Friday, September 16, 2016

GPP Strategy- Building a Core

I have been asked multiple times how I build my GPP and strategies to win in GPP's. Let me clarify one thing up front. Most weeks you are going to lose when you are playing GPP.

First of all the strategy that you implore has to be a strategy that you are comfortable with. There are plenty of successful people in the DFS community who only play GPP's and do not play any cash games. I am not one of those people, as I like to fund my GPP's through my cash game play. I play a majority cash games and sprinkle in some GPP's for that upside that the GPP's can provide.

Why play GPP's?
GPP's are great for the big score. They are not great for consistent bankroll building as the payouts are very top heavy. One GPP win, could pay for your entire season, and the problem with NFL compared to other sports is that there are only 17 weeks, so the odds are less that you will place highly in a GPP compared to MLB or NBA as there are more opportunities to do so. GPP's are also great if you are a small dollar player who is ok with losing their investment for the potential upside. If you are a player who wants to play $10 a week and is ok losing the $10, you can enter a cash game where the most that you can win is double your investment, or a GPP where you can win thousands of dollars on a $10 investment.

Risks of playing a GPP?
GPP's are highly variable in nature, as there are a lower percentage of the field is paid out. This can also lead to consistent losing weeks which can be tough on a persons bankroll. It is recommended that you only invest less than 5% of your total bankroll each week in GPP's, to minimize this variance.

How I build GPP lineups?
My GPP exposure is a boom/bust strategy compared to some people. My strategy is built off the premise that if I can use a core of guys and then fill in the gaps with other players that if that core does very well than as a whole I should do well in at least some of the lineups. When I first started playing GPP's, what I realized is that I was trying to have one of every player that I liked and my result would be that I would have one share of the top quarterback, one share of the top running back, one share of the top wide receiver, but they were never on the same team thus all of the lineups would be losing lineups.

With the building the core strategy, what does is it typically will take 3-5 players and put them on every single one of my GPP lineups that I am making for that week. Then I will fill in the rest of the lineups with a variety of players who I like, but do not want 100% exposure to. These maybe players with high variance, players such as Travis Benjamin this week who may have a huge week or may do very little.

How many lineups do I build? That really depends on a given week, some weeks it is 10, some it is 25 and there really isn't an exact number that I can tell you how to do it. If I feel strongly in my core, and like a bunch of other players to pair with my core, I will likely build closer to 25, if I don't love my core and don't have a great feeling about the other players I am putting in my lineups I may end up with 10. There isn't a set number that says you have to build this many lineups, build what you are comfortable with.

This week's core
Antonio Brown
Gary Barnidge
Matt Bryant
Seattle Defense

This week is special as typically I will never put a kicker or a defense in my core. However, I view both of these plays as my top plays of the day by a wide margin, as Oakland allowed the most field goals in 2015, and Atlanta had one of the worst red zone offenses in the NFL in 2015. This lines up perfectly for a big field goal performance from Bryant. Seattles defense is going up against Case Keenum's offense which couldn't do anything against San Francisco. This is a prime position where just start the stud defense and hope they pan out.

Do I have to put my cash game lineup in a GPP?
I am going to say no on this one. Can you put it in a GPP, sure there is nothing preventing you from doing that, but the cash game building strategy compared to the GPP is so vastly different that I don't feel that I typically have an advantage putting a cash game lineup in the GPP. For example, if you started Dak Prescott last week in cash games (which I did not advise), there is no reason you should have entered that into a GPP, as Dak doesn't have the upside that you are looking for to win or place highly in a GPP. Combining that with the fact that he was over-owned should tell you that that lineup is not a great upside lineup. Starting volume running backs is generally ok in cash games, but starting a player such as T.J. Yeldon is not typically advised in GPP as they aren't going to produce consistently enough to pay off.

7 comments:

  1. I found your article really intersting. In GPP's do you play only one core across all your entries, or do you sometimes have several different cores that you play? Thanks

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    1. I use one core, although depending on how many lineups you build you could build two or even three cores

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    2. Thanks Devin, keep posting your ideas. I feel I try to hedge too many of my lineups by playing too many different players instead of sticking to a handful of core players. Because of this, I end up with too many dead lineups, and don't capitalize enough when my core players actually do well

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    3. FWIW, I generally split my LUs between 2 QBs and usually the price difference requires a couple of other swaps.

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  2. The last part is the only thing i have any issue with. I missed out on a couple thousand dollars by not entering my cash LU into the big $1 GPP. Granted it was only once, but I'll never let that happen again.

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    1. I hear you Tony and completely get that perspective. I typically assess each of my cash games lineups to determine if it has GPP upside

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  3. When I first started playing GPP's, what I realized is that I was trying to have one of every player that I liked and my result would be that I would have one share of the top quarterback, one share of the top running back, one share of the top wide receiver, but they were never on the same team thus all of the lineups would be losing lineups.


    Devin, your comments sum up my dilemma. This has been a difficult mindset to break.

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