Cash game Selection
For those that have been following along with the blog so far this year, you'll know that I mostly join head to head contests as my choice of contests for cash games. I have explained it a little bit in a few different posts but have not dedicated an entire post to it yet this season. The primary reason that I join head to head contests is to mitigate the risk caused by 50/50's and double ups. In 50/50's and double ups no matter how many you join it is an all or nothing strategy each week.
There is nothing worse than finishing in the 49th percentile of lineups in a 50/50 or Double Up and losing almost all of your money invested in a given week. Having this happen a few weeks in a row back in 2014, where I just missed the cut line in my 50/50's, I decided to make a change in the way that I am playing. I am able to get more of my bankroll in play each week if I join a high number of H2H games as the overall risk to my bankroll is lower since it is not an all or nothing strategy. Ultimately the downside of the decreased risk is the decreased upside, if I have a lineup that is in the 80th percentile, I am not going to win all of my contests, I am likely only going to win 80% of my contests, where a 50/50 I would win all of my contests. Ultimately, I am ok with the decreased upside for the decreased risk, as the goal is to grow the bankroll and not let a few bad weeks kill your season.
When selecting games, do you just a certain percentage each night, wait until the end of the week or put it all in play right away?
ReplyDeleteSince you're scooping, how do you keep track of whose games you've already picked up?
Have you found a significant difference in your win rate between $1,$2 and $5 (or more if you're playing higher than that)?
I normally do a few each night. I have an excel spreadsheet with all the names of people that I've already joined to avoid duplicates.
ReplyDeleteI don't play the $1,$2 levels, so I can't comment on those but there is very little difference between the $5 and $10 levels. I have played all the way up to $1k head to heads and do play those on another site, but for the purpose of this blog I'm staying between $5 and $10, although I may do a few big head to heads for fun later in the year.
Thanks for that info.
ReplyDeleteJust for fun, I scrolled through the $2 H2H and saw no less than 11 touts with games posted. Interesting that you don't play there and I've never seen Dodds in there either. I commend you guys on that, but at the same time wonder if you're missing out on income that your "peers" seem to have no issue taking.
Yeah I am very against touts taking the $1 and $2 games and then also playing me in $100-$1k+ games on other sites.
DeleteDavid and I talk several times a week, and we are both in alignment that if we leave money by not taking $1 and $2 games then so be it, but in my opinion it is bad for the industry for people who have several thousand dollars in play per week to be taking $1 and $2 games. Across all different sites I probably have close to $5k out there per week, and just can't morally justify going against someone who plays 1 $1 game for fun.
I couldn't agree more. These same guys are the ones who get upset and wonder why news outlets post stories about their predatory practices and call it a rigged system. Sucks. I like DFS and want it to stay around (and legal) forever, but this is a bad look. I get that the sites need to keep growing profits and in order to do that, they need the entry fees from these guys so don't want to piss them off and limit their action to certain buy in levels. But man alive, wish they'd figure something out.
DeleteOh well, sorry to drag you off topic. Keep doing what you do. Love FBG. Good luck this season.
So is there a break even point on the number of H2H contests you need to enter to make those a better play to grow your bankroll? As someone who plays ~7-10 Double Ups and 50/50 a week, it seems like I have a lot less variance than playing 7-10 H2H contests.
ReplyDeleteStatistically, you need a sample size greater > 30 before you can see a normal distribution of results.
DeleteHey Rich-
DeleteCompletely agree with you here. If you're playing 7-10 contests per week, I would stick with the 50/50's and avoid H2H as the variance in the H2H contests is too great. What I have found is that the break even is somewhere around 30 head to heads to make it worth it.
Devin I would love to hear your thoughts on the 5,10,20,40,100 man leagues. I have been mixing in these with my cash games this year and have been surprised at how even a cash LU can do well in the bigger ones. Last week I only had 1 of my 3 cash LU do well, but the best LU also did well and these and helped me see a profit for the week, despite the poor showing of the other 2.
ReplyDeleteThis is a good concept and teh point is that your expected return is the same , just with less variance - usually a great thing.
ReplyDeleteQuestion Devin, do you think your average competition is the same in H2H vs large fields, and do you try to play opponents who are not playing a lot of contests at that particular level?
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