 24, 2018

Week 12 Thoughts

I hope your Thanksgiving was a good one. This is a weird week in that people still have a Thanksgiving hangover.

Let's move into Week 12.

Quarterback-

At quarterback this week, the decision for me is between Lamar Jackson and Jameis Winston in cash. I am going with Lamar Jackson this week as I think the floor of Jackson with his running ability is higher than Winston who we've seen have a low floor with his turnover tendencies.

GPP Options
Andrew Luck- Has thrown 3 touchdowns in 6 straight games
Baker Mayfield- Going up against the Bengals defense who has been one of the worst in football this season

Running Back

Saquon Barkley is going to be the chalk once again this week especially with Melvin Gordon likely missing this week.

Nick Chubb-

Chubb is going up against the Bengals this week who have given up the most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. The Bengals have allowed 85 yards or more and a touchdown in each of their last five games. This is a prime spot for Chubb to have a big week.

Austin Ekeler-
Ekeler is going to be popular with Melvin Gordon missing, but I'm not going that direction. The reason for this is relatively simple, Austin Ekeler is also dealing with a neck injury and isn't built to have 15-20 carries in a game. I think Justin Jackson will get some work here along with Detrez Newsome.

GPP Options-

Joe Mixon
James Conner
Christian McCaffrey

Wide Receiver

Odell Beckham Jr.-


This Eagles secondary is an absolute mess. Braxton Miller who was a quarterback in college who played wide receiver in the NFL is practicing at cornerback this week to help with the Eagles with Jalen Mills, Avonte Maddox, Rasul Douglas and Sidney Jones sidelined. 

Keenan Allen-
With Melvin Gordon likely out, the Chargers are going to utilize Allen as an extension of the run game. He will draw the favorable coverage against the Cardinals as it's unlikely Patrick Peterson will shadow him into the slot.

Tyler Boyd-
Boyd's price came down to a reasonable price with A.J. Green out. The Browns have allowed the third most net passing yards per game and this could be the shootout game of the week.

GPP Options-
Antonio Brown- Scored a touchdown in every game but one this year.
T.Y. Hilton
Mike Evans
Curtis Samuel
Josh Gordon
Adam Humphries

Tight End

Paying up for tight end in cash has not been successful this season. So for that reason, I'm going with Cameron Brate this week. O.J. Howard was placed on IR and will be out with the season which means that Brate should see a significant workload in a good matchup. 

GPP Options-

Rob Gronkowski
Jack Doyle
Evan Engram
George Kittle
Zach Ertz

Thursday, November 22, 2018

Thanksgiving GPP Thoughts

Typing this up quickly as I've been writing now for far too long today and need some sleep before the games start.

Quarterback
At the quarterback position, I'm going with Chase Daniel pretty much everywhere. I don't think the drop off between Trubisky and Chase Daniel is that significant. No one will blame you if you want to go with Brees or Ryan, but I want to get some of the superstars in that game and by going expensive at the quarterback position you lose out on those guys.

Running Back-
This week is really simple. In GPP's there are five running backs that I'm considering in these games.

Obvious Plays
Alvin Kamara
Ezekiel Elliott
Mark Ingram

Under the Radar Plays:

Tarik Cohen- Chase Daniel will continue to check down in this game and much like Taylor Gabriel who is mentioned later in this article, both will be utilized heavily in the passing game.

Theo Riddick- With no Kerryon Johnson, Theo Riddick should see significant volume this week. Many will like LeGarrette Blount, but I prefer him in cash instead of GPP as he does not have the upside that Riddick does. If the Lions get down in this game, Riddick could see significant work out of the passing game in this one.

Wide Receiver-
The key to this slate is to find the value on this slate at the wide receivers. There are a number of guys who are intriguing this week.

Obviously, Julio Jones, Michael Thomas are the two guys that you should be trying to work into your lineup.

Taylor Gabriel- Breakaway speed and should be looking at significant work in underneath routes as they look to get Gabriel in space. Chase Daniel does not have the strongest arm and therefore will look at getting the ball out to playmakers who can make the big play.

Bruce Ellington- Matched up against a gambling cornerback in Prince Amukamara who has struggled the last two weeks and will continue to play a significant role in this offense.

Michael Gallup- Cheap and in an ideal matchup if Quinton Dunbar is out as he's facing Danny Johnson who has been one of the worst cornerbacks in football. You can read more about Johnson here which was a game breakdown I wrote up about this game on Footballguys.

Mohamed Sanu- Sanu is in the best matchup of any receiver in this game as he's going up against P.J. Williams who has been one of the worst slot corners in football. Sanu has tremendous upside this week.

Anthony Miller- Has touchdown equity as he has scored five touchdowns this season. Was on the second team earlier this year so he and Daniel should have some chemistry.

Tight End-

Jordan Reed is the clear cut guy here as he and Colt McCoy have had a history dating back to the last time Colt McCoy has played for a significant period of time.

If you want to be different, Trey Burton or Austin Hooper would be the other guys to target on this slate.

Defense-
The Saints on FanDuel are too cheap and the Bears on DraftKings are too cheap, that's the route I'm going this week.


