If you haven't checked us out, here is the podcast that I do every week. If you don't listen but like the blog, at least give us a click.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QALg3fzi4gE&t=2677s
I try to keep it loose and fun on the show.
Saturday, September 30, 2017
Friday, September 29, 2017
Heading into Week 4
Took a little bit of a mental break after the loss last week to gather myself and re-group, but am back and ready to go for Week 4. More to come on this week, but here are my initial thoughts.
My official value rankings are located here.
Quarterback-
I think I will be gravitating to Russell Wilson this week even though Vontae Davis is likely to play in this game. The Colts secondary has been awful so far this year and while adding Davis helps, but for a week that we're going to try to save salary, Wilson is about $600 too cheap compared to where he should be.
A lot of people like Carson Palmer this week at $7,400 and DeShaun Watson at $7,300. I can't-do either in cash, to be honest. I like Palmer more than Watson, but at the end of the day, I am unable to get past the first few weeks where Palmer really struggled. Watson, I have a harder time understanding as outside of a game against a bad New England secondary, he has not thrown for over 125 yards in his other two games. Watson is a nice GPP play as he has rushing touchdown upside.
Other quarterbacks that I like-
Tom Brady
Marcus Mariota (GPP)- Houston's secondary is an absolute mess right now
Running Back
Ezekiel Elliott is going to be the chalk this week and for good reason, as this Rams rush defense has been absolutely atrocious so far this year. They allowed Rob Kelley (aka Fat Rob) to run for 6.5 yards per carry and Carlos Hyde to score his only two touchdowns of the year. This is a get right game for Elliott in this game.
Other running backs I like:
Todd Gurley (Volume in passing game has been a nice floor for Gurley
Joe Mixon is too cheap at $5,600 going up against a Browns team that is likely going to be without Jamie Collins and could be without Danny Shelton the former first-round defensive tackle.
Wide Receiver:
It's hard not to love A.J. Green this week. He has over 100 yards receiving in four of his last six games against Cleveland and has a touchdown in three of his last six games. This is a prime matchup that Green should be able to exploit.
Other wide receivers I like:
Emmanuel Sanders- Big fan of Sanders this week as he will be going up against David Amerson who has struggled so far this year.
Doug Baldwin- Vontae Davis will play, but the Seahawks line Baldwin up all over the field and Davis is not typically a shadow corner so Baldwin will be able to take advantage of this secondary.
Larry Fitzgerald- Fitzgerald will be one of the highest owned receivers based on his Monday Night performance where he had 13 receptions for 149 yards and a touchdown. If you're in GPP's fading him could be a great option as in his two games prior to Monday Night Football, he had less than 100 total yards.
Defense- J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets. Yes, this is likely crazy, but they're facing Blake Bortles, who is a quarterback who frequently turns the ball over. The Jaguars were in London last week and this is a key let down spot for them after they beat the Ravens 44-7. The Jets are finally getting healthy on their defensive line with Muhammad Wilkerson and Leonard Williams both dealing with injuries early this season.
Other defenses that I like.
Seahawks
Bengals
Favorite Stack of the week (GPP's)- Dez Bryant and Dak Prescott- This is an offense that everyone is going to be gravitating towards Ezekiel Elliott and I will be doing the exact same in cash games, but in GPP's Dez has seen a significant number of red zone targets so far this season, but has not had the yardage. The good news is that Pierre Garcon had 7 receptions for 142 yards last week, so this is a prime opportunity for Dak and Dez to get right in this game.
My official value rankings are located here.
Quarterback-
I think I will be gravitating to Russell Wilson this week even though Vontae Davis is likely to play in this game. The Colts secondary has been awful so far this year and while adding Davis helps, but for a week that we're going to try to save salary, Wilson is about $600 too cheap compared to where he should be.
A lot of people like Carson Palmer this week at $7,400 and DeShaun Watson at $7,300. I can't-do either in cash, to be honest. I like Palmer more than Watson, but at the end of the day, I am unable to get past the first few weeks where Palmer really struggled. Watson, I have a harder time understanding as outside of a game against a bad New England secondary, he has not thrown for over 125 yards in his other two games. Watson is a nice GPP play as he has rushing touchdown upside.
Other quarterbacks that I like-
Tom Brady
Marcus Mariota (GPP)- Houston's secondary is an absolute mess right now
Running Back
Ezekiel Elliott is going to be the chalk this week and for good reason, as this Rams rush defense has been absolutely atrocious so far this year. They allowed Rob Kelley (aka Fat Rob) to run for 6.5 yards per carry and Carlos Hyde to score his only two touchdowns of the year. This is a get right game for Elliott in this game.
