Currently at 119, with the Steelers to go, should be another good day.
Update: That Juju Smith-Schuster TD hurt
Update: That Juju Smith-Schuster TD hurt
Sunday, October 29, 2017
It's not how you start, it's how you finish.
Was looking bad early on with Michael Thomas and Kelvin Benjamin starting slow, but what a finish.
Saturday, October 28, 2017
Update 24 Hours before Kickoff- Weather
We're about 24 hours before kickoff (maybe a little less)
I will be answering questions primarily on our DFS Power Grid channel where I talk about Andy Dalton for seemingly half the show. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65a8r1brrAw&t=668s
Weather-
Two games are scaring me off of them this week.
The first is the obvious one which is Philadelphia and San Francisco where we could see 1-2 inches of rain in this game. Rain often times isn't a big deal, but this much rain scares me especially on a field that is real grass which is the case in Philadelphia. I still think the Eagles are in a great spot in GPP's, but in cash it really worries me. Vegas has made a significant change to the over/under as they have dropped this game from 47.5 to 44.5.
The other game that I have my eye on is the wind in this Carolina vs Tampa Bay game. There are mixed reports about what this wind might actually be, I've seen spots where it is 21mph sustained which makes me nervous, but looking at it at the moment it's showing 10-15mph which does not scare me.
Lineup
Here is where I am currently at. The more I have looked into it, the more I have liked the Steelers defense as their passing defense is one of the best in football, they are in the top ten in sacks and the Lions are in the top 10 in sacks allowed.
Regarding Kittle, I actually think that the rain should help Kittle as Beathard will be looking to his college teammate more than the deep threats like Marquise Goodwin who has seen a significant number of targets recently.
One of Benjamin or Alshon Jeffery will likely be in my lineups this week. If the wind is high in this Tampa Bay game, I will change this to Jeffery, as in the rain I feel that the Eagles will go to the big receiver in Jeffery instead of some of their speed receivers like Agholor.
I will be answering questions primarily on our DFS Power Grid channel where I talk about Andy Dalton for seemingly half the show. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65a8r1brrAw&t=668s
Weather-
Two games are scaring me off of them this week.
The first is the obvious one which is Philadelphia and San Francisco where we could see 1-2 inches of rain in this game. Rain often times isn't a big deal, but this much rain scares me especially on a field that is real grass which is the case in Philadelphia. I still think the Eagles are in a great spot in GPP's, but in cash it really worries me. Vegas has made a significant change to the over/under as they have dropped this game from 47.5 to 44.5.
The other game that I have my eye on is the wind in this Carolina vs Tampa Bay game. There are mixed reports about what this wind might actually be, I've seen spots where it is 21mph sustained which makes me nervous, but looking at it at the moment it's showing 10-15mph which does not scare me.
Lineup
Here is where I am currently at. The more I have looked into it, the more I have liked the Steelers defense as their passing defense is one of the best in football, they are in the top ten in sacks and the Lions are in the top 10 in sacks allowed.
Regarding Kittle, I actually think that the rain should help Kittle as Beathard will be looking to his college teammate more than the deep threats like Marquise Goodwin who has seen a significant number of targets recently.
One of Benjamin or Alshon Jeffery will likely be in my lineups this week. If the wind is high in this Tampa Bay game, I will change this to Jeffery, as in the rain I feel that the Eagles will go to the big receiver in Jeffery instead of some of their speed receivers like Agholor.
Friday, October 27, 2017
Week 8 Preview- Week 7 Recap
Apologies for the late post, have had a very crazy week.
Week 7 ended up not great, not bad. I was up $125 total last week which could always be worse. This puts me up to $12,449 on the season.
This week, weather once again is going to be an issue particularly in Philadelphia. Currently, I love the Eagles passing game in this one whether it be Wentz, Jeffery or Agholor, but the game could see some significant rain and if that were to impact the game would have me off of all of those guys. How am I handling this? I'm keeping an eye on the Vegas line, I'm not a meteorologist and they have better experts and historical data as far as how certain wind and rain impact a game so if the line drops 2 points or more I start to get scared.
Regarding lineups and bankroll, I will be playing my typical volume which is about 13% ($1,625) of my bankroll in cash and 1.5% ($200) of my bankroll in GPP's, but I am splitting this 50/50 as far the Sunday morning slate-Monday slate and the Main slate.
The reason for this is that I have the Vikings as by far the number one overall defense for me this week. In that slate, I am playing 50/50's and double ups only as I want exposure to teams who will not take the Vikings defense where a majority of the head to heads playing that slate will likely have the Vikings. On that slate, I also like Demaryius Thomas.
Now let's get to the main slate. Here is my main lineup. As you can see it is subject to change based on the weather as I have Wentz and Agholor included in this.
Week 7 ended up not great, not bad. I was up $125 total last week which could always be worse. This puts me up to $12,449 on the season.
This week, weather once again is going to be an issue particularly in Philadelphia. Currently, I love the Eagles passing game in this one whether it be Wentz, Jeffery or Agholor, but the game could see some significant rain and if that were to impact the game would have me off of all of those guys. How am I handling this? I'm keeping an eye on the Vegas line, I'm not a meteorologist and they have better experts and historical data as far as how certain wind and rain impact a game so if the line drops 2 points or more I start to get scared.
Regarding lineups and bankroll, I will be playing my typical volume which is about 13% ($1,625) of my bankroll in cash and 1.5% ($200) of my bankroll in GPP's, but I am splitting this 50/50 as far the Sunday morning slate-Monday slate and the Main slate.
