Quick recap of last week, Russell Wilson's second half saved me. Ended up putting up 112.48 with my cash lineup which ended up in about the 55th percentile of lineups in 50/50's and I won about 60% of my head to head contests.
Nothing to write home about as it was a net loss on the week due to my continued lack of success in GPP's (which is why I don't give out a lot of GPP advice)
Total Investment: $2,100
Total Return: $2,020
Net Loss: ($80)
New Bankroll: $12,494
Week 10:
I like this week a lot, and it's time to push the envelope a little bit. Going with 20% of my bankroll in cash which is about 5-7% more than normal, as this is a week that seems a little bit easier than past weeks. Making a huge fade in cash at running back however, so it could come back to bite me.
Quarterback-
There are really only two quarterbacks that I am interested in for cash games, and will be stacking in either scenario as I love. The first is Matthew Stafford who is in a good spot this week going up against Cleveland in a game in which they are projected to score 28 points.With the Browns run defense as elite as it has been, expect the Lions to have a big passing game.
The other quarterback that I like this week is Ben Roethlisberger, primarily due to the matchup going up against Indianapolis. Indianapolis cut their long-time veteran Vontae Davis, and have the second worst secondary in terms of passing yards allowed.
Running Back
I've said it in about 5 places this week that I'm all in on Leonard Fournette. Here is an excerpt from a starting stacks article that I filled in for this week. Not sure I can say it any better but this is a tremendous spot for Fournette.
Leonard Fournette is coming off a suspension for violation of team rules. Fournette should be well-rested for this game as he has not played in almost a month as the team had a bye week and he missed the game prior to the bye due to an ankle injury. Fournette should be good to go and get back to getting a high volume of carries as the team looks to utilize one of their best players. Fournette has one of the highest floors each and every week due to the amount of touches that he gets per game. On the season, Fournette is averaging 21.7 carries per game and a touchdown per game. His 4.6 yards per carry is second only to Kareem Hunt for running backs who have over 100 carries on the season. Fournette is going up against the Chargers who are allowing 135 total rushing yards per game to opposing teams and 125 yards per game to opposing running backs which is the worst in the NFL. Expect a lot of volume for Fournette this week as he should be able to exploit this matchup.
Other Running Backs I like this week:
Bilal Powell
Le'Veon Bell (See wide receivers below for more comments)
Jordan Howard
Todd Gurley
Wide Receiver:
Antonio Brown is a must for me this week over Le'Veon Bell, as while you could go with both (if you do make sure you play Roethlisberger), I am electing to go with Fournette and Brown. The reason here is simple, the drop off in talent after Antonio Brown is extremely large, while I can spend down at running back and still get players that I really like this week.
There is not another receiver on the board that I pay up for that I feel great about and I can essentially lock in 15 points with 30 point upside. Antonio Brown in each of his last three seasons has three or more games with 2+ touchdowns, he has yet to have one this season and while I normally don't like regressions stats, this is one that I can buy into as when Brown scores, he scores in bunches.
Other wide receivers I like this week:
Marvin Jones
Sterling Shepard
Golden Tate
Cooper Kupp
A.J. Green (GPP only)
My lineup atm: Fitzpatrick/Bell/Morris/AB/AJG/Marvin/Brate/Legatron/Bears DST
ReplyDeleteWill probably try to get up to Powell from Alf
ReplyDeleteThoughts on celek? Can get to ajg and ab if you punt
ReplyDeleteNot for me. Just no upside, even when Kittle was in there his upside was 3.5 points. You're basically just praying for a touchdown.
Deletewas locking in on Bell/Freeman at RB. But you make some great points on Fournette. I'll be reevaluating. 100% agree on AB. This is the week he goes off. I do like the pairing of Stafford and Tate. Also the Bears D ofers tremendous savings and are in a great spot. No need to look anywhere else. To me this is the core group to build around
ReplyDeleteDo you like Shepard or Kupp better this week?
ReplyDeleteShepard
DeleteWhy is AJ Green a GPP only play for you?
ReplyDeleteWith my roster construction, I'm deciding between AJ Green and Marvin Jones. If go with Green, I have to play Celek and Gould. If I go with Jones I can play Rudolph and Prater. Without revealing the rest of the roster, I would love to hear your process for this decision. Thanks so much in advance Devin, love the blog!
Green has been extremely disappointing for a lot of this year. He has the upside to go off for a big game like he did against Buffalo. For me, Marvin Jones and Golden Tate both have higher floors than what Green has, and Celek could very easily get a 0 this week. Just not something I want to do in cash.
ReplyDeleteWhat are your thoughts on Fitzmagic in cash this week? I feel like even with Evans out, his floor is somewhere around 2.5x, with 3x being a pretty reasonable projection against the Jets.
ReplyDeleteI see the main issue being a lower ceiling, but the savings make it pretty easy to fit Fournette and Brown.
I guess to add to this, would you see Eli (only 600 more) as a better cash option than Fitz?
DeleteEli>>>>>>>Fitzpatrick. I want no part of Fitzpatrick this week. If Evans was playing, I could maybe see it, but without Evans, this wide receiving corp is a disaster.
DeleteJust don’t trust Marvin Jones vs the Browns. The play there is Golden Tate imo. The Browns funnel their defense inside which draws on Tate’s strengths not Marvin Jones.
ReplyDelete