Other running backs I like:
Todd Gurley (Volume in passing game has been a nice floor for Gurley
Joe Mixon is too cheap at $5,600 going up against a Browns team that is likely going to be without Jamie Collins and could be without Danny Shelton the former first-round defensive tackle.
Wide Receiver:
It's hard not to love A.J. Green this week. He has over 100 yards receiving in four of his last six games against Cleveland and has a touchdown in three of his last six games. This is a prime matchup that Green should be able to exploit.
Other wide receivers I like:
Emmanuel Sanders- Big fan of Sanders this week as he will be going up against David Amerson who has struggled so far this year.
Doug Baldwin- Vontae Davis will play, but the Seahawks line Baldwin up all over the field and Davis is not typically a shadow corner so Baldwin will be able to take advantage of this secondary.
Larry Fitzgerald- Fitzgerald will be one of the highest owned receivers based on his Monday Night performance where he had 13 receptions for 149 yards and a touchdown. If you're in GPP's fading him could be a great option as in his two games prior to Monday Night Football, he had less than 100 total yards.
Defense- J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets. Yes, this is likely crazy, but they're facing Blake Bortles, who is a quarterback who frequently turns the ball over. The Jaguars were in London last week and this is a key let down spot for them after they beat the Ravens 44-7. The Jets are finally getting healthy on their defensive line with Muhammad Wilkerson and Leonard Williams both dealing with injuries early this season.
Other defenses that I like.
Seahawks
Bengals
Favorite Stack of the week (GPP's)- Dez Bryant and Dak Prescott- This is an offense that everyone is going to be gravitating towards Ezekiel Elliott and I will be doing the exact same in cash games, but in GPP's Dez has seen a significant number of red zone targets so far this season, but has not had the yardage. The good news is that Pierre Garcon had 7 receptions for 142 yards last week, so this is a prime opportunity for Dak and Dez to get right in this game.
Sunday, September 24, 2017
Week 3 Results- Need to do better
Officially a two-week losing streak after a good week one. I need to go back and look, but I feel last year, there was a little bit of a losing streak early before just getting hot for several weeks in a row. We'll learn from this week, get another data point, and get even better for upcoming weeks.
Admittedly, this could have been so much worse if the Raiders went off, as I was facing about 20% Derek Carr, 10% Michael Crabtree, and 10% Amari Cooper. Also had a nice GPP hit with two things I mentioned on the show that I do, the DFS Power Grid. Tom Brady had a nice game and Russell Wilson/Doug Baldwin had a nice game as well. I profited $100 in GPP's.
I could have been so much better if Kelvin Benjamin doesn't get hurt, as I lost 20% of my games by less than 8 points.
Starting Bankroll- $10,210
Amount invested Week 3- $1,250
Amount Won $740
Net Profit/Loss: -$510
New Bankroll- $9,700
On a side note, I don't typically post my GPP strategies, but can if there is interest. I won't be posting GPP lineups, but could do some strategy write-ups.
Admittedly, this could have been so much worse if the Raiders went off, as I was facing about 20% Derek Carr, 10% Michael Crabtree, and 10% Amari Cooper. Also had a nice GPP hit with two things I mentioned on the show that I do, the DFS Power Grid. Tom Brady had a nice game and Russell Wilson/Doug Baldwin had a nice game as well. I profited $100 in GPP's.
I could have been so much better if Kelvin Benjamin doesn't get hurt, as I lost 20% of my games by less than 8 points.
Starting Bankroll- $10,210
Amount invested Week 3- $1,250
Amount Won $740
Net Profit/Loss: -$510
New Bankroll- $9,700
On a side note, I don't typically post my GPP strategies, but can if there is interest. I won't be posting GPP lineups, but could do some strategy write-ups.
Matt Prater
What to do with Derrick Henry- Lineup Update
Moving off of Derrick Henry. For DeMarco Murray to be ruled as playing 5 hours before the game tells me he will be healthier than what I had thought he would be.
Updated lineup.
Updated lineup.
Answering Questions over on Sleeperbot.com
https://sleeperbot.com/channels/190250329785241600/217503087277895680
Saturday, September 23, 2017
Week 3 Lineup- TBD
The reason I have not posted a lineup is that there are about 7 injuries situations that will impact my lineups. I have posted a lineup below which is what we know as of this moment.
Here are our Dr. Jene Bramel's thoughts so far this week. Link
Janoris Jenkins- If he is out, Carson Wentz receives a significant upgrade.
