What a disappointing day, Travis Kelce starts the day off strong, but the rest of the team did not do enough to save the day.
Going to need Wilson/Wentz to both be horrible
Quarterback-
Brett Hundley- 13-22 for just 84 yards against this atrocious Tampa Bay secondary. In hindsight, this one had recency bias written all over it. I liked what I saw from Hundley on Sunday night against the Steelers. Hundley did have 60 rushing yards, but it wasn't enough from him this week.
Running Back-
The key to success this week was to take any one of the four cheap running backs this week in Alex Collins, Kenyan Drake, Jamaal Williams or Marshawn Lynch. In hindsight, I was on Williams, I just thought Jones' role would be larger than it actually was. I really liked Lynch and talked about him on the Power Grid, I just felt Howard was safer which was obviously incorrect.
Todd Gurley- Gurley was fine with 79 rushing yards and 84 receiving yards for a total of 19.3 points, but he only has one touchdown in his last four weeks.
Jordan Howard- Howard was in an ideal matchup going up against the 49ers who had allowed the third most rushing yards this season. Amazingly the Bears had just 34 offensive plays, which I have gone back and looked and I can't find a situation where a team had this few of plays.
I went back and looked to try to see if there were any indicators that this game would be played at this slow of a pace, and San Francisco is actually the fastest team in the NFL when it comes to pace.
What could I have done differently?
There was no way I was going to start Jamaal Williams, but I should have gone with Marshawn Lynch or dug deeper into Kenyan Drake with no Damien Williams.
Wide Receiver
A lot of debate this week over Brandin Cooks vs Mike Evans. In reality neither was the right call. I ended up going with Evans, but Keenan Allen was the guy at the top that you needed.
Davante Adams- Adams was the top target in Green Bay, but was hindered by Hundley's lack of success.
Cooper Kupp- Kupp was fine at 5/68, would have liked to see a touchdown, but can't complain about
Mike Evans- 2/33 for your highest paid receiver just is not going to cut it. Six targets matched his season-low and the only other game was a bad matchup against Marshon Lattimore. I would play Evans again every single time as this was an ideal matchup this week against the Packers.
Tight End-
Travis Kelce- Best player on the team, can't complain although he did only have one catch after the two long touchdowns which while it was a good game could have been great.
Kicker-
Josh Lambo- 10 points from a kicker is something I will take every day. Something to keep an eye on here is that the Jaguars went for two on their first two touchdowns.
Defense-
Chargers- Chargers were solid with three sacks, an interception and a fumble.
I went with Wentz, Williams, Gurley, Cooks, Adams, DHop, Cook, Lambo, SD D...and didnt sniff cash. NFL DFS is getting tighter and tighter.
ReplyDeleteWhat were the 50/50 cash lines? I ended up down 19% at 101.06 going with all H2Hs. I should have joined a 50/50 just to see the line. I have a feeling I would have been close to loosing 100%
ReplyDeleteI finished 1st in a small (10 team 50/50) w/ 128.48. Cash line was 104.36. In a large quintuple up (5x) the cash line was 124.66
ReplyDeleteI usually only play 50/50s or double ups, but put about half into h2h's this week instead based on some of the conversations from last week. Ended up losing overall, but won many of my h2h's. and would have lost everything if I didn't. Appreciate the break down of the pros and cons of each.
ReplyDeleteI understand the Howard move. A lot of times this year, the cheap RB doesn't end up paying off. The locks are about 50/50 this year. lol
ReplyDeleteHundley (100)
RB:J.Williams and Gurley (100%). Had Kamara instead of Williams on 50%, but just didn't think he could continue his hot streak. Last second change and I was wrong of course.
WR:Adams, BCooks, and Keenon Allen (100) Keenon saved me.
TE:Kelce and Walker (50/50)
K:Lambo and Gost (50/50)
D:LAChargers (100)
+335. 50/50's and Multipliers. Had these line-ups based on info from footballguys, but prior to Dodd's line-up post on his blog (which is very similar). Church doesn't allow me to do much at the last second.
Hey Devin, just wanted to share some general findings with you since you do so much for all of us on a regular basis. I took all of the "Qualified" players (any player who has met H-Value requirements listed in Cracking Fanduel) according to values on the IVC charts, and ran some simple scripts for certain factors at each position. I looked at things like being favored, home/away, the OU, and Expected Team Points. These are all mentioned as being important, but so far this season, only a few are holding up. Those that stood out as significant include:
ReplyDeleteQBs: Being at home (2.2 fp better), O/U of 50+ (2.5 fp better), Exp Team Pts of 25+ (2.5 fp better).
RBs: O/U of 45+ (4.3 pts better!), Exp Team Pts of 23+ (2.7 pts better). Underdogs are outscoring favorites by about 1 fp, but I'm not putting much stock in that.
WRs: Being at Home (1.4 pts better). O/U and Exp Team Pts aren't giving any indications this year.
TEs: Exp Team Pts of 23.25+ (2.1 pts better). Underdogs are outscoring favorites by 2fp, while away TEs are outscoring home TEs by 1.3fp. Could be some relevance to those.
I didn't do any of these with my D/ST data since that seems to get more predictable as the season progresses, and I've never bothered tracking kickers. I also removed data points where players were injured mid-game.
Hopefully you find this interesting at the very least. For me, it seems applicable given there is enough data on the season now to draw some conclusions from what we've seen. It affirms what we know about QBs being predictable and WRs being volatile, but the results of RB and TE are a bit more interesting and could be products of teams leaning on "safety valve" type options when they are less confident they'll win.
Great fanduel took the Sunday night game off the main slate. Time to switch Yahoo or fantasy draft.
ReplyDeleteIt is only this week as they're having their live final this week which never includes the night game.
DeleteThanks so much for that info Devin. Crisis averted haha
DeleteHavnt watched any of the podcasts yet but thoughts on IND (4100) if TT scratches...
ReplyDelete