Friday, September 23, 2016

Week 3 Preview- Evaluating the Running Back Position

This week there are a ton of running backs who are starting due to injury, so let's break down some of the teams that changed running backs and the top cash/GPP plays this week.

Minnesota- Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon
Haven't we seen this show before multiple times and it always ends up about the same? McKinnon seems like the more talented running back and can move the ball between the 20's but then they will take him out inside the red zone for Matt Asiata. This really limits McKinnon's upside, and makes Asiata extremely volatile as you are banking on a touchdown.
Recommendation- Sit both this week, they're in a tough matchup on the road against Carolina, let's see if McKinnon takes on a bigger role than what we have seen in the past.

Detroit- Theo Riddick and Dwayne Washington
The injury to Ameer Abdullah hurts the Lions in a lot of ways as being able to move the ball and keep two running backs fresh. Now that he is out, most of the work will be going to Theo Riddick, which is great news for him as we have seen that he can be the number one guy. Dwayne Washington is an intriguing rookie, but until we see more from him you can't start him in DFS formats.

Recommendation- Play Riddick in a GPP only. Green Bay currently has the top rush defense, and while it is a small sample size they are only allowing 1.6 yards per carry and shut down Adrian Peterson prior to his injury. This is not a situation that you need to attack, but Riddick poses enough upside in GPP's with his pass catching ability.

San Diego- Melvin Gordon
The injury to Danny Woodhead may hurt the Chargers more than any on this list, as they have now lost two of their top receiving options with the injury to Keenan Allen the week prior. Do not let last year's bias get in the way when you are evaluating Melvin Gordon, he is a completely different running back from last season where he was unplayable in most fantasy formats. Now that Woodhead is out, Gordon is going to be forced to catch the ball out of the backfield which is only going to increase his workload this week.

Recommendation- Melvin Gordon is a great cash and GPP play this week. He will be highly owned, but faces a Colts defense that is one of the worst in the league as they are allowing 125 yards per game.

Cash Plays- I am spending up in cash games this week, as I think there is enough value at other positions that we can spend some of the money on top end running backs.

Deangelo Williams- I am not sure if I will be able to make Elliott and Williams fit in the same lineup, but if I am able to this becomes the lineup that I want to have. Williams usage rate in this offense has been the highest of any running back so far this year, and while statistically, the Eagles defense has been good against the run, do not look into this too much as they have faced the Browns and the Bears. Williams is getting 30+ touches in each week so far this season which makes him an ideal cash game play.

Ezekiel Elliott- The Chicago Bears defense is decimated with injuries and they are in the bottom third of the league in rushing yards allowed. They had five defensive players injured Monday night, and most of them do not look promising to play including Lamarr Houston, Danny Trevathan, Eddie Goldman, Adrian Amos, and Bryce Callahan. This is a great spot for Elliott to have a breakout game this week.

Melvin Gordon- As already mentioned, he is in a great spot against a Colts defense that is horrible against the run, the injury to Danny Woodhead only helps Gordon's value.


GPP
Ezekiel Elliott- Will be in my GPP core this week.
David Johnson
Spencer Ware
Mark Ingram
Theo Riddick
Demarco Murray


6 comments:

  1. Any worries about Zeke's fumbles last week leading to more Alf this week (and going forward)?

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  2. Not even a little bit worried this team invested the #4 overall pick in elliott he is their guy

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  3. That was my thought process as well,but haven't heard a lot of talk about him this week so was afraid I was missing something.

    I looked at the FBG ranks this morning and was surprised to see Zeke's so low for you (10). I get that points per $ can be misleading with cheap guys, but you had a more expensive DJ ranked 2 and an (almost) equally priced Forte ranked 6. Am I missing something on how you guys put those ranks together?

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    1. My bad, CJA is the one that was similar price to Zeke and ranked higher at 8

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  4. Hey Tony-

    This has to do with when the rankings were submitted. I submitted them Monday as I was traveling without internet connection on Tuesday/Wednesday. Kind of a one off thing so I had to submit them early this week.

    The injuries to the Bears defense changes the rankings pretty significantly, and now that we know more details about their defensive injuries Elliott jumps up the rankings pretty significantly.

    Sorry for the disconnect it was the one week during the football season the real job had to take priority and submit the rankings early normally i submit at the last possible second to avoid disconnects like this

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    1. Thanks. That all makes total sense now. The rankings come out late in the week, so didn't even think about you guys submitting earlier.

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