The reason for this is that I have the Vikings as by far the number one overall defense for me this week. In that slate, I am playing 50/50's and double ups only as I want exposure to teams who will not take the Vikings defense where a majority of the head to heads playing that slate will likely have the Vikings. On that slate, I also like Demaryius Thomas.
Now let's get to the main slate. Here is my main lineup. As you can see it is subject to change based on the weather as I have Wentz and Agholor included in this.
Sunday, October 22, 2017
Making a change- Rain
I'm not normally a rain guy, but this doesn't look good. I still think it's relatively light, and am still going with Michael Thomas, but swapping out to Dak. Here's to hoping that it doesn't come back to haunt me like it did last week.
https://twitter.com/KevinRothWx/status/922127647576154112
This is officially a weird week.
https://twitter.com/KevinRothWx/status/922127647576154112
This is officially a weird week.
Week 7 Cash Lineup
Going a little bit lighter than normal on this one, but still like it quite a bit.
Saturday, October 21, 2017
This Week-Injuries Change Everything- Bankroll Update
Current Bankroll after last week is down to $12,324 after a tough week where I did not win hardly anything.
This week, everything is dictated off of injury situations that you need to keep an eye on. At this point it is hard to even put a lineup in as one or two of these injuries can change everything.
With that said, I haven't entered a single contest yet and likely won't be doing that until tomorrow morning once we start to get a sense of what injuries there may be. If there are only a few that is ideal and I will enter the same amount of contests that I normally do. If it is a mess with injuries, I scale my action way back, as I have been burned by great value plays before.
Running Backs-
DeMarco Murray (Hamstring)- If he is out, in cash games Derrick Henry is a top play, and a fade for me in GPP's due to how popular Henry will be. If Murray is active, you could look to Henry as a GPP play and assume that Murray will be limited, but the matchup is a tough one this week against a good CLE run defense.
Leonard Fournette (Ankle)- This one is interesting as Leonard Fournette did not practice all week. If he is out, you could look at Chris Ivory as a potentially interesting play in GPP's.
Melvin Gordon (Shoulder)- It looks like Gordon will play, but if for some reason he did not, Brandon Oliver could be used in GPP's.
Wide Receiver-
Stefon Diggs (Groin)- Diggs is questionable, but it appears unlikely he will go. Adam Thielen once again should be considered due to all the targets he has been getting without Diggs in the lineup.
Keenan Allen (Shoulder)- It looks like Keenan Allen will play, but he is questionable. Allen is not really a guy that we are targeting in a tough matchup against Denver, it could help someone like Hunter Henry if he missed, although slightly.
DeVante Parker (Ankle)- Parker is doubtful, which means Jarvis Landry should be considered once again for this Miami Dolphins team.
Marqise Lee (Knee)- Lee is questionable if he was unable to go Allen Hurns becomes a tremendous cheap option for this Jaguars team in a good matchup.
Jordan Matthews (Thumb)- It appears unlikely that Jordan Matthews will play, this Bills team is in a great matchup but have no one to throw to in this game. This likely helps LeSean McCoy if anyone as he will catch more passes out of the backfield as we saw last week.
Tight End
Delanie Walker (Calf)- Walker is the big one that we're watching from a tight end position, as more and more signs are pointing towards he does not play although he is still listed as questionable. If he does not play, Jonnu Smith becomes one of the top tight ends on this slate in terms of value plays.
This week, everything is dictated off of injury situations that you need to keep an eye on. At this point it is hard to even put a lineup in as one or two of these injuries can change everything.
With that said, I haven't entered a single contest yet and likely won't be doing that until tomorrow morning once we start to get a sense of what injuries there may be. If there are only a few that is ideal and I will enter the same amount of contests that I normally do. If it is a mess with injuries, I scale my action way back, as I have been burned by great value plays before.
Running Backs-
DeMarco Murray (Hamstring)- If he is out, in cash games Derrick Henry is a top play, and a fade for me in GPP's due to how popular Henry will be. If Murray is active, you could look to Henry as a GPP play and assume that Murray will be limited, but the matchup is a tough one this week against a good CLE run defense.
Leonard Fournette (Ankle)- This one is interesting as Leonard Fournette did not practice all week. If he is out, you could look at Chris Ivory as a potentially interesting play in GPP's.
Melvin Gordon (Shoulder)- It looks like Gordon will play, but if for some reason he did not, Brandon Oliver could be used in GPP's.
Wide Receiver-
Stefon Diggs (Groin)- Diggs is questionable, but it appears unlikely he will go. Adam Thielen once again should be considered due to all the targets he has been getting without Diggs in the lineup.
Keenan Allen (Shoulder)- It looks like Keenan Allen will play, but he is questionable. Allen is not really a guy that we are targeting in a tough matchup against Denver, it could help someone like Hunter Henry if he missed, although slightly.
DeVante Parker (Ankle)- Parker is doubtful, which means Jarvis Landry should be considered once again for this Miami Dolphins team.
Marqise Lee (Knee)- Lee is questionable if he was unable to go Allen Hurns becomes a tremendous cheap option for this Jaguars team in a good matchup.
Jordan Matthews (Thumb)- It appears unlikely that Jordan Matthews will play, this Bills team is in a great matchup but have no one to throw to in this game. This likely helps LeSean McCoy if anyone as he will catch more passes out of the backfield as we saw last week.
Tight End
Delanie Walker (Calf)- Walker is the big one that we're watching from a tight end position, as more and more signs are pointing towards he does not play although he is still listed as questionable. If he does not play, Jonnu Smith becomes one of the top tight ends on this slate in terms of value plays.
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