Week 12 Cash Lineup

Here is where I am currently at. I wanted to put the same time and effort into this week and with this week being a weird week this is coming out late.

Current Bankroll: $11,348
Total invested this week is $1,900 (16.7%)

Couple of notes

• Matt Ryan is in a great spot this week he's playing much better of late. He's in a tremendous spot this week against Tampa Bay. 
• With Devonta Freeman out, I want a share of both the passing and rushing matchups in Atlanta as Coleman should get all of the work. Julio Jones is going to be popular and if you follow this blog long enough you'll know that I like Julio, but I just can't do it after being burned time and time again by the lack of touchdowns. He's more of a DraftKings play for me this week.
• Going back to Antonio Brown after being burned two weeks ago. At this point, he's still by far the most consistent wide receiver. 
• Le'Veon Bell is going to be popular this week, but the reality is that Gurley has been better this season and is in a better matchup as New Orleans has given up 100+ yards in three of their last five games to Aaron Jones, Jordan Howard, and Samaje Perine. 
• Kenny Stills with Matt Moore seems like a no-brainer, but it is actually the one spot that might change between now and tomorrow morning. I'm still debating between Stills and Corey Davis if Rishard Matthews is out. 

The Case Against Russell Wilson

I will be giving a full post on the slate breakdown, but here is some background on why you'll see me fading Russell Wilson this week.

Let me start by saying that Russell Wilson will be the clear chalk play in cash. I can't fault anyone with wanting to play him. However, Wilson's track record against San Francisco scares me. The reason for this is that Darren Bevell seemingly won't unleash Wilson unless he has to. In his last three games against San Francisco, Wilson has thrown for just three touchdowns and run for a total of 41 yards including two games where he ran for under 5 yards.

Below is a breakdown of Russell Wilson's last two seasons comparing fantasy points and opponents points scored. The big takeaway here is that in games in which opponents have scored 20 points or less, Russell Wilson is averaging 17.2 fantasy points. At $8.6k, this has me extremely nervous as the Seahawks are a team that rarely blows opponents out and will just grind out the run.

Giving Thanks and Thanksgiving Strategy

Thank You
First of all, before I start this, I just wanted to give thanks.

1) Thank you to Footballguys (Joe and David) for sponsoring this platform, if you aren't a subscriber to Footballguys, please consider it next season if you've had any success this year. There are over 20 articles per week, projections, etc, and without them, this blog would not be kept free.

2) Thank you for following this blog. Our viewership this season compared to last is up 300% which is awesome and I am especially appreciative of the community aspect we have built on here where. I try to respond to every comment and even though I don't get to all of them, I read every single one of them.

Thanksgiving Strategy-

Thanksgiving is one of my favorite slates of the year, but I do treat it a little bit differently. This is a slate in which I go a little bit more GPP focused, and my cash games are designed a little bit more for 3 man contests and 100 man contests than they are head to heads.

Head to Heads-
To be honest, I have no idea how many head to head contests I will be joining for Thanksgiving. Typically, I have a defined dollar amount that I want to get in play each week, but honestly, Thanksgiving is the exception to that rule. What I do for Thanksgiving is I will join any contest where a player does not have an experience badge or if I have never heard of that player. The reality is that there are so many new players that play only on these types of slates that there is a big advantage to be had if you are smart about game selection.

If you are a player without a badge, what I always recommend is never post games as people especially on FanDuel where there are no matchup blockers and other people can join every one of your posted games. I will only take one matchup per player maximum this is a principle I have established early on that I don't want to be the guy who is mass joining players as I feel they're bad for the industry.

Lineup-
I posted my cash lineup as of now, and it entirely changes if Sterling Shepard does play. Two key players, I want to touch on as I don't have a lot of time on this short week, but wanted to touch on two picks that I'm sure are a bit controversial.

Eli Manning- 
The quarterback position on this slate is nothing short of horrible. I could make strong cases against every quarterback on this slate. My favorite quarterback this week is Matthew Stafford as I do not believe that the Lions will be able to run the ball at all this week, but ultimately I have Eli Manning a close second in terms of value. The reality is that his floor is 200 yards and a touchdown as the Redskins have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points this season to opposing quarterbacks this season.

Josh Doctson-
Why Josh Doctson over Jamison Crowder who will be one of the more popular plays on the slate. The answer is that the chance for Doctson to score a touchdown this week is higher as my concern with Crowder is that he has scored one touchdown on the year and is going up against a much bigger cornerback than him in Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Doctson has been on the field for 90%+ snaps in each of the last two weeks and he should be in a good opportunity against Janoris Jenkins who seemingly has given up after being suspended three weeks ago. 

GPP-
Players that I like as deep shots this week-
Byron Marshall
Kenny Golladay
Marvin Jones- Tough matchup against Xavier Rhodes, but still believe in Jones to come through and will be under-owned

Thanksgiving Lineup

Running behind this week, so here is my lineup and where it stands at the current moment. A detail breakdown is coming at some point tonight, just wanted to get this in front of you all so that you had it.

Recap of the Day

Overall not bad, excluding the big head to head (which we have excluded the wins and losses in the bankroll tracking.

Final score put up 131.26, which all things considering could have been slightly higher. Won about 75% of my head to head games which part of this was likely due to pure luck as I faced a seemingly abnormally high amount of Alex Smith this week.

Starting Bankroll: 11,024
Amount invested: $1,600
Return: 1,924
Net Profit $324
New Bankroll: $11,348

Looking forward notes:

I don't know what to do with LeSean McCoy. Obviously the game script destroyed him in this game, but even early on when it was close and Peterman was throwing interceptions, they kept throwing the ball instead of handing the ball off to McCoy. He had 70 yards and a touchdown on one drive and then the team went away from him.

High Stake H2H

https://www.fanduel.com/games/21941/contests/21941-213506094/entries/1331248147/scoring

Primary Lineup Change- Apologies for this being late.

Hey guys- First apologies for doing this so late.

I am going to run two lineups out this week, with this lineup below being my primary lineup, I will still be playing my second lineup. Why Tavarres King? After looking into it further, he is the clear beneficiary of Shepard being out and they are going to need someone else to throw to.

Gronkowski gets me off of Kelce in the wind and essentially just stacks Brady and the Patriots.