Sunday, December 10, 2017
Week 14 Lineup
This lineup is pending Zach Ertz being inactive which I believe is almost a certainty at this point.
Friday, December 8, 2017
Heading into Week 14
Heading down the backstretch. Coming off of back to back losing weeks and three out of the last four have been down weeks. It is time to turn things around.
After losing about 20% of my investment, I am down to $10,922. We need a good week this week.
Slate Breakdown:
With two of the best games not on this slate, this week is a little bit tough to build a roster.
Quarterback-
Do we trust Alex Smith? Not 100% sure I do, even though he is likely going to be the most popular guy on this slate this week. It's a great matchup against an awful Oakland secondary that Smith absolutely torched last time out. At that price, I'll probably just take Smith that way if he does go off I am not behind the curve.
Other quarterbacks that I like-
Jameis Winston
DeShone Kizer (Weather dependent)
Running Back:
I might be just paying down for running back after paying up the past few weeks and it not working out.
Giovani Bernard at just $5,100 is in a tremendous spot this week assuming Joe Mixon is out as at $5,100 he does not need much to hit value.
Lamar Miller is also in a tremendous spot this week against the 49ers. The 49ers have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to opponents on the season and this week
Todd Gurley continues to be the running back with some of the highest yardage upside, but he has only scored one touchdown in the last four weeks and is going up against one of the best run defenses in football.
LeSean McCoy- McCoy is a player who in theory should be in a great spot as the Colts have allowed the fourth most points to opposing running backs but they are playing better as over their last four games they have only allowed the 20th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. The Colts did lose John Simon, which means that Barkevious Mingo will likely be forced to see snaps which is not a good thing for the Colts. McCoy has his up and down games and at $9,000 may be a bit too high but should be in consideration.
Wide Receiver-
Keenan Allen
Wide receiver starts and ends with Keenan Allen who is on an absolute tear as of late as he has four touchdowns over his last three games and has gone for over 100 yards in each of those games. It seems the Chargers emergence is relying on Allen more than they ever have this season.
Marqise Goodwin-
If you have the ability to go and watch last week's game against the Bears go and watch Marqise Goodwin. He was all over the field and was playing a different role than what we are used to where he is traditionally just thought of as a deep threat. Goodwin had eight targets catching all eight of them and is in a tremendous matchup going up against a Houston secondary that is not very good and not very fast.
Larry Fitzgerald-
Fitzgerald is just reliable, there is not much more to say about it. Excluding a horrible matchup against Jacksonville, Fitzgerald has 9 receptions or more and 90 yards or more in his last three games. He is still priced too low for that type of consistency.
Other Wide Receivers I like
DeAndre Hopkins
Michael Crabtree
Davante Adams
Tight End-
At the moment, I am just paying up for Travis Kelce. It is risky, especially since Stephen Anderson will be very popular, but with Will Fuller coming back, I do not believe that Anderson will continue the same deep threat role that he had last week. Teams will also game plan accordingly for the tight end.
After losing about 20% of my investment, I am down to $10,922. We need a good week this week.
Slate Breakdown:
With two of the best games not on this slate, this week is a little bit tough to build a roster.
Quarterback-
Do we trust Alex Smith? Not 100% sure I do, even though he is likely going to be the most popular guy on this slate this week. It's a great matchup against an awful Oakland secondary that Smith absolutely torched last time out. At that price, I'll probably just take Smith that way if he does go off I am not behind the curve.
Other quarterbacks that I like-
Jameis Winston
DeShone Kizer (Weather dependent)
Running Back:
I might be just paying down for running back after paying up the past few weeks and it not working out.
Giovani Bernard at just $5,100 is in a tremendous spot this week assuming Joe Mixon is out as at $5,100 he does not need much to hit value.
Lamar Miller is also in a tremendous spot this week against the 49ers. The 49ers have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to opponents on the season and this week
Todd Gurley continues to be the running back with some of the highest yardage upside, but he has only scored one touchdown in the last four weeks and is going up against one of the best run defenses in football.
LeSean McCoy- McCoy is a player who in theory should be in a great spot as the Colts have allowed the fourth most points to opposing running backs but they are playing better as over their last four games they have only allowed the 20th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. The Colts did lose John Simon, which means that Barkevious Mingo will likely be forced to see snaps which is not a good thing for the Colts. McCoy has his up and down games and at $9,000 may be a bit too high but should be in consideration.
Wide Receiver-
Keenan Allen
Wide receiver starts and ends with Keenan Allen who is on an absolute tear as of late as he has four touchdowns over his last three games and has gone for over 100 yards in each of those games. It seems the Chargers emergence is relying on Allen more than they ever have this season.
Marqise Goodwin-
If you have the ability to go and watch last week's game against the Bears go and watch Marqise Goodwin. He was all over the field and was playing a different role than what we are used to where he is traditionally just thought of as a deep threat. Goodwin had eight targets catching all eight of them and is in a tremendous matchup going up against a Houston secondary that is not very good and not very fast.