Cam Newton- I want some sort of good news on his shoulder, when the coaches were saying that he will continue to have limited reps to manage his shoulder has me really worried that there is some sort of long-term injury.
DeMarco Murray- If he were to miss, Derrick Henry is a must play for me. It appears that Murray will be limited even if he's active.
Rob Kelley- If he were to miss, Samaje Perine gets a nice upgrade.
Jay Ajayi- I'm hopeful we get some sort of information on his injury, it looks like he's going to play but good news would be helpful. I may split him and Kareem Hunt if we do not get any encouraging news.
Myles Garrett- It sounds like he will miss another week, but if he somehow was available, the Browns defense would get an upgrade against this Indianapolis offensive line. The Browns are not going to rush Garrett into action, so when he plays I expect him to be fully ready to go.
Vontae Davis- It sounds like he is going to miss this week which is a nice upgrade for Rashard Higgins, I need to do more research to determine if I can start him.
As of this moment, here is my lineup.
Here are our Dr. Jene Bramel's thoughts so far this week. Link
Janoris Jenkins- If he is out, Carson Wentz receives a significant upgrade.
Cam Newton- I want some sort of good news on his shoulder, when the coaches were saying that he will continue to have limited reps to manage his shoulder has me really worried that there is some sort of long-term injury.
DeMarco Murray- If he were to miss, Derrick Henry is a must play for me. It appears that Murray will be limited even if he's active.
Rob Kelley- If he were to miss, Samaje Perine gets a nice upgrade.
Jay Ajayi- I'm hopeful we get some sort of information on his injury, it looks like he's going to play but good news would be helpful. I may split him and Kareem Hunt if we do not get any encouraging news.
Myles Garrett- It sounds like he will miss another week, but if he somehow was available, the Browns defense would get an upgrade against this Indianapolis offensive line. The Browns are not going to rush Garrett into action, so when he plays I expect him to be fully ready to go.
Vontae Davis- It sounds like he is going to miss this week which is a nice upgrade for Rashard Higgins, I need to do more research to determine if I can start him.
As of this moment, here is my lineup.
Friday, September 22, 2017
Heading into Week 3- Thoughts on Running Backs
Jay Ajayi is the top guy for me this week and I will be having 100% ownership in cash and GPP's.
Here is what we wrote up regarding the matchups, there's not much more I can add to this other than Muhammad Wilkerson is now extremely questionable which would make this defense extremely thin.
DOLPHINS RUSHING OFFENSE
The Jets run defense, once fearsome and prohibitive under Rex Ryan, is a true liability now. Last Sunday, Oakland backs managed to rack up 123 yards on just 24 rushes, to say nothing of Cordarrelle Patterson’s 57 yards and long touchdown. And the week before, LeSean McCoy picked up 110 yards with ease (22 carries). The unit is talented, but simply possess little reliability at the linebacker position. The gifted defensive line, headlined by Muhammad Wilkerson and Leonard Williams, can only do so much to control the action. Darron Lee and Demario Davis are mediocre run-stoppers at best; Lee lacks strength and awareness, while Davis is a subpar athlete that doesn’t pursue especially well. Lee could be a building-block type of playmaker, but struggles inside and probably needs a position switch.
The biggest thing that I am trying to get more clarity on today is what to do with Derrick Henry. I am starting to come around on the idea that even if DeMarco Murray is active, he is not going to be extremely healthy and this is Henry's offense to run with. So far this season teams have been effective running on the Seahawks as Carlos Hyde had 143 yards last week and Ty Montgomery had 93 yards in the season opener.
Other guys that I like this week (In order).
Kareem Hunt
Dalvin Cook
Ty Montgomery
LeVeon Bell
Here is what we wrote up regarding the matchups, there's not much more I can add to this other than Muhammad Wilkerson is now extremely questionable which would make this defense extremely thin.
DOLPHINS RUSHING OFFENSE
Great matchup vs. the Jets defense.