Happy Thanksgiving- Preview

I don't have a great feeling on this Thanksgiving slate. I love a few of the guys in this lineup in Daniel, Elliott, Kamara, Thomas, Jones, and it just kind of fits.

Marvin Jones is going to miss this week, and Kerryon Johnson is also going to miss. This makes LeGarrette Blount and Bruce Ellington at least intriguing. I believe the Bears are going to game plan to take Kenny Golladay out of this game and force others to beat them this week.

Blount scares me in this lineup, but I love this lineup for cash. I'm not playing a ton of cash for Thanksgiving, as everyone is going to have very similar roster builds I feel like.




Sunday, November 18, 2018

Self Reflection Time

Having done this for 8 years, I've had two losing seasons. The first was year 1 back in 2011 where I was still learning. The second was 2014 as I was chasing live finals pretty hard, made one, but finished very low in it. The third year is likely going to be 2018.

At the end of this season, I need to go back and look at prior seasons and see what if anything I was doing differently. The reality is that 2018 seems like a difficult year for cash games, as seemingly every week there are players that you absolutely have to have or you're just going to lose. Here's where I'm at after 5 hours of reflection.

So what changed?
The first thing is that I don't think my bankroll management has been as tight as it should have been. I've come out on the wrong side of the high dollar contests with decent lineups and had I stuck with my strategy, I would be much closer to break even or even up a little bit.

The second thing I'm doing is just making bad lineups. There is no excuse to it other than recognizing that you're doing it and make corrections. I think college football likely has a large portion to do with this (which I manage for Footballguys as well) as the last few seasons has been 100% building lineups on Thursday-Saturday.

Are cash games still beatable?This is the first question I asked myself when dealing with the frustration I have been going through this year. My answer is that they are absolutely still beatable yes that they are still beatable. I look at as my process is flawed.

So where do we go from here?

The first change I'm going to make is more awareness and recognition of ownership. This was not something that I did last season or this season as I tend to like to live in my own bubble and trust my process. The reality is a lot of weeks my process yields the same guy in terms of ownership. Weeks like this week, I didn't really have a strong take about any of the running backs. So much so, that I ended up on Theo FREAKING Riddick in cash. In hindsight that was unbelievably stupid. Had I been more aware, I likely would have went off of Riddick and forced in Barkley along with other changes.

The second change that I'm going to make is I'm going to build my cash game on Thursday/Friday before any college football responsibilities instead of Saturday Night/Sunday. A large part of this has to do with just letting a lineup marinate in your mind.

Will any of this help?
Honestly who knows, but what I'm not going to do is just say that this is due to random variance. It would be easy for me to write this and explain how this is just variance in the process and say the difference between a 7-10 year and a 10-7 year will balance each other out over the long run. While that is true, the reality is that I have sucked this year and need to improve.

Forced to Late Swap

Forced to move to this, due to projecting so many people having Thomas and trying to chase the Barkley points.

Will also vary up my defenses, hoping to get differentiation in case New Orleans struggles.



No Saquon Barkley= Big Trouble

I am stunned by his ownership. I am facing Barkley in 148/150 H2H games.

The matchup was a good one, but with his price he wasn't someone I was going with due to his lack of consistent upside in 0.5 PPR. Have him everywhere on DraftKings.

Major mistake on my part.

GPP Lineup


JuJu is the wildcard here. Where the Jaguars struggle is against the slot going up against D.J. Hayden he should be able to potentially succeed at a very low ownership.

Cash Game Lineup

At the moment, rolling this out there. I'll be honest, Theo Riddick makes me very nervous, but with  no Marvin Jones this week, Riddick realistically should see close to 10 targets.


Saturday, November 17, 2018

Heading into Week 11

Last week was an alright week. Lost the big dollar H2H, but overall, the lineup would have been good in 50/50's and won 102 of my 150 H2H's for a net profit of 336, in those contests, but lost $200 overall due to the large H2H.

This is a big week and the reason I say this is that the bankroll is down to $9,144. Not good at all. Every week from this point through the rest of the season, there is no margin for error to get positive for the third consecutive season doing this blog.

Quarterback-

At the quarterback position, it's fairly simple this week for me. I'm rolling out Eli Manning against this awful Tampa Bay secondary on both FanDuel and DraftKings cash. The only exception to that would be if Lamar Jackson starts and then I would go with Jackson.

GPP Options-
Deshaun Watson- Everywhere
Carson Wentz- Everywhere
Ryan Fitzpatrick- DraftKings

Fading-
I'm fading Cam Newton this week. The matchup should be a good one, but Newton is a matchup-proof guy who we've seen struggle in great matchups and excel in difficult matchups.

Running Back-

At the running back position, this week is a tough one.

David Johnson is my top guy this week in terms of value and production. He's in a tremendous matchup against the Raiders who have one of the worst run defenses in football and Johnson has looked better recently since Byron Leftwich has taken over.

The other player I like is Alvin Kamara this week and the reason for that is that most of his runs are outside compared and the Saints can neutralize this elite defensive line a little bit by getting Kamara out in space as well as checking the ball down to him.

Other guys that I like-
Dion Lewis- Everywhere
Saquon Barkley- DraftKings only due to the PPR value
Ezekiel Elliott- FanDuel

Fading-
Melvin Gordon is going to popular, but I'm likely fading him as Denver's defense is playing much better recently.

