I am Devin Knotts, 2018 will be my 8th season playing NFL DFS. I have made five live finals by playing DFS. Join me on my journey as I start with $10,000 in bankroll and show you how I manage it, give you advice for the week, and go over lessons learned for the week.
Email: knotts@footballguys.com
With my roots in the '80s when we used to draft by lists at the local pub but now just a minnow in a sea of DFS Sharks(Yikes!)...Is it then 50-50s rather than head-2-heads to better succeed in growing bankroll over a season(less variance)?
Hey Hawkwind, I think I wrote a blog at some point last year which explained this exact thing. Ultimately, it depends on how many head to heads you would have to play each week to get a big enough sample. The problem with 50/50's is that if you play multiple 50/50's they are most likely a win all of them or lose all of them type of game, which is great if it is one or two, but I would not recommend someone playing 15 50/50's.
Hi Devin, I'm curious to hear your thoughts on how late swap might affect your H2H strategy, if at all. Are you worried that you play a large volume of games and that people could use late swap in situations where they could late swap in an attempt to pick a different player than you if they are down a few points? For example, if you are ahead 2 points going into MNF with Antonio Brown to play, and your opponent also has Brown, he would be smart to swap to Martavis or another WR in an attempt to differentiate from you. Or is it possible that you are considering doing this to gain an advantage? It seems like a huge chore to keep track of the Sunday and Monday night games (depending on slate) if you play a large volume of games.
Hey PHL, I'll write this up in a blog this week. I've used it for years. Long story short, if you're up don't change anything. If you're losing you have the right idea that changing could lead to an advantage.
Looking forward to it
ReplyDeleteYes! Can't wait for the start of the season and to be profitable again
ReplyDeleteWith my roots in the '80s when we used to draft by lists at the local pub but now just a minnow in a sea of DFS Sharks(Yikes!)...Is it then 50-50s rather than head-2-heads to better succeed in growing bankroll over a season(less variance)?
ReplyDeleteHey Hawkwind, I think I wrote a blog at some point last year which explained this exact thing. Ultimately, it depends on how many head to heads you would have to play each week to get a big enough sample. The problem with 50/50's is that if you play multiple 50/50's they are most likely a win all of them or lose all of them type of game, which is great if it is one or two, but I would not recommend someone playing 15 50/50's.
ReplyDeleteHi Devin, I'm curious to hear your thoughts on how late swap might affect your H2H strategy, if at all. Are you worried that you play a large volume of games and that people could use late swap in situations where they could late swap in an attempt to pick a different player than you if they are down a few points? For example, if you are ahead 2 points going into MNF with Antonio Brown to play, and your opponent also has Brown, he would be smart to swap to Martavis or another WR in an attempt to differentiate from you. Or is it possible that you are considering doing this to gain an advantage? It seems like a huge chore to keep track of the Sunday and Monday night games (depending on slate) if you play a large volume of games.
ReplyDeleteHey PHL, I'll write this up in a blog this week. I've used it for years. Long story short, if you're up don't change anything. If you're losing you have the right idea that changing could lead to an advantage.
ReplyDelete