Current Bankroll: $11,348
Total invested this week is $1,900 (16.7%)
Couple of notes
- Matt Ryan is in a great spot this week he's playing much better of late. He's in a tremendous spot this week against Tampa Bay.
- With Devonta Freeman out, I want a share of both the passing and rushing matchups in Atlanta as Coleman should get all of the work. Julio Jones is going to be popular and if you follow this blog long enough you'll know that I like Julio, but I just can't do it after being burned time and time again by the lack of touchdowns. He's more of a DraftKings play for me this week.
- Going back to Antonio Brown after being burned two weeks ago. At this point, he's still by far the most consistent wide receiver.
- Le'Veon Bell is going to be popular this week, but the reality is that Gurley has been better this season and is in a better matchup as New Orleans has given up 100+ yards in three of their last five games to Aaron Jones, Jordan Howard, and Samaje Perine.
- Kenny Stills with Matt Moore seems like a no-brainer, but it is actually the one spot that might change between now and tomorrow morning. I'm still debating between Stills and Corey Davis if Rishard Matthews is out.
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DeleteI know your not a huge GPP guy but you do seem to be big into prospects in and out of college.
ReplyDeleteAm I crazy to play Dede at a high % in GPP?
This is a guy who is going to win tourneys when he ignites and I dont want to miss the 4900 30 point Dede game. This spot is pretty sweet.
Dede is going to have a breakout game at some point. When that is going to be, I have no idea, but it could be this week.
ReplyDeleteIm a little surprised your blnot higher on him. Hes a freak beast.
DeleteAre you nervous about fading K. Hunt? I am fading him as well, but concerned he could have a big game against Bills Defense... Thoughts on D. Walker at TE or Corey Davis with no R. Matthews. Who benefits more between those 2 guys?
ReplyDeleteNervous, yes, as at some point he'll get back to early season form. I like Walker a lot this week. I'm not as high on Davis as he just hasn't produced only 11 yards per catch, and only 16 catches this season. The talent is definitely there, I'm just a reactive type player instead of putting my money on trying to predict the breakout as more likely than not it doesn't come.
DeleteJulio Jones pass td from Mohammad Sanu is a crusher.
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DeleteJulio was due but not from Sanu. Salt in the wound
ReplyDeleteJust glad the Steelers are on this slate to drive down his ownership. Would have had Julio if Brown wasn't on it, went heavy on Julio on DraftKings.
DeleteLuckily for me I went all in on Julio this week. I have a feeling he will make me some money for keeping the faith... Fading all of the Chiefs players seems like the right move as well so far...
ReplyDeleteVery nice! Definitely working out for you.
Delete142 points...went from full loss of my bankroll and end of my year to about 20% profit on the day due to those final 2 AB catches. I was praying for OT but ill take it. Some of my $2 50/50s had cash lines over 150!!!... more than triple ups.....crazy week
ReplyDeleteWas it multi-entry 50/50's I've avoided those like the plague as their cash lines are almost higher than the min cash in GPP's. I think my lineup put up 128 or so, and I about broke even, wondering if I got lucky and faced a high % of Hunt and a low % of Julio.
DeleteI must be snakebitten then. I had this lineup in play for about $200 and won $6. The breakdown was 75% 50/50s and 25% Top 12, 5x, and 3x. All were $1 or $2 entries. I wonder what I did wrong. If you have any insight into your entry composition, I'd appreciate it. Thanks in advance! Overall, it's been an awful four weeks. I've watched my bankroll go from a 167% increase to a 61% decrease and likely having to reload.
DeleteHey Ike, this week is the exact reason I avoid 50/50's. The cash line in 50/50's was around 140-150 because if 40% had Julio Jones (or whatever the ownership was) you're basically fighting for that last 10%. If you look at where you finished in 50/50's I would guess it would be around the 40th percentile or so. Playing in h2h you would have beaten anyone who had hunt and did not have jones.
DeleteThe 50/50 cash lines are actually tracking higher than the median h2h cash line for what I'm tracking. If it's a multiple entry 50/50 you should avoid these like the plague.
And I should clarify, aside from this week and two weeks ago, playing your lineups has been profitable. Everything else I play has tanked.
ReplyDeleteDevin,
ReplyDeleteI am curious what $ amount and volume of head to heads you are entering and also whether you are posting for games or picking others already posted to enter. I have always avoided the H2H because the Cracking FanDuel book from the site implies that the H2H are harder competition than the 50/50 (low $ single entry 100 person contests). It seems to me like the cash lines in the $5 50/50's has been much tougher than years past and I am considering trying a H2H strategy going forward.
I typically play around $1,500/week and this is the first year in 5 I am down. I started the season with $5,000 and was down to my last $1,500 this week. I had a big week and now sit at $3,700, but am still down on the season and am reconsidering playing H2H instead of 150 - $5 (50/50 100 man contests) I have been typically playing. The $750 of my contests are typically a mix of the multipliers 2X, 3X, 5X, and 100 player contests...
The cash line on the ($2-10) 50/50's for me this week was anywhere from 138-148 on the 50/50's I entered which is an insanely high amount. A score of 128 like you had this past week would have lost everything and been in the mid 60's out of 100 in 50/50's this past week. The 2 teams I put together were 162.22 and 161.48, but I feel like I had an exceptional week...
Hey Douglas-
DeleteGetting a lot of these types of questions, I'm going to just post a blog post instead of replying in comments. Should be up later today, I have posted similar blogs in the past but will write a different one. In reality, I did lose a little bit this week, but you're right if I went with the 50/50 approach I would have lost 100% of my investment this week.
Unsolicited but if you started with 5k and you play 1.5k a week, you are playing 30% of your bankroll in the highest variance and lowest edge sport. That is not a long-term profitable way to play and something to think about before optimizing game selection.
DeleteMDS what would you say is lowest variance, highest edge sport?
DeleteGenerally the less resources the higher the edge, and the more samples the less variance. So sports like CFB/CBB (when they existed) and WNBA/CFL have the highest edge, and NBA would be lowest variance (minutes and fpts/minutes are pretty stable).
DeleteThis is all general advice, you as a player might be really tuned into NFL and have an edge -- but it's very hard when there is so much free, high quality info and tools.
Exactly how I feel......I seem to have 0 edge this year. Don't even know if my sub was worth it this year.
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DeleteI'm also beginning to question the 50/50 plays. I play about $250-$500 per week. $1-$2-$5. 50/50's and multipliers on FanDuel. It is crazy how my triple and quintuples will hit and then miss a 50/50 with the same line-up. Played two line-ups 151.52 and 158.12. 94 entries, lost one and made last paid position twice... they were 50/50's with a 20 person field (granted that is a small field). After last week and Thursday (100% loss day), really needed that. +$616 on the year.
ReplyDeleteh2h is way safer than dumping 1 lineup into 50/50s. You'll never win them all, but you'll also never lose them all. Unless you miss on Julio when he puts up 45 points. Then you can kill yourself.
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