Wide Receiver

I started the week with my favorite guy being Michael Thomas. As it stands now, I have him virtually even with DeAndre Hopkins, what I am likely doing is due to the price difference I'm playing Thomas on FanDuel and Hopkins on DraftKings.

The other must play guy for me this week is Corey Davis who remains simply too cheap for his talent.

Other Options
Larry Fitzgerald is too cheap on both sites, he's a nice cash game option this week.
John Brown- $5,400 on FanDuel is ridiculously cheap even if Lamar Jackson or RG3 gets the start.
Emmanuel Sanders
Devin Funchess- FanDuel
Nelson Agholor- DraftKings
Michael Gallup- DraftKings

Fading-
Amari Cooper. Once again another player that will be popular. I'm not going to tell you he's a bad play, but he's also Amari Cooper who we've seen inconsistency throughout his entire career. Could it be different in Dallas? Possibly, but I'm not buying it.

Tight End-

I am playing Zach Ertz in every contest I play this week. He's the first name I'm clicking on when I build a lineup.

If you want to go cheap, James O'Shaughnessy is fine, but I'm not doing it.

Sunday, November 11, 2018

Done with the high dollar h2h

It's officially killing my bankroll, as I keep getting matched up against the same guy. Even if I pull this one out, there is no edge as the overlap every week is so high.

Going back to what this blog has been about which has been growing the bankroll in the best way which continues to be a high volume of $5 and $10 h2h's.


535 H2H

Forgot to post this earlier, but here's where it stands.

https://www.fanduel.com/games/29736/contests/29736-222216222/entries/1592950758/scoring


Going to be a tight one.

Everyone loves FitzMAGIC

Of my 150 $10 h2h this week. He is rostered in 140 of those contests. Jordan Reed is in 110 contests. Crazy ownership in a week I thought would be a little bit different.

Guys I'm fading
Kareem Hunt is still loved by the masses, he was rostered in over 50% of the contests.
Josh Gordon is the guy that's second in terms of roster percentage that I'm facing.
Mike Evans is a guy I didn't have but facing a lot of.


GPP Lineup

I really hate giving out one GPP lineup, but since you guys asked for it. The reason I don't like it is that I typically have 5-10 lineups that I roll out there instead of just one so picking my favorite is always a tough decision.


Week 10 Cash Lineup

Here's where I'm at with the lineup this week. 

Bankroll is down to $9,475 on the year. 150 $10 h2h lineups this week. I might add a high $ h2h or double up in there as well just to show it here.




Saturday, November 10, 2018

Week 10 Preview

I feel like the Jacksonville Jaguars at the moment. Plenty of talent, but a team that just can't get out of its own way and is on a severe losing streak. Much like the Jaguars and Jalen Ramsey talking about how bad opposing quarterbacks are, we got a little bit cocky posting high dollar head to head games, questioning opponents decisions etc. This week, we're breaking the trend, simply by going back to how this channel started. I've joined 150 $10 contests throughout this week.

Much like the Jaguars who were on a bye week I took a couple of days completely away from DFS. Monday and most of Tuesday was re-setting after a very frustrating week last week to put up a good team and Adam Thielen aka Mr. Consistency is the reason you lost is tough.

We're on to Week 10.

Quarterback-

This week is a week like no other in the sense that I can legitimately make an argument for about six guys.

Top Options-

Ryan Fitzpatrick- FanDuel Cash/GPP

The Redskins secondary is an absolute mess at the moment. It's looking like Quinton Dunbar might miss as well. This is a unit that is allowing 315 yards passing per game since week 3. They have an elite run d, but their pass defense is really struggling. He is too expensive for me on DraftKings.

Drew Brees- DraftKings Cash/ All GPP's

The Bengals secondary might be the worst in the league at the moment. If you take out two of their games one of which is a game script loss to Carolina where Carolina did not need to throw the ball and a game against Ryan Tannehill who isn't very good, the Bengals have allowed 385 yards passing in all of their other games.

Other Plays
Matt Ryan- DraftKings Cash/ All GPP's
Aaron Rodgers- DraftKings GPP
Baker Mayfield- All GPP's

Running Back-

Top Options

Melvin Gordon- Everywhere
This is a week in which I am plugging Melvin Gordon in every contest. The Raiders can't defend anybody on the ground allowing 5.13 yards per carry on the season to opposing running backs and has lost two of its leaders on the front seven in Khalil Mack and Bruce Irvin. Not sure the team has the talent or the will to turn around this sinking ship.

Other Options-
Dion Lewis- All contests- Here's another situation where they did not increase his price after a strong Monday Night Football game.
Mike Davis- If Chris Carson misses, Davis will be a top play of the day, the problem is we likely won't know this until after lineup lock
Alvin Kamara- FanDuel cash, All GPP's
Kareem Hunt- All GPP's
Aaron Jones- FanDuel cash, All GPP's
Mark Ingram- All GPP's
Duke Johnson- DraftKings GPP
David Johnson- DraftKings GPP

Wide Receiver-

Top Options

Michael Thomas- Everywhere
He's going to be extremely popular, but I have a hard time building a lineup that does not have Michael Thomas in it. There is simply too much value at the running back position to not spend up on Thomas in an ideal matchup this week as I already talked about how bad this secondary is.