Jay Ajayi is emerging as the face of the Dolphins offense. He has a stranglehold on the Miami backfield, drawing 64 of 68 running back snaps in Week 1, and while his workload may settle over the course of the season, he’ll likely dominate both facets of the position. Ajayi looks fantastic, running with power – 82 of his 122 Week 1 yards came after contact, and he leads the NFL over the last 12 weeks – and nimble feet on the second level. It seems absurd that teams focused so much concern on his potential long-term knee woes; he’s a truly dynamic back, and the prospect of just a handful of seasons of him was easily worthy of a second-round pick. Still, there’s a reason Ajayi underperformed so often in 2016. The Dolphins’ line was fantastic against the Chargers’ quick front seven, but may struggle with varying opponents and cohesion from week to week.The biggest thing that I am trying to get more clarity on today is what to do with Derrick Henry. I am starting to come around on the idea that even if DeMarco Murray is active, he is not going to be extremely healthy and this is Henry's offense to run with. So far this season teams have been effective running on the Seahawks as Carlos Hyde had 143 yards last week and Ty Montgomery had 93 yards in the season opener.
Other guys that I like this week (In order).
Kareem Hunt
Dalvin Cook
Ty Montgomery
LeVeon Bell
Tuesday, September 19, 2017
Cash Game Selection-Head to Head vs 50/50's
Cash game Selection
For those that have been following along with the blog so far this year, you'll know that I mostly join head to head contests as my choice of contests for cash games. I have explained it a little bit in a few different posts but have not dedicated an entire post to it yet this season. The primary reason that I join head to head contests is to mitigate the risk caused by 50/50's and double ups. In 50/50's and double ups no matter how many you join it is an all or nothing strategy each week.
There is nothing worse than finishing in the 49th percentile of lineups in a 50/50 or Double Up and losing almost all of your money invested in a given week. Having this happen a few weeks in a row back in 2014, where I just missed the cut line in my 50/50's, I decided to make a change in the way that I am playing. I am able to get more of my bankroll in play each week if I join a high number of H2H games as the overall risk to my bankroll is lower since it is not an all or nothing strategy. Ultimately the downside of the decreased risk is the decreased upside, if I have a lineup that is in the 80th percentile, I am not going to win all of my contests, I am likely only going to win 80% of my contests, where a 50/50 I would win all of my contests. Ultimately, I am ok with the decreased upside for the decreased risk, as the goal is to grow the bankroll and not let a few bad weeks kill your season.
For those that have been following along with the blog so far this year, you'll know that I mostly join head to head contests as my choice of contests for cash games. I have explained it a little bit in a few different posts but have not dedicated an entire post to it yet this season. The primary reason that I join head to head contests is to mitigate the risk caused by 50/50's and double ups. In 50/50's and double ups no matter how many you join it is an all or nothing strategy each week.
There is nothing worse than finishing in the 49th percentile of lineups in a 50/50 or Double Up and losing almost all of your money invested in a given week. Having this happen a few weeks in a row back in 2014, where I just missed the cut line in my 50/50's, I decided to make a change in the way that I am playing. I am able to get more of my bankroll in play each week if I join a high number of H2H games as the overall risk to my bankroll is lower since it is not an all or nothing strategy. Ultimately the downside of the decreased risk is the decreased upside, if I have a lineup that is in the 80th percentile, I am not going to win all of my contests, I am likely only going to win 80% of my contests, where a 50/50 I would win all of my contests. Ultimately, I am ok with the decreased upside for the decreased risk, as the goal is to grow the bankroll and not let a few bad weeks kill your season.
A key example of this is week 2, in week 2 my lineup finished in about the 40th percentile in 50/50's and double ups consequently, I still won about 40% of my contests which had I joined only 50/50's I would have lost pretty much 100% of my investment.
Sunday, September 17, 2017
On to Next Week
Was looking good heading into this game, but no Montgomery is going to come back to haunt me. Had Montgomery as my third running back and went with two options I felt were safer.
Going to get about 40% of my investment back. Will post final numbers later.
Going to get about 40% of my investment back. Will post final numbers later.
Saturday, September 16, 2017
Week 2 Lineup
Here's my lineup and my thoughts this week on it. I started off not liking this week, but the more I dig into it the more that I like it for cash, but don't necessarily like it for GPP as everyone is going to be game stacking the New England/New Orleans and Green Bay/Atlanta games so game theory suggests going away from that ownership and taking other games, but there just is not other games and players that I like enough to go hard in GPPs this week. .
Current Bankroll- $10,242
Investment this week-
Cash- $1,600
GPP $100
Total- $1,700 (16.5% of bankroll)
I originally had Adam Thielen in this lineup and at one point had Stefon Diggs in a lineup, but at this point, I am not willing to take the chance that Sam Bradford does not play or does not play effectively even if he does play in this game.
Lineup Recap-
Going with Brady/Hogan stack largely because the cornerback matchup of Chris Hogan where he is going up against Da'Vante Harris who got absolutely torched by Adam Thielen last week out of the slot. This is a perfect spot for Hogan as even though he let a lot of people down week one, still was on the field more than any receiver in New England (73/81).
