Heading Down the Final Stretch- Dominating the Last Few Weeks

We have to remember that these players are human and not just numbers on a page or a stat line read off in a projection. Projection models are great, but they use a baseline trend and then adjust for the matchup, what most of them do not do is they do not take into the external factors of the game. Whether it is players not wanting to get injured, coaches worried about their future, or just the overall lack of morale in the locker room, you want to start players who still care and play 100% to their abilities.

Towards the end of the season, this is a great time to incorporate human psychology into your lineups. Evaluate which teams are still going to care at this point, and then look at the track record of that team when they are in situations similar to the one that they are currently in. I typically avoid players who had success last season and are now in a situation where they have nothing to play for.

We typically avoid teams like Cleveland, Chicago, Los Angeles on this list, as they are all very young teams and their veterans have not been starting for several weeks. These players are still fighting for a job next year, so they see less of a drop off compared to established veterans.

Players/Situations to monitor and or avoid. This list will be changing week to week, but here is where we are currently at.
Avoid Carolina- Last year's Super Bowl runner-ups have nothing to play for in this season and Cam Newton has not had the same fire this year as in year's past. With the team still having four games left this could get ugly.

Monitor Arizona- If Arizona loses another game this season they are effectively out of the playoff hunt. This is an aging team that relies heavily on their veteran players and the excessive workload of David Johnson. If they are eliminated, Johnson's workload will likely decrease and you could see the team work more younger players in the mix looking forward to 2017.

Monitor Green Bay- Green Bay is still in the playoff mix, but with another loss or two they would be eliminated. If they are eliminated, Rodgers has been dealing with a hamstring injury all season, and Jordy Nelson is still returning from his ACL injury in 2015. This is likely a situation where if they are eliminated they start looking towards 2017.