Marquez Valdez-Scantling- FanDuel Must Play
MVS is emerging as the number two receiver in Green Bay in a great matchup in which Xavien Howard should be taking Davante Adams. He's almost a must play on FanDuel at $5,400 and fade at your own risk.

Other Options-
Josh Gordon- FanDuel Cash- All GPP
Cooper Kupp- FanDuel Cash- All GPP
Marvin Jones- FanDuel Cash-
Maurice Harris- DraftKings Cash Only
Quincy Enunwa- DraftKings Cash/GPP
Corey Davis- FanDuel Cash- All GPP
Larry Fitzgerald- FanDuel Cash Only
Dj Chark- All GPP
Adam Humphries- DraftKings Cash- All GPP

Fading Tyler Boyd this week, he will be popular, but I think his price is far too expensive and not sure he can emerge into a #1 receiver with A.J. Green playing

Tight End-

This is really price dependent, in cash, I'm playing David Njoku on DraftKings and Jordan Reed on FanDuel. Both are fine GPP plays as well.

Other Options-
Trey Burton- All GPP
Jonnu Smith- DraftKings GPP
Jack Doyle- DraftKings GPP

Defense-
In cash, I'm going with either the Saints or the Packers depending on what I can afford. I may replace the Saints with the Buccaneers if the injuries for the Washington offensive line materialize into missing time.

In GPP's, all three are solid plays, and if you want to spend up go with Chicago or Jacksonville. 


Sunday, November 4, 2018

Not great

Lost the big H2H's because of Kamara, which is tough. Ended up doing ok in a lot of my other contests, but putting up 140 and losing is a tough one to swallow. Ended up down $700 in total. Disappointing.

What went right:

Running Backs- Going with Hunt, McCaffrey, and Chubb worked well.

Fitzpatrick over Cam Newton worked out tremendously

Fading Denver- I had builds with Sanders and Sutton and went up against a few people who did that. It worked out not going with those players as even though there was no Demaryius Thomas, Sanders and Sutton weren't great this week.

What went wrong:

Adam Thielen- The day likely would have looked very different if I used DeAndre Hopkins or Michael Thomas who were both at the same price. I chose Thielen even though he had the worst matchup thinking he was matchup proof with the highest floor.

What is frustrating about this, is that he was not listed on the injury report. The beat reporter said he was dealing with a calf injury. I would have never played him if this was released before the game like it is supposed to be.

Two Lions receivers- The offensive line gave the Lions no chance in this game as Stafford was consistently getting hit before routes could even develop. I loved Cooper Kupp

Not finding a way for Kelce- On Thursday I set a reminder to go off on Sunday at 11 that simply said "START KELCE YOU DUMMY".  Did I listen to myself? Did I listen to what I wrote on Saturday during the preview? Of course not.

2 $535 H2H

Facing Cam, and McCaffrey in both.

https://www.fanduel.com/games/29518/contests/29518-221920008/entries/1583576356/scoring

https://www.fanduel.com/games/29518/contests/29518-221919198/entries/1583576350/scoring





Updated Cash Lineup- Fading Gurley

We'll see how this goes, typically these changes haven't worked in the past, but I like this lineup a lot more than my previous lineup.

I honestly just couldn't stomach starting Laquon Treadwell and the amount I had to give up for Gurley was too much. Going with both Lions receivers who combined should have a high floor, and Thielen who is a machine.

The thought process in taking Jones and Golladay is if they can get me a combined 24 points (10 catches 130 yards and a touchdown) then I'll take it. Obviously, the upside is much higher and Xavier Rhodes is extremely limited in warmups.

.




Warning about Miami Field Conditions vs Jets



This was the same stadium last night that the Dolphins are going to play in. There's a lot of reports coming out that the field conditions are less than optimal in Miami due to the rain and the college game.

I don't know what to make of it, I've pulled players from that game, but mostly because I wasn't in love with anyone in that game anyway.

Favorite GPP Lineup

I'm going to be avoiding some of the more popular plays this week in GPP (Newton, Sutton, Gurley, Hunt, McCaffrey). The reason is I can make a case that the wide receivers have the same if not a great upside and no one is going to be on them.


To view ownership percentages done by FBG Steve Buzzard, go here.

FanDuel
https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2018-dfs-percent-rostered-week09

DraftKings
https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2018-dfs-percent-rostered-week09


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Week 9 Cash Lineup

This is a situation where my lineup on DraftKings looks completely different than it does on FanDuel, and while I wish I could give out my DraftKings lineup, they prevent that in their community guidelines.

On DraftKings, I am not running out Gurley in cash, instead, I am pairing McCaffrey and Hunt in the same lineup.

Here's my FanDuel lineup this week. One thing that I thought about doing was going with both Golladay and Jones in the same lineup and getting a majority of the passing yards in that game. Same thing with Emmanuel Sanders and Courtland Sutton. However, this week, I went with Treadwell cheap, in order to be able to spend up on Kareem Hunt and Todd Gurley.

I can't get over the Fitzpatrick price and how cheap it is.