Running Backs-
Marshawn Lynch I wrote him up in my last post, he's my number one guy this week everywhere. Melvin Gordon looked impressive this week, and while some people are on Ty Montgomery at his cheap price, I just can't do Montgomery in cash. Miami was the 30th team against the run last year and they have not played a game this season, so this is a matchup that Gordon should be able to dominate.
Wide Receiver-
One of my favorite guys this week is Larry Fitzgerald this week. Who else are the Cardinals going to throw to now that John Brown is out for this game? Fitzgerald could very easily have 15 targets as he had 13 last game. This Colts defense is atrocious in the secondary without Vontae Davis, so this should be an opportunity for Fitzgerald to have a good game in this one.
Current Bankroll- $10,242
Investment this week-
Cash- $1,600
GPP $100
Total- $1,700 (16.5% of bankroll)
I originally had Adam Thielen in this lineup and at one point had Stefon Diggs in a lineup, but at this point, I am not willing to take the chance that Sam Bradford does not play or does not play effectively even if he does play in this game.
Lineup Recap-
Going with Brady/Hogan stack largely because the cornerback matchup of Chris Hogan where he is going up against Da'Vante Harris who got absolutely torched by Adam Thielen last week out of the slot. This is a perfect spot for Hogan as even though he let a lot of people down week one, still was on the field more than any receiver in New England (73/81).
Running Backs-
Marshawn Lynch I wrote him up in my last post, he's my number one guy this week everywhere. Melvin Gordon looked impressive this week, and while some people are on Ty Montgomery at his cheap price, I just can't do Montgomery in cash. Miami was the 30th team against the run last year and they have not played a game this season, so this is a matchup that Gordon should be able to dominate.
Wide Receiver-
One of my favorite guys this week is Larry Fitzgerald this week. Who else are the Cardinals going to throw to now that John Brown is out for this game? Fitzgerald could very easily have 15 targets as he had 13 last game. This Colts defense is atrocious in the secondary without Vontae Davis, so this should be an opportunity for Fitzgerald to have a good game in this one.
Friday, September 15, 2017
Heading into Week 2
A little bit late this week (apologies) I am trying to get the initial thoughts out there on Thursdays. Lineup will be posted tomorrow as always.
My thoughts on this week are pretty simple, for cash games target the games with the high expected totals. Green Bay/Atlanta and New England vs New Orleans.
This week is a little bit challenging because everyone is going to be targeting these games, so it is important that we hit on them. However, there is a clear differentiator that I will get to below art running back that will set these lineups apart.
At quarterback, this means Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan or Drew Brees. All excellent options this week. My preferred target in cash games is paying up for Tom Brady. The reasoning is pretty simple, but the Saints secondary is absolutely atrocious as evidenced by Sam Bradford throwing for 346 yards and 3 touchdowns last week. Pairing Brady with Chris Hogan is a great opportunity this week as Hogan is underpriced and while he did not have a great week one he will see a lot of P.J. Williams in the slot this week. Adam Thielen torched Williams out of the slot with 9 receptions and 157 yards this past week.
Marshawn Lynch Returns Home-
I spend a lot of my early week writing up our rushing/passing matchups which I feel are some of the best in the industry, for those that have not seen them, below is a snippet of the write-up.
As you read this matchup, ask yourself in a great matchup with Marshawn Lynch at his first home game in Oakland and the team is in a position to potentially have the lead is this a running back I want to target? For me, it is an absolute yes. This matchup is about perfect for Lynch as we saw what LeSean McCoy was able to do against the Jets last week.
RAIDERS RUSHING OFFENSE
The Jets struggled in week one against the run as the Bills were able to run all over the Jets in this game. The loss of Sheldon Richardson may be having an impact as the Jets allowed 190 yards rushing in this game which was the most in week one. This was against another very good run-blocking offensive line in the Buffalo Bills as the defensive line for the Jets and could see similar problems this week going up against Oakland. One of the big problems for the Jets was the play of the linebackers Darron Lee and Demario Davis as the Jets released David Harris in the offseason and appear to missing him. Lee is an undersized linebacker which could cause issues for the Jets in this game as he gives up almost 20 pounds to Marshawn Lynch.
My thoughts on this week are pretty simple, for cash games target the games with the high expected totals. Green Bay/Atlanta and New England vs New Orleans.
This week is a little bit challenging because everyone is going to be targeting these games, so it is important that we hit on them. However, there is a clear differentiator that I will get to below art running back that will set these lineups apart.
