Friday, October 13, 2017

Heading into Week 6 Part 1

It's hard to believe that we are already 35% of the way through the season after this week as it feels like we've only just begun. This week is actually a pretty exciting week, as there are a number of directions that we can go as we build our lineups.

I have a ton to say about this week, so I am releasing this in two parts.

Bankroll Strategy-
This week it is very tempting for me to go bigger than usual as I am coming off of two consecutive very solid weeks and the bankroll is doing well. However, I actually think that I am going to dial it back just a little bit, and the reason I am considering doing that is as you'll see over the next couple of days there is really two strategies to building lineups this week it is spend up on running backs who have great matchups or spend up on receivers who have great matchups. This leaves me with a dilemma, on most weeks it is very easy to build my cash lineups based on my process, but at the moment I have about 12 cash lineups that are currently viable which means that there are more combinations that I feel could beat the lineup that I end up throwing out there this week.

Should I build multiple lineups? 
I get this question a lot and my answer is always the same regardless of the week. I understand the argument for multiple lineups and if you play only 50/50's I can make an argument for doing it as you get diversification doing it. I'm not going to get into the head to head vs 50/50 argument again, read the previous blogs if you want information on that, but what I will say is if you build multiple lineups, build a "core" of players. What this means is have several players the same on every cash lineup that you build, the reason behind this is that if you build 3 or more different rosters with no duplicate players you are essentially playing against yourself and the rake will win in the end.

Let's get into lineups-

The biggest question will be this week, spend up at running back or spend up at wide receiver?

QB- 
DeShaun Watson is going to be the most popular guy this week and for good reason. You can read a full game matchup of this Houston Texans defense here, but ultimately the one thing you are going to want to know is he is averaging 35.1 FanDuel points per game over his last two outings and gets a very favorable matchup this week going up against the Browns secondary who have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Making matters even worse here are the quarterbacks that they have faced. Ben Roethlisberger (on the road), Joe Flacco, Jacoby Brissett, Andy Dalton, Josh McCown. None of these are great quarterbacks and the Browns have still allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Running Back-
This is where it gets tough. Do we spend up or spend down? Kareem Hunt and Leonard Fournette are the two guys at the top that I prefer this week as both are in ideal matchups. Hunt is going to be in every lineup I build this week as this Steelers defense has been abysmal against the run so far this season. That ultimately leaves the question do we spend up with Fournette who is coming off of a big week, or do we consider another running back?

Cheap options-
Mark Ingram- Mark Ingram is going to be popular this week, but I honestly think that this is a mistake. People are going to look at this and say that the Saints traded Adrian Peterson so Ingram should see a bigger workload. What if I told you that Peterson only saw 6 snaps last game? It is not as if Ingram is going to see a significant increase in workload and he is going against a very difficult matchup going up against the Lions who give up 2.2 yards per carry when Jarrad Davis is in the game.

Other Cheap Options
Jerick McKinnon
Samaje Perine
Buck Allen

Wide Receiver-

5 comments:

  1. My early rosters are:

    Smith/Fournette/CJA/Hopkins/Hogan/Fitzgerald/Henry/Novak/Ravens
    Watson/Fournette/CJA/Keenan/Hogan/Fitzgerald/Engram/Lutz/Ravens

    Feels like CJA is in a very good spot for 15 touches and a TD. I'm not completely sold on Watson, feels like it could be a let down spot -- he beat up on godawful TENN and garbage-time vs KC. But it's going to be tough to get off him if he's going to be mega-chalky.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I like Cousins/Gurley/CJA builds. The fact that we are so far apart, when usually we have very similar LUs, speaks to what you were saying about viabile LUs.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Replies
    1. Yes, primarily just talking cash on this blog.

      Delete
  4. Also, Steelers are -10% vs run defense at FO

    ReplyDelete