Saturday, December 8, 2018

Week 14 Thoughts

Can't believe we're already in Week 14.

I gave the warning last week, but this week the point remains the same. In cash, there has been enough injury news that has opened up, that you can easily build a lineup that you love. Be careful in not to go above your typical week's bankroll.

Quarterback-

This week, the quarterback is going to determine your success in cash. Up until yesterday, it was relatively an easy decision as I was going with Jameis Winston. However, with the rain concerns in Tampa Bay, I'll keep monitoring to decide if I go that route.

This week, where I'm going to end up is either Jameis if the weather gets better or Lamar Jackson who provides a nice floor with his running ability having rushed 70 yards or more in his three games as a starter and two touchdowns in those three games. This is a game in which he'll be looked to do a ton this week against the high powered Kansas City offense.

Other options-
Patrick Mahomes- I get the argument in cash, I just can't do it. This is one of the worst matchups that Mahomes will have all season and while he should be fine, the opportunity cost is too much in cash.

Aaron Rodgers- No McCarthy holding him back could do wonders for Rodgers this week

Cam Newton- Cleveland's defense is not a great one and has largely been propped up on turnovers and sacks at critical moments making it a fine fantasy defense but not a great real-life defense. This is an opportunity for Newton to exploit this defense.

Running Back-

Saquon Barkley

With Odell Beckham being out, I'm playing Saquon Barkley nearly everywhere. Barkley had moderate success mostly through the air the last time these two teams met, but since that game against the Giants, the Redskins run defense has largely struggled as they have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs and have allowed six running backs rush for 60 yards or more in their last five games. Barkley seems to be running harder than he did early in the season not pausing to wait for holes to develop nearly as much as early this season.

Christian McCaffrey-
McCaffrey's productivity over the last few games has been outstanding and he represents the new era of the NFL. The Browns have struggled against good running backs allowing 100 total yards or more to Lamar Miller (115), Joe Mixon (145), Kareem Hunt (141), James Conner twice (187, 210), Melvin Gordon (150), Marshawn Lynch (157), and Alvin Kamara came in at 99 yards.

Jaylen Samuels vs Jeff Wilson vs Justin Jackson-
This is going to be the asked question of the day. I love Justin Jackson, especially on FanDuel. Coach Anthony Lynn talked about how Austin Ekeler is starting to wear down a little bit and the matchup is perfect for the Chargers this week for Jackson to have a big game. Jackson is a tremendous GPP play and if you're scared off of it for cash, just go Samuels. I totally get the perspective of just canceling out Samuels and moving on as he will be extremely popular. I may do it myself just so my week isn't determined by which split carry back gets into the end zone.

Now onto Jeff Wilson, on FanDuel there is no way I'm going with him in cash as his price is too prohibitive. On DraftKings at his price, he's intriguing. The matchup is horrible against Denver, but that could play into Wilson's favor for the dump off passes this week. My DraftKings cash game lineup currently has both Wilson and Samuels.

Other Running Backs-
Alvin Kamara- There is always the risk with the Saints but in a great spot this week.

Ezekiel Elliott- I get the love as the Eagles defense is wearing down and Elliott has been on a tear, I prefer Barkley and McCaffrey over him this week.

Aaron Jones- Tremendous GPP play, was a bust last week but in a good matchup.

Phillip Lindsay- Solid GPP play, have to think that he comes back to reality at some point however as his yards per carry is not sustainable and isn't playing a role in the passing game.

Wide Receiver-

I want to love Michael Thomas this week, but just can't get behind it. The ankle concerns me and the lack of production of late has me worried at his price. The matchup is a good one, but so is the matchup on the ground game for the Saints.

Keenan Allen- Favorite cash gameplay of the day as the volume is just so incredibly high and is seeing touchdown opportunities having scored in three straight.

Davante Adams- Adams is my favorite GPP play of the week and is borderline cash viable. He's faced horrendous matchups three of the last four weeks with Xavien Howard, Patrick Peterson and the Xavier Rhodes and gets a favorable matchup this week in Robert Alford. It's possible that Adams surpasses Allen in my cash lineups when it's all said and done.

Sterling Shepard- This is a FanDuel only play, but at $5,200 he's far too cheap and will be the number one receiver for the Giants this week with most of the offense running through him and Saquon Barkley.

Adam Thielen- Seattle has allowed number one receivers to torch them as of late and seven receivers over the last six games have caught 89 or more yards. Diggs is also in a great spot this week.

Other Receivers-
DeAndre Hopkins- DraftKings only as he's too cheap in a good matchup

Adam Humphries- Just remains too consistent for his price going up against P.J. Williams

Larry Fitzgerald- Favorable matchup against the Lions who have struggled against slot receivers and Fitzgerald will get a majority of the targets with Christian Kirk out.

D.J. Moore- Denzel Ward is out, and the Browns don't have anyone fast enough to keep up with the speedster.

Zay Jones- Has shown recent upside as of late, but is more of a GPP play as he could land a 0 very easily on any given week.

Tight End-

Two ways to play it this week in cash. Spend up on Eric Ebron in cash or go down to Vance McDonald as the Raiders have been horrendous against tight ends all season which we saw last week against the Chiefs.

In cash, I'm not going either Kelce or Ertz this week, but if I preferred one it would be Kelce as Baltimore's average against the tight end which means that it is their one spot where they are week as their defense is elite elsewhere.

3 comments:

  1. Thanks for the write-up, Devin! I agree with you on how you rank the value RBs, but I’ll personally be avoiding the them and just jamming in zeke, Barkley, and cmc. There’s enough WR value to do it this week and it’s hard for me to pass up on guaranteed volume in good matchups

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    Replies
    1. Can't blame you for trying to get all three in.

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