At quarterback, this means Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan or Drew Brees. All excellent options this week. My preferred target in cash games is paying up for Tom Brady. The reasoning is pretty simple, but the Saints secondary is absolutely atrocious as evidenced by Sam Bradford throwing for 346 yards and 3 touchdowns last week. Pairing Brady with Chris Hogan is a great opportunity this week as Hogan is underpriced and while he did not have a great week one he will see a lot of P.J. Williams in the slot this week. Adam Thielen torched Williams out of the slot with 9 receptions and 157 yards this past week.
Marshawn Lynch Returns Home-
I spend a lot of my early week writing up our rushing/passing matchups which I feel are some of the best in the industry, for those that have not seen them, below is a snippet of the write-up.
As you read this matchup, ask yourself in a great matchup with Marshawn Lynch at his first home game in Oakland and the team is in a position to potentially have the lead is this a running back I want to target? For me, it is an absolute yes. This matchup is about perfect for Lynch as we saw what LeSean McCoy was able to do against the Jets last week.
RAIDERS RUSHING OFFENSE
Great matchup vs. the Jets defense.
Marshawn Lynch looked terrific in his return to the NFL and in his first game in Oakland. Facing a very difficult matchup against Tennessee, Lynch continued with his physical running style to run for 76 yards on 18 carries. This is a great spot for Lynch to be in as he has the second-best run-blocking offensive line according to Matt Bitonti and is in a passing offense where he is not the focal point of the defense.Sunday, September 10, 2017
Final Results Week 1
Not a home run, but going to end up a few hundred. Brandon Marshall with 1 catch killed me.
Starting balance $10,000
Week 1 Invested $700
Week 1 Profit/Loss: +242
New Balance: $10,242
Great start to week one
Could use a big night from Marshall, but currently sitting at 109.48 at the moment and making about 50% profit which is great for week one although there is more upside if Marshall can go off. Bell and Johnson were extremely disappointing although highly owned week one.
Hopefully everything is going your way today.
Hopefully everything is going your way today.
Updated Cash Lineup
Making some changes. Didn't like Charles Clay and Kendall Wright after re-running my math as their floor was too low for cash. Still using that other lineup in GPP, but replacing Kendall Wright with Kevin White in that lineup.
Below is my cash game lineup for this week. Locked in.
Saturday, September 9, 2017
Sunday Morning Q&A- Sleeperbot App
For anyone who has not signed up for Sleeperbot (Free fantasy football app), our Footballguys staff will be on the Footballguys channel every Sunday morning for the two hours prior to lock answering any of your questions you may have related to DFS. We will be breaking down any changes based on injuries as well as answering your lineup questions.
Week 1 Cash Game Lineup and Thoughts
Below is my week one cash lineup.
This week of my $10,000 bankroll, I will be entering $700 worth of cash games and $150 worth of GPP's. Some notes about this lineup are below. This is a little bit higher than I otherwise would go, but I feel that there are some good GPP plays (see next post for my GPP core.
Running Back- This is a no brainer in cash, go Bell, Johnson with how soft the pricing is.
Wide Receiver- There's a lot of love for Larry Fitzgerald and for good reason as he will be matched up against a combination of D.J. Hayden and Quandre Diggs in the slot. Neither are great corners. Fitzgerald is not a guy that I typically target, but sometimes you just have to go with a guy in a great matchup who is going to be popular.
Kendall Wright is the wildcard in this lineup. Wright should be the number one guy in Chicago this week. The matchup is not great going up against Brian Poole, but he's simply too cheap for the amount of targets that he will receive.
Julio Jones/Antonio Brown- I will admit, I have not decided if I am going Jones or Brown this week, but I will be starting one of them. I am leaning Jones at the moment, and going with this stars/scrubs approach I feel is the best way to build a cash lineup this week as even though I will not get one of the expensive tight ends doing it this way, I feel that Jones could have a monster week one going up against a Bears secondary. Jones should see a lot of Marcus Cooper on the left side of the field which is a tremendous matchup and one of the best he will see all year.
The one thing that scares me here for both of these players is if their team gets up early will they just run the ball heavily.
Charles Clay/Zach Miller- I am leaning towards Clay over Miller at the moment, but will post back here if this changes.
I don't think anyone feels good about Charles Clay when they put him in their lineup, but ask yourself if Tyrod Taylor is going to throw the ball 30 times this week, how are those targets going to be distributed? Who does he have to throw to? Charles Clay had 57 catches last season and should see
Jaguars Defense- I love what the Jaguars did in the offseason with their defense, and will be starting them almost in every lineup GPP or cash this week. At $4,100 they're simply too cheap and have one of the best cornerback combinations in A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey in the NFL.
