Going to have a two-part series the first addressing some concerns from people about whether there still is an edge. The second piece will address H2H vs 50/50 contests.
Is there still an edge?
What I will say when people ask me is there an edge in fantasy football is yes I firmly believe there still is an edge, but it's not as big as what you think. Yes there is a lot of information out there, but there is also a lot of garbage information out there.
The biggest thing however, is that if it isn't fun and you're only doing it for the money, there are other things that you could be doing that probably will be more profitable. I have long said that the moment that this stops being fun that I will stop doing it.
Addressing Variance
Someone on Twitter sent me a DM saying, I won 200% of my bankroll in 2015 and am only up 20% this year. I also got one that said I have been up about 50% for the last three years and am down about 40% this season so the edge is clearly gone.
From a statistical standpoint, this simply is not true. I have even seen some people go as far to say I have lost three weeks in a row so clearly, there is no longer an edge.
The NFL is 17 weeks long. If you're playing 50/50 contests, it is a majority of the time an all or nothing proposition. Therefore, the difference between a winning season and a losing season often can come down to one or two weeks.
60% is largely considered a good winning percentage in cash games. I ran a random win/loss simulation for 7 years worth of contests. Here are the results for 17 weeks.
What does this mean?
One year of results if you're a winning player should determine long-term success. There are going to be good streaks and some down streaks, I fully believe there is still an edge if you put in the work or trust someone with good information to do the research for you, but ultimately have fun and enjoy it. This should not be treated as a job.
I am trying all H2H this week...trying to get in 100 contests between $1 and $2 games. I have been checking multiple times all week and have only found 5 match-ups with non-experienced players. I did find 9 with MLB of NBA related names so I joined those as well. Is it easier to get some if I list my own contests? I know you should only list single contests so the same person doesn't buy up all the spots. I will keep a log of who I beat and who crushes me and adjust for next week. I can see the late-swap possibly coming in hand more in H2H, mostly for blocking if I am ahead early. Thoughts? Can you share how you pick your opponents? I understand if you want to keep it secret, but I am having trouble finding 100 opponents that don't have dozens of contests and that seem like sharks.
ReplyDeleteAlso....it is still fun for me...I love the anticipation and the podcasts the week leading up, I just get frustrated when I get over 120 and don't cash, or when a majority of the field rosters players that just don't make sense to me after my research and they hit. I just think we have all been spoiled the past 5 years.....Yahoo! ws basically like printing money as not a lot of players played and they were mostly casual that clicked on the link on the top of thier season long. I stopped playing this year due to the pricing and cashing rosters seeming "random" and making no sense.
DeleteAnd one final thing.....
Delete"60% is largely considered a good winning percentage in cash games. I ran a random win/loss simulation for 7 years worth of contests. Here are the results for 17 weeks."
This file/image is not working....I would love to see this.
Also another thought. Have you done any analytics on contests you join early in the week vs contests you join Sat/Sun?
Thanks for answering questing and helping out. Your finny as hell on the power grid!
Always wondered on the contests entered early vs late in the week. My assumptions is that sharks joins early and casual joins late, but I might be wrong
DeleteI haven't looked at Sat/Sun contests and entering early vs late, that might be something that I look at.
DeleteI think I fixed the picture, let me know if it is not showing up.
Adam Levitan said on a recent podcast that pro players have roughly 10-20% ROI long-term for cash game results. Use that as a benchmark. To double or triple your bankroll every season is just not a realistic expectation long-term.
ReplyDeleteI remember discussing H2H vs. 50/50 earlier this year with you. I was doing much better at the 50/50s then, but with how badly the last four weeks have been going, I'm replacing half of my 50/50s with H2H. Here's hoping! Thanks as always for your thoughts!
ReplyDeleteI'll join the party saying last year's info was pretty damn good. Started at $200 in week 5, ended around $5k in week 16.
ReplyDeleteEven more notable than the gain is the CONSISTENCY I had last year. I had exactly one week of net loss. That's an 11-1 record. That is not a fluke. The information was good week in and week out.
This year, using the same strategy, I have exactly 3 winning weeks. Out of 12. So I'm not saying one way or other about the "edge" being spoken of (I just think the website's info is bad this year), but I thought I'd chime in since Devin mentioned others opining the same sentiment.
It's nice to see a helpful post from you Corfish, so kudos. Same deal here with me. In 2014, I played small with a $100 bankroll and only cash games and grew it to $400. In 2015, I decided to go bigger with a $1000 bankroll and lost 2/3 of it. In 2016, I went back to small with a $100 bankroll and ran it up to $900 with mostly cash games and a few 3x and 5x. This year I started with $500 and have had to reload this week. Part of it was my fault because I haven't had the best bankroll management the last few weeks thinking I was due, only to keep losing. However, when I statistically evened it out, I've only won like 25% of the weeks as well. I'm a diehard FBG for 16 years, but the DFS projections week to week haven't been very good. Devin's lineups have been the most profitable, but not much else has worked (outside of that great week 4 when Dodds went all-in on Watson and Hopkins).
DeleteI don't mean to be critical and know I couldn't do better, I am just saying I think the projections are off a lot this year. I also wish the Cracking FanDuel article was a live, updated document. Once again I'm sitting here wondering what to do with Jamaal Williams because I've been burned every time I've used a Ravens RB or Kenyan Drake and who to replace Novak with (I guess Lambo). (And no, I don't just tail the lineups and call it a day, but I do play them mixed in with my own lineups)
ReplyDelete