Friday, November 11, 2016

Mid-Term Grade and How to Apply This to Week 10

So far this season has been up and down. Currently, my bankroll is at $11,400 largely due to huge weeks during weeks 1,2,7,9. It seems like when I have been good I have been great, when I have missed, I have not gotten killed which is the end goal.

So how do I evaluate my performance so far this season? I give myself a C+ so far this year. A 11.4% return on my total bankroll is not bad but it certainly can be better. I haven't hit on any GPP's this season which while I am not a big GPP player compared to most, I still should be doing better on the GPP side of things.

Here are my initial notes to myself. I start to solidify my process on Saturday, but just like to take a quick pass at the slate and see what stands out to me.

QB-
Some key trends heading into this week. Aaron Rodgers has been terrific and is throwing the ball at a higher rate than he ever has before. He is expensive, but is the top option for me this week. Heading down the list, I am having a really difficult time finding a quarterback that I am falling in love with. As much as I like Marcus Mariota he has not been running as much as he did earlier in the season and is dealing with a sprained ankle. Roethlisberger is intriguing, but is he 100% healthy? Brady at home on Sunday night is a great play, but facing Seattle is a little bit scary.

RB-
Start David Johnson this week do not over think it. He is the Ezekiel Elliott of last week and is one of the top plays of the week. Melvin Gordon has been a monster, and is in a decent spot at home against Miami. LeVeon Bell is extremely consistent. Seems like a spend up week at running back.

WR-
Wide receiver is the most difficult decision of the day for me. Yes, I like Evans, but he is too expensive for me as he is only $100 less than Antonio Brown. Jordan Matthews at $5,900 is intriguing, J.J. Nelson is intriguing at $5,600 but how much are they going to throw the ball or need to throw the ball? Chris Conley is getting a lot of hype, but I can't buy into it. Bears wide receivers, Jeffrey or Meredith? Have to go cheap at one of the wide receivers in order to spend up elsewhere.

TE-
Loving Zach Miller this week with the return of Jay Cutler we saw Miller/Cutler connect against a good Minnesota team. Antonio Gates is also interesting if Hunter Henry sits out.

Defense-
Love Jacksonville's price, as they have been playing much better so far this year.

Kicker-
Catanzaro will be popular, but he will be kicking a lot of PAT's not field goals. Liking Sturgis, Bryant, and Lambo this week in that order.

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