Larry Fitzgerald-
Fitzgerald is just reliable, there is not much more to say about it. Excluding a horrible matchup against Jacksonville, Fitzgerald has 9 receptions or more and 90 yards or more in his last three games. He is still priced too low for that type of consistency.
Other Wide Receivers I like
DeAndre Hopkins
Michael Crabtree
Davante Adams
Tight End-
At the moment, I am just paying up for Travis Kelce. It is risky, especially since Stephen Anderson will be very popular, but with Will Fuller coming back, I do not believe that Anderson will continue the same deep threat role that he had last week. Teams will also game plan accordingly for the tight end.
Sunday, December 3, 2017
Going to need to get lucky
What a disappointing day, Travis Kelce starts the day off strong, but the rest of the team did not do enough to save the day.
Going to need Wilson/Wentz to both be horrible
Quarterback-
Brett Hundley- 13-22 for just 84 yards against this atrocious Tampa Bay secondary. In hindsight, this one had recency bias written all over it. I liked what I saw from Hundley on Sunday night against the Steelers. Hundley did have 60 rushing yards, but it wasn't enough from him this week.
Running Back-
The key to success this week was to take any one of the four cheap running backs this week in Alex Collins, Kenyan Drake, Jamaal Williams or Marshawn Lynch. In hindsight, I was on Williams, I just thought Jones' role would be larger than it actually was. I really liked Lynch and talked about him on the Power Grid, I just felt Howard was safer which was obviously incorrect.
Todd Gurley- Gurley was fine with 79 rushing yards and 84 receiving yards for a total of 19.3 points, but he only has one touchdown in his last four weeks.
Jordan Howard- Howard was in an ideal matchup going up against the 49ers who had allowed the third most rushing yards this season. Amazingly the Bears had just 34 offensive plays, which I have gone back and looked and I can't find a situation where a team had this few of plays.
I went back and looked to try to see if there were any indicators that this game would be played at this slow of a pace, and San Francisco is actually the fastest team in the NFL when it comes to pace.
What could I have done differently?
There was no way I was going to start Jamaal Williams, but I should have gone with Marshawn Lynch or dug deeper into Kenyan Drake with no Damien Williams.
Wide Receiver
A lot of debate this week over Brandin Cooks vs Mike Evans. In reality neither was the right call. I ended up going with Evans, but Keenan Allen was the guy at the top that you needed.
Davante Adams- Adams was the top target in Green Bay, but was hindered by Hundley's lack of success.
Cooper Kupp- Kupp was fine at 5/68, would have liked to see a touchdown, but can't complain about
Mike Evans- 2/33 for your highest paid receiver just is not going to cut it. Six targets matched his season-low and the only other game was a bad matchup against Marshon Lattimore. I would play Evans again every single time as this was an ideal matchup this week against the Packers.
Tight End-
Travis Kelce- Best player on the team, can't complain although he did only have one catch after the two long touchdowns which while it was a good game could have been great.
Kicker-
Josh Lambo- 10 points from a kicker is something I will take every day. Something to keep an eye on here is that the Jaguars went for two on their first two touchdowns.
Defense-
Chargers- Chargers were solid with three sacks, an interception and a fumble.
Going to need Wilson/Wentz to both be horrible
Quarterback-
Brett Hundley- 13-22 for just 84 yards against this atrocious Tampa Bay secondary. In hindsight, this one had recency bias written all over it. I liked what I saw from Hundley on Sunday night against the Steelers. Hundley did have 60 rushing yards, but it wasn't enough from him this week.
Running Back-
The key to success this week was to take any one of the four cheap running backs this week in Alex Collins, Kenyan Drake, Jamaal Williams or Marshawn Lynch. In hindsight, I was on Williams, I just thought Jones' role would be larger than it actually was. I really liked Lynch and talked about him on the Power Grid, I just felt Howard was safer which was obviously incorrect.
Todd Gurley- Gurley was fine with 79 rushing yards and 84 receiving yards for a total of 19.3 points, but he only has one touchdown in his last four weeks.
Jordan Howard- Howard was in an ideal matchup going up against the 49ers who had allowed the third most rushing yards this season. Amazingly the Bears had just 34 offensive plays, which I have gone back and looked and I can't find a situation where a team had this few of plays.
I went back and looked to try to see if there were any indicators that this game would be played at this slow of a pace, and San Francisco is actually the fastest team in the NFL when it comes to pace.
What could I have done differently?
There was no way I was going to start Jamaal Williams, but I should have gone with Marshawn Lynch or dug deeper into Kenyan Drake with no Damien Williams.
Wide Receiver
A lot of debate this week over Brandin Cooks vs Mike Evans. In reality neither was the right call. I ended up going with Evans, but Keenan Allen was the guy at the top that you needed.
Davante Adams- Adams was the top target in Green Bay, but was hindered by Hundley's lack of success.