Saturday, November 3, 2018

Heading Into Week 9

The season continues to fly by, but here we are in Week 9.

Last week was horrendous, let's see if we can get back to the winning side of things. 

Bankroll Prior to Last Week $11,525
Net Profit (Loss)- ($1,350)
New Bankroll- $10,175

Quarterback-

For cash games this week, I think it is you either go with Cam Newton or Patrick Mahomes. This week it is really site specific, as I'm paying up for Mahomes on DraftKings, and going with Newton on FanDuel. Both are fine GPP plays as well, but Newton might be a little bit too popular for me this week in GPP's. 

GPP plays-
Ryan Fitzpatrick- FanDuel
Baker Mayfield- FanDuel/DraftKings
Aaron Rodgers is a tremendous GPP play on the all-day slates. 

Running Back-
The question this week is whether to pay up for Todd Gurley or not. New Orleans has been great against the run this season, but Todd Gurley is largely matchup proof. At the moment, Gurley is not in my cash game lineup, but that definitely could change in the next 24 hours. The reasons for it are 

Top Options- Cash and GPP

Todd Gurley- Needs no explanation. If you can fit him in, go with it. 

Kareem Hunt- I love Kareem Huntt his week particularly on DraftKings, but really in all formats. We saw what James Conner did against this Browns defense last week and with no Joe Schobert in the middle, along with a struggling defensive line outside of Myles Garrett, this is a tremendous opportunity for Hunt to have a big day in a game in which the Chiefs should be able to control.

Christian McCaffrey- We saw last week what Joe Mixon was able to do against this banged up Tampa Bay defense that is missing Kwon Alexander, Vita Vea and possibly Gerald McCoy. This defense has also struggled against receiving backs, allowing two backs to go for over 100 yards receiving. McCaffrey is my favorite play on DraftKings this week and is serviceable on FanDuel, but is not a must play. 

Nick Chubb- This backfield is Nick Chubb's at the moment, and he remains too cheap on both sites, but in particular DraftKings his price is way too low. The Chiefs have allowed running backs since Week 3 to run for 127 yards per game which is the fourth-most in the NFL over that time period. 

Latavius Murray- This Lions defense has been one of the worst in the NFL this season and even with Snacks Harrison being added to the team showed very little allowing Chris Carson to have a big day last week. The Lions are allowing the most rushing yards per game in the NFL and this is a tremendous opportunity for Murray this week. 

GPP Targets (Cash viable if noted)-
Philip Lindsay (Might be a flex spot on FanDuel in cash)
Adrian Peterson- FanDuel only
Lamar Miller
Isaiah Crowell- DraftKings Cash Viable

Wide Receivers

The top end receivers this week don't really intrigue me in cash, I'm going with more middle of the pack guys. 

Top Option- Cash and GPP
Emmanuel Sanders- Should benefit from Demaryius Thomas being traded and his price is too cheap around the industry.

Marvin Jones- Xavier Rhodes should shadow Kenny Golladay, leaving Jones with the better matchup of the two. Both players are in play due to the Golden Tate trade, but prefer Jones this week.  

Cooper Kupp- Going up against P.J. Williams who is one of the worst cornerbacks in the NFL. Plus his grandfather is being recognized by the Saints during this game if you're into the narratives.

Courtland Sutton- DraftKings Cash- Sutton is too cheap and should be on your DraftKings roster. You can do it on FanDuel, but you probably don't have to as he does carry some risk even though he should have a solid floor replacing Demaryius Thomas.

Danny Amendola- Prefer on DraftKings- Nice floor this week

GPP Targets (Cash viable if noted)-
Sammy Watkins- (Cash viable on DraftKings at $4,900) 
Michael Thomas- Marcus Peters has really struggled this year and this game should be a shootout. 


Tight End-

Top Option- Cash and GPP
Travis Kelce-I'm trying to pay up for Kelce in almost every lineup. The Browns have not played any tight ends this season and the only one they did they allowed Jared Cook to go for 110/2 touchdowns. Kelce should be a focal point of this game and a complete mismatch for the Browns.

GPP Targets (Cash viable if noted)-
David Njoku- (Cash game viable play on FanDuel just because his price is too cheap)
Greg Olsen
Trey Burton
Jeff Heurman- (Cash game viable on DraftKings if you're just looking to punt the position)

Defense-
I don't pay up for defenses, but the Chicago Bears are extremely enticing this week. However, with that said, I'm going with the Buffalo Bills in all contests. Simply too cheap especially on FanDuel where they are the site minimum, going up against Chicago at home and Trubisky has thrown some interceptions this season.  




Sunday, October 28, 2018

Not a great week- Hindsight is not always 20/20

Things would have been a lot better if Gurley scored that last touchdown

In hindsight however, I'm not sure what I would have done differently.

What went right:

I was starting my lineup with Conner+Gurley no matter what. Gurley wasn't bad and would have been great if he scored at the end of the game.

Eli Manning. Manning had 320 yards and really should have had about 380 yards and a touchdown but Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram dropped about 4 passes on third down. This allowed me to spend up at other positions.

Phillip Lindsay- 18.7 points from a 6,500 player I'll take every time.