Friday, September 8, 2017
Detailed Breakdown- Quarterbacks
Quarterback-
There are a number of ways to go with the quarterback position this week, and to be honest I don't love any of them.
Aaron Rodgers- FADE-Rodgers is in a tough matchup going up against Seattle, and while Vegas does not seem worried about the matchup as the Packers are one of the highest projected scoring teams this week I can't start Rodgers. In his last three games against the Seahawks he has never thrown for over 250 yards against Pete Carroll in the regular season. At $8,300 he's a full fade for me this week.
Russell Wilson- GPP- Everything lines up for Wilson to have a good game this week as the Packers secondary has been atrocious over the last few seasons. Yes, they drafted Kevin King in the second round, but I'm not buying that he will improve this secondary in his first season. The problem with Wilson is that he has struggled mightily against the Packers, as he threw for just 240 yards 1 touchdown and 5 interceptions last year and 240 yards was his career high in the regular season against the Packers. Could he turn it around this week? Sure, but I'm not putting him in my cash game lineup.
Marcus Mariota- GPP Viable- I haven't finished my cash lineup yet, but Marcus Mariota will be one of the more popular quarterbacks this week. The issue I have with Mariota is that he has these games where he just does not show up. He threw for under 250 yards 8 times last year and he did not run as much as people think only running for 349 yards and 2 touchdowns. This has me concerned in cash games as in cash games I would not start him based on this bust rate being so high. He looked horrible in his last preseason game consistently overthrowing wide receivers as he was 12-21.
Carson Wentz- Cash Game Viable- I am putting myself out on a limb here recommending to play Carson Wentz in cash games. There are a few different reasons for this, the first is that he is cheap, you'll see in subsequent posts, I want to spend up at other positions primarily for Julio Jones, David Johnson and Le'Veon Bell in cash. Going Wentz allows me to do this. The second reason I like Wentz is that he is a volume quarterback, in cash games I want my guy throwing early and often and Wentz threw the ball 607 times last season. I expect this number to stay the same if not go up while him being more efficient while throwing heading into his second season. The third is the matchup. The Redskins even with Josh Norman last year were 25th in terms of pass defense. This is a matchup that Wentz should be able to be productive and not kill you which 270 yards and two touchdowns is all we are looking at with this price.
There are a number of ways to go with the quarterback position this week, and to be honest I don't love any of them.
Aaron Rodgers- FADE-Rodgers is in a tough matchup going up against Seattle, and while Vegas does not seem worried about the matchup as the Packers are one of the highest projected scoring teams this week I can't start Rodgers. In his last three games against the Seahawks he has never thrown for over 250 yards against Pete Carroll in the regular season. At $8,300 he's a full fade for me this week.
Russell Wilson- GPP- Everything lines up for Wilson to have a good game this week as the Packers secondary has been atrocious over the last few seasons. Yes, they drafted Kevin King in the second round, but I'm not buying that he will improve this secondary in his first season. The problem with Wilson is that he has struggled mightily against the Packers, as he threw for just 240 yards 1 touchdown and 5 interceptions last year and 240 yards was his career high in the regular season against the Packers. Could he turn it around this week? Sure, but I'm not putting him in my cash game lineup.
Marcus Mariota- GPP Viable- I haven't finished my cash lineup yet, but Marcus Mariota will be one of the more popular quarterbacks this week. The issue I have with Mariota is that he has these games where he just does not show up. He threw for under 250 yards 8 times last year and he did not run as much as people think only running for 349 yards and 2 touchdowns. This has me concerned in cash games as in cash games I would not start him based on this bust rate being so high. He looked horrible in his last preseason game consistently overthrowing wide receivers as he was 12-21.
Carson Wentz- Cash Game Viable- I am putting myself out on a limb here recommending to play Carson Wentz in cash games. There are a few different reasons for this, the first is that he is cheap, you'll see in subsequent posts, I want to spend up at other positions primarily for Julio Jones, David Johnson and Le'Veon Bell in cash. Going Wentz allows me to do this. The second reason I like Wentz is that he is a volume quarterback, in cash games I want my guy throwing early and often and Wentz threw the ball 607 times last season. I expect this number to stay the same if not go up while him being more efficient while throwing heading into his second season. The third is the matchup. The Redskins even with Josh Norman last year were 25th in terms of pass defense. This is a matchup that Wentz should be able to be productive and not kill you which 270 yards and two touchdowns is all we are looking at with this price.
