Week 7 ended up not great, not bad. I was up $125 total last week which could always be worse. This puts me up to $12,449 on the season.
This week, weather once again is going to be an issue particularly in Philadelphia. Currently, I love the Eagles passing game in this one whether it be Wentz, Jeffery or Agholor, but the game could see some significant rain and if that were to impact the game would have me off of all of those guys. How am I handling this? I'm keeping an eye on the Vegas line, I'm not a meteorologist and they have better experts and historical data as far as how certain wind and rain impact a game so if the line drops 2 points or more I start to get scared.
Regarding lineups and bankroll, I will be playing my typical volume which is about 13% ($1,625) of my bankroll in cash and 1.5% ($200) of my bankroll in GPP's, but I am splitting this 50/50 as far the Sunday morning slate-Monday slate and the Main slate.
The reason for this is that I have the Vikings as by far the number one overall defense for me this week. In that slate, I am playing 50/50's and double ups only as I want exposure to teams who will not take the Vikings defense where a majority of the head to heads playing that slate will likely have the Vikings. On that slate, I also like Demaryius Thomas.
Now let's get to the main slate. Here is my main lineup. As you can see it is subject to change based on the weather as I have Wentz and Agholor included in this.
That was my original play. I think I'm going to pay up for Kareem Hunt and go cheap at WR with play Doctson.
ReplyDeleteAnd cheap with Doyle
DeleteWhat was your original play?
DeleteThe same as your lineup listed
DeleteIts going to be raining for sure in Philly during the game
ReplyDeleteHey Devin, loving the blog this season! The DFS community really appreciates all the time you put into it.
ReplyDeleteAs far as cash game plays go this week, it seems like a lot of Bengals plays are on the radar. My question is how many Bengals would be too many this week? I like Mixon, Green, and the D/ST individually, but I don't feel like playing all three together is a smart cash play. Are you fading Mixon and the D/ST in the event that they Bungal it up and the Colts keep it close?
Thanks!
Hey AJ- If you're into podcasts, I highly recommend you check out the DFS Power Grid that I am a part of. I think we talk about the Bengals for about 20 minutes of the show. I think playing all three will be very popular this week with Mixon probably the least popular on FanDuel due to the ability to fit other players into your lineup. In cash, I'm not opposed to doing it especially if AJ Green and the Bengals are going to be highly owned so essentially they're to block your opponent. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65a8r1brrAw
ReplyDeleteI'm probably being a homer here, but the Bears defense looks legit to me, recency bias notwithstanding. The Saints feel like a trap, even at home to me. How confident are you in your Thomas and Ingram plays?
ReplyDeleteThomas would be the guy who potentially could get swapped out, but I really like Ingram this week though as the Bears have struggled against running backs recently, 7th most fantasy points against running back since week 5. I like Keenan Allen quite a bit, so he's an option to swap to. The Bears defense is opportunistic, but not sure how great it is.
DeleteDevin
ReplyDeleteI built the same qb, rb and aj green.
What are your thoughts on Hunter Henry as a cash option?
I have Witten slightly higher, but Henry is my #2 option.
ReplyDeleteAlways reassuring to hear that!
DeleteI think witten is my top gpp play. Mid price, low ownership and a lot of potential. If you have the time can you explain why he has a cash floor in your opinion?
If it rains i like him more in gpp.
Thoughts on DJax over Agholor? Ags low volume is pretty scary and makes him TD-or-bust in a game where we could see Alshon/Ertz get the TDs and then Blount grind it out.
ReplyDeleteYou could also think about going down from Thomas to Kelvin -- TB dealing with a lot of CB injuries and have hemorrhaged points to outside WRs.
ReplyDeleteI think it might be worth paying up for CIN DST just as a blocker.