Arizona D- 8 points at $3,400 for a defense is a success

What went wrong

David Njoku-
This is the one that crushed me. I still am not sure what happened here, did he get hurt, did he get benched, it'll be interesting to see the snap counts tomorrow, as I didn't see him on the field at all this week. I could have went with Jared Cook, but based on recent results, I had Njoku as a more consistent player. I don't think my process was going to get me there this week.

Jordy Nelson-
This was a mistake plain and simple. I thought about Marquise Goodwin, but the reality is I shouldn't have spent up

Robert Woods-
I debated Tyreek Hill and Woods and the reality is that neither were the right call. I should have spent down to Tyler Boyd and upgraded a different position.

Summary

Not 100% sure what the learning here is. David Njoku is a mystery that I still can't wrap my head around.

I think the learning is that I knew what Amari Cooper's role in this offense was, and it was extremely inconsistent. Expecting Jordy to come in and take over that role and be consistent was a huge mistake. He hadn't been consistent all year and now was going to draw more focus in coverage this week.

Still profitable after 8 weeks even with this week being largely a wash out.

1k H2H

I'm not sure if you guys care, or like that I'm showing it, so if you want me to keep doing these let me know in the comments section.

https://www.fanduel.com/games/29305/contests/29305-221614550/entries/1574058486/scoring

Here's a 1k H2H, I posted earlier today. Looks like my opponent determined not to go with Todd Gurley, which was something I was looking at late in the process but couldn't pull the trigger. Dalton and Mixon is interesting essentially hoping that the Bengals have a huge day, which could very well happen.

With his two remaining positions, I'm assuming it is Jordy Nelson and Jimmy Graham.

Week 8 Lineups

Here is where I currently am at. I don't love the final builds, I seemingly am $100 or $200 away from a great build each time.

I've added  Phillip Lindsay as a tremendous play in cash, I missed earlier in the week that Freeman was out, and at $6,500 have gotten myself comfortable with Lindsay in all formats as he should be able to catch 5 passes in this game and have a significant role early as the Broncos look to keep the Chiefs off the field.


If you are not comfortable with Eli Manning, here is another lineup I'm ok with.

Here's a GPP lineup I'm running with.



Saturday, October 27, 2018

Week 8 Thoughts

It's crazy to think we're at the half way point this week, but here we are (I don't count week 17).

Last week was a good one as we posted the two $500 h2h that were winners.

Bankroll is up to $11,525 this week after starting with $10,000. Quite the winning streak after a few horrible weeks to start the year.

Quarterback-

Eli Manning- FD/DK Cash/GPP
He's simply too cheap on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Quinton Dunbar appears out and Fabian Moreau is dealing with an ankle injury. Josh Norman is still in this secondary, but he has not shadowed a receiver all season and I'm not sure it starts this week. We'll see if I have the guts to go with Manning in cash, but think he's an excellent GPP play this week.

Jameis Winston-FD/DK Cash/GPP
Winston is the safest cash game quarterback for the cost. He's likely going to be the most popular guy in GPP's which is a little bit tough, but this game should be a shootout and if you want to take him in GPP's, pair him with a guy like Chris Godwin instead of DeSean Jackson or Mike Evans.

Mitchell Trubisky- FD Cash/GPP only as he remains too cheap in a good matchup

Kirk Cousins- FD/DK GPP- If you're playing the Sun/Mon slate should be able to carve up this Saints secondary

Ben Roethlisberger- FD/DK GPP- Roethlisberger at home coming off the bye. Favorite stack with him this week is with JuJu Smith-Schuster.


Running Back 

Todd Gurley- FD/DK Cash/GPP- Is there really anything that needs to be said here? I'm putting Gurley in my cash and GPP's this week and will differentiate my lineups elsewhere.

James Conner- FD/DK Cash/GPP- The Browns are dealing with some linebacker issues and the Steelers should get out to a big lead in this one. Conner had a big game last go around against this Browns team and his price is pretty reasonable.

Chris Carson- DK Cash- Chris Carson is a nice play this week in cash only as I don't think he has the upside in a GPP due to his lack of receiving ability, but he's priced down in a good matchup against Detroit even with the Snacks Harrison acquisition.

Adrian Peterson- FD Cash/GPP Has rushed for 90+ yards in every game that the Redskins have not gotten blown out. Don't expect the Redskins to get blown out against the Giants this week.

Raheem Mostert- DK Cash/GPP FanDuel GPP- If Breida is out, Mostert should see a lot of time this week.

Duke Johnson- DK GPP- This is expected to be a blowout which could mean that Duke sees the field a lot and is priced down accordingly.

Saquon Barkley- DK GPP- Has caught 18 balls the last two weeks combined. He's basically a lock for 6 catches this week.


Wide Receiver-
Odell Beckham- DK/FD Cash/GPP Should get a favorable matchup this week against 7th round rookie draft pick Greg Stroman. Expect Beckham to have a big week this week at home to a corner who has struggled with double moves.

Emmanuel Sanders- DK/FD Cash/GPP- All the garbage time for Sanders this week against a bad Chiefs secondary.

Robert Woods- DK/FD Cash/GPP- Cooper Kupp looks like he'll miss again which increases Woods' value

Anthony Miller- DK Cash/GPP FD GPP- If Allen Robinson misses, Miller is a nice darkhorse candidate for the Bears as he had 7 targets last week and is in a favorable matchup.

