I am Devin Knotts, 2018 will be my 8th season playing NFL DFS. I have made five live finals by playing DFS. Join me on my journey as I start with $10,000 in bankroll and show you how I manage it, give you advice for the week, and go over lessons learned for the week.
Email: knotts@footballguys.com
Saturday, October 7, 2017
Lineup Week 5- Initial Build
This is by no means final, as I've been a bit under the weather today. Here are my thoughts, check back here later today and early tomorrow for an update.
Brown worries me. You just never know with that offense. It could be him this week, or could be the other Brown, Nelson, or Fitz. Seems risky as a cash game play. Seems like every time I feel like I know which Cardinal is going to go off they end up having 2 catches. Just to unpredictable for me.
Completely get it, but at $4,500 I'm in on him due to the players that it fits into my lineup. 29 targets over his last three games, while Larry Fitzgerald only has 28 targets.
General strategy question: when is playing a stack in a cash game merited? From a lot of what I've read (including here on FBG), stacks in cash games are portrayed as something to avoid due to the higher variance associated with it. I'm finding a lot of lineups I like for cash that feature a Watkins/Hopkins stacks, but I'm wary to go with those despite the individual players' higher floors.
I'm a big fan of stacking even in cash games when it makes sense. Here's my thought process. For situations where you like the quarterback and he has one receiver who is extremely high volume such as Hopkins, if Watson has a bad game it's unlikely that you would win even if you didn't stack. At the same time, if that stack goes off, you're going to win so the upside is there.
I won't intentionally stack, but if I love certain quarterbacks such as Roethlisberger, Hopkins, Dak, etc then I will take a hard look at their #1 receiver.
I don't hate it, I just don't trust Miami's offense at the moment, they had a tremendous matchup against the Jets and Saints the last two weeks so even though the Titans have been awful, I just can't do it.
Yes, I posted a strategy blog a few weeks back explaining why. I get my diversification through H2H matchups. If you play 50/50's and play multiple 50/50's one option is to get diversification through multiple lineups.
Hey Devin, howcome you decided on Crosby as a kicker, instead of someone like Elliot or Butker? They both seem to be in better positions for field goal opportunities.
Highest projected scoring game and had a little bit of cash left over. You could go down to Elliott and upgrade the defense or somewhere else pretty easily.
Seems risky to fade all Packers positional players in Cash this week... Did D. Adams clearing the concussion protocol affect your thoughts on J. Nelson or R. Cobb as cash plays???
I've thought about the Packers more this week than any other team and maybe all other teams combined.Adams is likely to go, he is traveling with the team and practiced/cleared concussion protocol today which complicates things. Randall Cobb is in the best matchup, but can we trust Randall Cobb at $6,600? He is not really someone I want to play due to his floor being so low. I love Jordy this week, but he is $8,600 which essentially forces me to remove both Hopkins and Bryant who are two of my top 5 guys.
Maybe Adams is the play at $6,900, but his downside is high for cash. Dallas is projected to score more points this week than Green Bay which makes me tend to go towards them.
As a hardcore Ravens fan I do like Oaks def. But I do agree that Elliot is a better play at K. Only because I believe the Eagles will struggle to score forcing more attempts.
Brown worries me. You just never know with that offense. It could be him this week, or could be the other Brown, Nelson, or Fitz. Seems risky as a cash game play. Seems like every time I feel like I know which Cardinal is going to go off they end up having 2 catches. Just to unpredictable for me.
ReplyDeleteCompletely get it, but at $4,500 I'm in on him due to the players that it fits into my lineup. 29 targets over his last three games, while Larry Fitzgerald only has 28 targets.
ReplyDeleteI would be interested in some of your perspectives on GPP. Enjoy your cash post!
ReplyDeleteWill try to post something on here, honestly haven't given much thought to GPP yet.
DeleteGeneral strategy question: when is playing a stack in a cash game merited?
ReplyDeleteFrom a lot of what I've read (including here on FBG), stacks in cash games are portrayed as something to avoid due to the higher variance associated with it.
I'm finding a lot of lineups I like for cash that feature a Watkins/Hopkins stacks, but I'm wary to go with those despite the individual players' higher floors.
I'm a big fan of stacking even in cash games when it makes sense. Here's my thought process. For situations where you like the quarterback and he has one receiver who is extremely high volume such as Hopkins, if Watson has a bad game it's unlikely that you would win even if you didn't stack. At the same time, if that stack goes off, you're going to win so the upside is there.
ReplyDeleteI won't intentionally stack, but if I love certain quarterbacks such as Roethlisberger, Hopkins, Dak, etc then I will take a hard look at their #1 receiver.
What is you opinon of jordy and parker paired with jaron in cash?
ReplyDeleteI don't hate it, I just don't trust Miami's offense at the moment, they had a tremendous matchup against the Jets and Saints the last two weeks so even though the Titans have been awful, I just can't do it.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteDo you ride one lineup for all your cash games?
ReplyDeleteYes, I posted a strategy blog a few weeks back explaining why. I get my diversification through H2H matchups. If you play 50/50's and play multiple 50/50's one option is to get diversification through multiple lineups.
DeleteIll go back and read it thanks.
ReplyDeleteHey Devin, howcome you decided on Crosby as a kicker, instead of someone like Elliot or Butker? They both seem to be in better positions for field goal opportunities.
ReplyDeleteHighest projected scoring game and had a little bit of cash left over. You could go down to Elliott and upgrade the defense or somewhere else pretty easily.
ReplyDeleteSeems risky to fade all Packers positional players in Cash this week... Did D. Adams clearing the concussion protocol affect your thoughts on J. Nelson or R. Cobb as cash plays???
ReplyDeleteI've thought about the Packers more this week than any other team and maybe all other teams combined.Adams is likely to go, he is traveling with the team and practiced/cleared concussion protocol today which complicates things. Randall Cobb is in the best matchup, but can we trust Randall Cobb at $6,600? He is not really someone I want to play due to his floor being so low. I love Jordy this week, but he is $8,600 which essentially forces me to remove both Hopkins and Bryant who are two of my top 5 guys.
DeleteMaybe Adams is the play at $6,900, but his downside is high for cash. Dallas is projected to score more points this week than Green Bay which makes me tend to go towards them.
As a hardcore Ravens fan I do like Oaks def. But I do agree that Elliot is a better play at K. Only because I believe the Eagles will struggle to score forcing more attempts.
ReplyDelete