Cooper Kupp- Kupp was fine at 5/68, would have liked to see a touchdown, but can't complain about
Mike Evans- 2/33 for your highest paid receiver just is not going to cut it. Six targets matched his season-low and the only other game was a bad matchup against Marshon Lattimore. I would play Evans again every single time as this was an ideal matchup this week against the Packers.
Tight End-
Travis Kelce- Best player on the team, can't complain although he did only have one catch after the two long touchdowns which while it was a good game could have been great.
Kicker-
Josh Lambo- 10 points from a kicker is something I will take every day. Something to keep an eye on here is that the Jaguars went for two on their first two touchdowns.
Defense-
Chargers- Chargers were solid with three sacks, an interception and a fumble.
Last Update
Saturday, December 2, 2017
Week 13 Cash Lineup
This week we actually have some Sunday morning injuries we need to keep an eye on.
The first is Aaron Jones. If Jones is active, I am off of Jamaal Williams completely. If Jones is out, I like Williams quite a bit.
The second is Alex Collins, I like Collins if he is active this week, but if he were to scratch Buck Allen becomes a nice play.
The third is Nick Novak who heading into this game was my favorite kicker. The team has activated Patrick Coon, so it is unlikely Novak will be playing this week.
As of now, below is my lineup, this will likely change between now and lock based on any injury situations that may come up.
The first is Aaron Jones. If Jones is active, I am off of Jamaal Williams completely. If Jones is out, I like Williams quite a bit.
The second is Alex Collins, I like Collins if he is active this week, but if he were to scratch Buck Allen becomes a nice play.
The third is Nick Novak who heading into this game was my favorite kicker. The team has activated Patrick Coon, so it is unlikely Novak will be playing this week.
As of now, below is my lineup, this will likely change between now and lock based on any injury situations that may come up.
Friday, December 1, 2017
Is there an Edge?
Have seen a lot of comments back and forth on the upside and downside of 50/50's vs h2h contests, and ultimately whether there is an edge in this game anymore.
Going to have a two-part series the first addressing some concerns from people about whether there still is an edge. The second piece will address H2H vs 50/50 contests.
Is there still an edge?
What I will say when people ask me is there an edge in fantasy football is yes I firmly believe there still is an edge, but it's not as big as what you think. Yes there is a lot of information out there, but there is also a lot of garbage information out there.
The biggest thing however, is that if it isn't fun and you're only doing it for the money, there are other things that you could be doing that probably will be more profitable. I have long said that the moment that this stops being fun that I will stop doing it.
Addressing Variance
Someone on Twitter sent me a DM saying, I won 200% of my bankroll in 2015 and am only up 20% this year. I also got one that said I have been up about 50% for the last three years and am down about 40% this season so the edge is clearly gone.
From a statistical standpoint, this simply is not true. I have even seen some people go as far to say I have lost three weeks in a row so clearly, there is no longer an edge.
The NFL is 17 weeks long. If you're playing 50/50 contests, it is a majority of the time an all or nothing proposition. Therefore, the difference between a winning season and a losing season often can come down to one or two weeks.
60% is largely considered a good winning percentage in cash games. I ran a random win/loss simulation for 7 years worth of contests. Here are the results for 17 weeks.
What does this mean?
One year of results if you're a winning player should determine long-term success. There are going to be good streaks and some down streaks, I fully believe there is still an edge if you put in the work or trust someone with good information to do the research for you, but ultimately have fun and enjoy it. This should not be treated as a job.
Going to have a two-part series the first addressing some concerns from people about whether there still is an edge. The second piece will address H2H vs 50/50 contests.
Is there still an edge?
What I will say when people ask me is there an edge in fantasy football is yes I firmly believe there still is an edge, but it's not as big as what you think. Yes there is a lot of information out there, but there is also a lot of garbage information out there.
The biggest thing however, is that if it isn't fun and you're only doing it for the money, there are other things that you could be doing that probably will be more profitable. I have long said that the moment that this stops being fun that I will stop doing it.
Addressing Variance
Someone on Twitter sent me a DM saying, I won 200% of my bankroll in 2015 and am only up 20% this year. I also got one that said I have been up about 50% for the last three years and am down about 40% this season so the edge is clearly gone.
From a statistical standpoint, this simply is not true. I have even seen some people go as far to say I have lost three weeks in a row so clearly, there is no longer an edge.
The NFL is 17 weeks long. If you're playing 50/50 contests, it is a majority of the time an all or nothing proposition. Therefore, the difference between a winning season and a losing season often can come down to one or two weeks.
60% is largely considered a good winning percentage in cash games. I ran a random win/loss simulation for 7 years worth of contests. Here are the results for 17 weeks.
What does this mean?
One year of results if you're a winning player should determine long-term success. There are going to be good streaks and some down streaks, I fully believe there is still an edge if you put in the work or trust someone with good information to do the research for you, but ultimately have fun and enjoy it. This should not be treated as a job.
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