Jordy Nelson- FD Cash- Too cheap on FanDuel at $5,300.

Davante Adams- DK/FD GPP- Too expensive to get in cash with wanting to spend up at running back and with Cobb/Allison looking like they'll return, but Adams is going to be a focal point of this offense especially in the Red Zone.

JuJu Smith-Schuster- DK/FD GPP Expect Denzel Ward to shadow Antonio Brown which should mean JuJu is in a favorable matchup against either Damarious Randall or Briean Boddy-Calhoun.

Michael Crabtree- DK Cash- At $4,800 against a Carolina team that is better against the run than the pass, he's a nice trustworthy play this week.

Jermaine Kearse- DK/FD Cash/GPP- Not sure I'm going back there but Kearse is basically the only wide receiver playing for the Jets who has seen significant time this season as Robby Anderson and Quincy Enunwa are looking out this week.

Paul Richardson- DK Cash/GPP FD GPPCould be facing a corner who has only seen 4 snaps all season in undrafted rookie Grant Haley.

Tight End-

I'm playing David Njoku in 90%+ of my contests, I think the matchup is perfect as the Steelers have struggled against tight ends and the Browns will be forced to throw. I'll have a little Jordan Reed in GPP's due to how few of receiving options the Redskins have.

C.J. Uzomah, Jeff Heuerman, and Chris Herndon (yikes)are your pay down guys this week on DraftKings.

Defense-
This week is simple, Pittsburgh on DraftKings, Arizona on FanDuel. You could use Baltimore as a GPP play as they're too talented to be this cheap.


Sunday, October 21, 2018

Simply got lucky

To win this week with Kearse and Elliott do essentially nothing is simply lucky by going with two high dollar h2h. Horrible bankroll management strategy, but part of one large h2h is that it doesn't matter how bad your lineup is compared to the industry it just has to be better than one persons lineup. Don't typically like playing that way as it often works in reverse where your lineup is better than average but face a tough opponent, but it worked in my favor this week.

Not going to try to sugar coat it, the lineup sucked. I wasn't on Kearse at all this week, I think I even criticized it on the podcast and then found myself suckered into it based on a lot of smart people talking him up.

Elliott was similar, the matchup was a bad one as Washington's rebuilt defensive line has been good, I planned to go Thielen all week and honestly should have but got scared off by the wind.

Even though the bankroll is up, this week feels like a loss since I gave out an awful lineup.

Two Head to Head Reviews

Here are two $535 H2H games that I joined.

Going up against Blake Bortles in both, I sort of get it due to how cheap he was, but he wasn't even on my cash game radar.

Facing Jarvis Landry in both, which I understand, always like him more on FanDuel, but at $6,500 he was a value.

https://www.fanduel.com/games/29092/contests/29092-221320113/entries/1564410187/scoring

https://www.fanduel.com/games/29092/contests/29092-221302084/entries/1563697251/scoring

This second one I don't get. Antonio Callaway makes no sense to me why you would play him in cash.

Week 7 Cash Lineup

Bankroll advice-
As much as I love this week, I'm not going above the 13% range that I typically go with for % of bankroll. We're back over the starting mark and in the profit zone after a horrible start to the season.

Current bankroll $10,450
Amount in play- $1,400

I have been talked into Jermaine Kearse due to Quincy Enunwa being out. Both John Lee and Ryan Hester (fellow analysts on the Power Grid for those that don't follow that forum) and have brought him up multiple times in their articles.



As a bonus, here is my favorite GPP lineup I have today on FanDuel.

Saturday, October 20, 2018

Heading into Week 7

Power Grid-
We are creating a contest for Power Grid listeners, go to for some details and a chance to win $50.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uakE6487eo&t=1s

I'm in love with this week. There are so many ways to go that this is the first real cash game week. The first couple of weeks quarterback has basically been either you have to start this player, or you have to pick one or the other player.

Weather-
There are two weather games that I am trying to avoid players due to high winds
Carolina @ Philadelphia
Minnesota @ NYJ- (Adam Thielen is the one exception to this)

Thoughts on the slate:

I love this Chicago New England game to be a shootout.

All Players Cash and GPP viable unless otherwise noted.

Quarterback-
Tom Brady- DK GPP Only
Mitchell Trubisky- DK
Joe Flacco- DK (Cash Only), I don't think he has the upside in a GPP
Baker Mayfield- FD Cash/GPP and DK GPP
Jameis Winston- FD
Matthew Stafford- DK/FD

Running Back

This week it seems pretty easy. In cash, I am going with Todd Gurley and Nick Chubb on FanDuel and DraftKings. I am avoiding Chubb in GPP's due to his ownership and there is some risk that the Browns will limit him and go with a heavy dosage of Mayfield in GPP with the thought that the Browns won't fully unleash Chubb week 1.

Peyton Barber is extremely cheap as well and the Browns linebacking group is pretty banged up.

