I will be answering questions primarily on our DFS Power Grid channel where I talk about Andy Dalton for seemingly half the show. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65a8r1brrAw&t=668s
Weather-
Two games are scaring me off of them this week.
The first is the obvious one which is Philadelphia and San Francisco where we could see 1-2 inches of rain in this game. Rain often times isn't a big deal, but this much rain scares me especially on a field that is real grass which is the case in Philadelphia. I still think the Eagles are in a great spot in GPP's, but in cash it really worries me. Vegas has made a significant change to the over/under as they have dropped this game from 47.5 to 44.5.
The other game that I have my eye on is the wind in this Carolina vs Tampa Bay game. There are mixed reports about what this wind might actually be, I've seen spots where it is 21mph sustained which makes me nervous, but looking at it at the moment it's showing 10-15mph which does not scare me.
Lineup
Here is where I am currently at. The more I have looked into it, the more I have liked the Steelers defense as their passing defense is one of the best in football, they are in the top ten in sacks and the Lions are in the top 10 in sacks allowed.
Regarding Kittle, I actually think that the rain should help Kittle as Beathard will be looking to his college teammate more than the deep threats like Marquise Goodwin who has seen a significant number of targets recently.
One of Benjamin or Alshon Jeffery will likely be in my lineups this week. If the wind is high in this Tampa Bay game, I will change this to Jeffery, as in the rain I feel that the Eagles will go to the big receiver in Jeffery instead of some of their speed receivers like Agholor.
In situations like this where last minute scratches are possible do you keep the core lineup and just swap in a similarly priced player? Or do you have alternative lineups that are built with the idea that player X isn't available?
ReplyDeleteAlso - how does this impact your approach on GPPs where multiple lineups have to be modified?
I'll always have alternative lineups that are built in case something changes.
ReplyDeleteRegarding GPP's, it's similar although I don't build the lineups. I think about if players x and y are out what would I do.
What are your thoughts on using baldwin in cash.
ReplyDeleteAre you stearing clear of blount? Wouldn the weather hypothetically increase his workload?
I like Baldwin, don't love him. I have Michael Thomas slightly higher. Baldwin has these massive games at times but then disappears. Blount is a tricky one. The problem is that the 49ers have really struggled on runs out wide as their defensive ends are horrible, while DeForest Buckner up the middle has been one of the best defensive tackles in football. This to me indicates the Eagles may use Smallwood and possibly Clement in this game and the extra volume goes to them. Just my theory though.
ReplyDeleteI agree im glad you see it the same as it takes the little savings voice out of my head.
ReplyDeleteWhat about doctson at 5200? The vegas line is holding on that game.
In benjamins spot that opens up 1400 in salary.
Had that exact conversation with myself. The problem is he saw 50 snaps last week in a good matchup and had 3/39. Is this his floor? Is this his ceiling? His snap counts should be there, but it's a definite risk, I was not able to find a use of that $1,400 that made me feel like my overall lineup was better.
ReplyDeleteI wouldnt think his floor is lower than kittle in a downpour.
ReplyDeleteThe 1400 is tricky a better te and more expensive k and d is about the best you getm i wouldnt think Bell is going to greatly out score McCoy but you could go up to him.
Please tell mw if its a bad call. But I could see the NO game being very run heavy and with a mess of targets i could see another mediocore 8-11 pt game from Thomas. If you replace him for Doctson.....
DeleteI got Wilson/McCoy/Ingram/Green/Benjamin/Doctson/Graham/Lutz/Bengals or Seahawks D.
Thoughts?
I think not paying up for Bell is a mistake. Sure Shady is in a good spot, but hes going against an underated OAK run D and vulture pro Tolbert. I will be 100% Bell today
ReplyDeleteI do not believe Bells score will vary much from Shadys this week. Bells not a bad play but the loss of salary is hard to deal with.
DeleteI know it was probably addresed in the podcast, but can someone briefly explain why no Dalton?
ReplyDeleteWhat is the latest on the wind for the CAR game? Fade Benjamin?
ReplyDeleteVegas line is holding steady. Possibly going up before start. Play it fairly normal
ReplyDeleteI'm in Tampa. Skies are clear. A bit windy, but nothing out of control.
ReplyDeleteI'm keeping Benjamin, the Vegas line hasn't moved. Philadelphia scares me just as much as TB Car and Vegas has made a change dropping it 3 points
ReplyDeleteIm going O'leary over Kittle. I think that game will shoot out and weather plus a rookie qb at philly leaves me 0 confidence in Kittle. Floors should be similar.
Deleteclearing in Philly
ReplyDeletewell not clear, but getting better
ReplyDeleteGood luck to us all
ReplyDelete