Other running backs-
Sony Michel- DK and FD. James White is simply too expensive on DraftKings, but could be a fine low-owned GPP play.
Tarik Cohen- DraftKings GPP
Ezekiel Elliott- GPP
LeSean McCoy- GPP

Wide Receiver
Mike Evans- I firmly believe Denzel Ward will shadow DeSean Jackson as it would be a significant size discrepency if he shadowed Evans. T.J. Carrie is sliding to the outside with the injury to E.J. Gaines who is 210 pounds but is a slot corner moving outside which is something I want to take advantage of.

Robert Woods- Cooper Kupp is out which means Robert Woods will slide to the slot. I love Robert Woods as a slot receiver and think it's his natural fit.

Taylor Gabriel- Turning into the number one receiver in this Bears offense. SHould be in a good spot this week and is still too cheap

Marquise Goodwin- Goodwin is the guy that did not get the proper price adjustment due to playing on Monday Night last week. He's too cheap on both sites.

Keke Coutee- DK, should see a significant role with Jalen Ramsey locking down Deandre Hopkins

Adam Thielen- FD/DK Cash- Don't love him in GPP due to the weather, but he's too consistent at this point and going up against a bad Jets secondary.

Michael Crabtree/John Brown- I prefer Crabtree in cash and Brown in GPP, but the matchup is good as discussed with Flacco earlier.

Tight End-
David Njoku- Cash price is still too cheap
O.J. Howard- GPP with the Browns linebacker issues

Defense-
I'm playing Cleveland everywhere once again as I pretty much have done all year.

Sunday, October 14, 2018

Today is a good day

This is one of those days that make it all worth it.

Don't think I'll have any high GPP finishes, but should win nearly all my cash games.

Updated Cash Game Lineup- Latavius Murray

Dalvin Cook was expected to be on a snap count this week. He is now inactive, which means I'm going to make some changes to get Latavius Murray in my lineup. Nothing major, it is an easy fit downgrading Howard to Murray and upgrading Conner to Gordon. Still wish I had $100 extra for Dalton.


Week 6 Cash Lineup

This week is hard. The question I keep going back to is whether to play Julio Jones on FanDuel. Where I've landed is that I am going to play him as if he is as highly owned as most expect, I want him to at least be a block for my opponents.

I love this lineup, I wish I was able to find $100 more for Andy Dalton or Tyler Boyd (over Howard), but I'm not really willing to sacrifice any other position to do so. You could go Conner down to Elliott and Winston up to Dalton, but I think the drop from Conner to Elliott is a tough one in cash. If I were to be able to accept Elliott in cash, I would upgrade Jordan Howard to Tyler Boyd first.

Putting a normal 13% of my bankroll in play this week, just because I think everyone thinks this is hard while I've found a lineup I really like.




Saturday, October 13, 2018

Week 6 Thoughts

First off, if you haven't checked out this week's DFS Power Grid, I highly encourage you to check it out. If we reach 7k views which we have done twice this season, I'll be having a giveaway where someone will play a free contest with the Power Grid gang to win some cash.

Power Grid Week 6

Onto Week 6

Week 6 is a tough week. I manage the rushing and passing matchups that get sent out to Footballguys free email list each week and this is the first week where we only have 1 team that has a "Great" rushing matchup that is on the main slate which is Tampa who we would not really want to start either of their running backs to begin with.

The biggest question is whether you want to pay up for Todd Gurley this week. There is a lot of safety in doing so as the Broncos just got shredded by the Jets last week, but this is still a unit that was the one of the best in 2017 was a top-five unit up until last week. Gurley is matchup proof, and on FanDuel he is more attractive than on DraftKings where his price is extremely prohibitive.

QB-
Matt Ryan- Cash and GPP DK/FD
Jameis Winston- Cash only DK
Andy Dalton- Cash (FD), GPP (FD/DK )
Andrew Luck- Cash (DK) GPP (FD/DK)
Case Keenum- will have to throw 50+ times and is too cheap on FanDuel
Baker Mayfield- GPP only

RB-
Todd Gurley- Cash and GPP
Melvin Gordon- This is probably the route that I am going this week, especially on DraftKings
Marshawn Lynch- Cash and GPP
Bilal Powell everywhere if Crowell is out
Chris Carson- Cash
Jordan Howard- FD-cash

WR-
What to do with Atlanta receivers-
This is tough, I really like all three receivers, my favorite is Mohammed Sanu of the three just because his price is so low. I'm probably not going to have any Julio this week which scares me and will likely keep me up most of Saturday night.

If you're going to play Julio, I suggest doing it on DraftKings, where it is more viable due to the 100 yard bonus that is in play. The issue is that he will likely be one of if not the most popular player on DraftKings which for GPP's he is a solid fade for me.

Will Fuller- FD-GPP only
Mike Evans- FD-cash
Taylor Gabriel- DK-Cash/GPP
Michael Crabtree- FD/DK- Cash and GPP
Antonio Brown- FD/DK GPP only
Jarvis Landry- DK- cash
Keke Coutee- DK- cash
Quincy Enunwa- FD/DK cash

TE-
Cameron Brate- FD- Cash/GPP
David Njoku- DK- Cash/GPP
Nick Vannett- DK- GPP

Defense-
What does Cleveland have to do to raise the cost of their defense? They have 15 turnovers so far this season when the next closest team has just 11. This is a far too talented unit for their price.