Breaking Down Week 1
Disclaimer: This blog is primarily advice for FanDuel, and while the player analysis will typically hold true, the strategy may not due to the various pricing of other sites.
We are finally here for week one, and I am extremely excited to have another great year with you guys. Lineup analysis will be posted tonight/tomorrow as I have some more work to do to break this down further.
Starting Bankroll- $10,000
You maybe asking yourself why I am using $10,000 as my bankroll. The reality is that you do not need a bankroll anywhere close to $10,000 to find this blog valuable, but it is a nice round number that you can make similar decisions as what I am doing. Regardless of what your bankroll is, it is easy to scale down appropriately.
Week One Bankroll Advice-
We will get into it in the next post, but for cash games this week, we need to be careful. The reason that we need to be careful is due to the number of overlap that will be in the lineups this week. It is going to be extremely popular in cash games to start both Le'Veon Bell and David Johnson at the running back position this week, which is something that I will be doing as well. If you're playing GPPs I suggest playing head to head games rather than 50/50's and double ups especially for week one as you still have some inexperienced players playing who may go away from Bell/Johnson and try to take another running back.
What this does present itself with is a nice GPP opportunity. We have ownership projections here which are free for week one if you sign up for a free account. Looking at these, Bell and Johnson in GPPs are projected to be 42% and 39% owned. Going with a wide receiver heavy strategy in GPPs this week is not a bad way to be contrarian as there are some concerns with Bell coming off of essentially no preseason to immediately be a starter.
I typically hover between 90% cash games and 10% GPPS most weeks but this week I am likely going to go with 80% cash games and 20% GPP and likely do 100% Bell/Johnson in cash and just play Johnson in GPP going with different running backs other than Bell.
Full lineup advice to come later in the day.
We are finally here for week one, and I am extremely excited to have another great year with you guys. Lineup analysis will be posted tonight/tomorrow as I have some more work to do to break this down further.
Starting Bankroll- $10,000
You maybe asking yourself why I am using $10,000 as my bankroll. The reality is that you do not need a bankroll anywhere close to $10,000 to find this blog valuable, but it is a nice round number that you can make similar decisions as what I am doing. Regardless of what your bankroll is, it is easy to scale down appropriately.
Week One Bankroll Advice-
We will get into it in the next post, but for cash games this week, we need to be careful. The reason that we need to be careful is due to the number of overlap that will be in the lineups this week. It is going to be extremely popular in cash games to start both Le'Veon Bell and David Johnson at the running back position this week, which is something that I will be doing as well. If you're playing GPPs I suggest playing head to head games rather than 50/50's and double ups especially for week one as you still have some inexperienced players playing who may go away from Bell/Johnson and try to take another running back.
What this does present itself with is a nice GPP opportunity. We have ownership projections here which are free for week one if you sign up for a free account. Looking at these, Bell and Johnson in GPPs are projected to be 42% and 39% owned. Going with a wide receiver heavy strategy in GPPs this week is not a bad way to be contrarian as there are some concerns with Bell coming off of essentially no preseason to immediately be a starter.
I typically hover between 90% cash games and 10% GPPS most weeks but this week I am likely going to go with 80% cash games and 20% GPP and likely do 100% Bell/Johnson in cash and just play Johnson in GPP going with different running backs other than Bell.
Full lineup advice to come later in the day.
Monday, September 4, 2017
The Journey Season 2
Last year was a subpar year by my standards. Many people profited off of this, and hopefully you were one of them. I profited as well, but not nearly where I want to be. My goal each year is to come close to double my investment which last year we only had about 11% profit.
Why am I doing this? It's really simple to help give people an inside look into someone who is working to grow their bankroll. Far too often we blindly listen to people with a microphone or that are in front of the keyboard without knowing their DFS situation. The reality is that everyone expects that whoever has a keyboard or a microphone is a winning player and that simply is untrue. I am also one of those people who has a keyboard and a microphone at Footballguys.com, and it took me a while but the last three seasons I have been profitable including a tremendous 2015.
A little bit about me, this is the seventh season that I have been playing DFS, and I am mostly a high stakes head to head player, I love the competition of facing one person head on and let the best roster win. There will be some of that in this blog, but for the most part, I am going to make this as relatable as I can, I will be evaluating rosters both my own and my opponents, giving you tips, and having some fun along the way.
Why am I doing this? It's really simple to help give people an inside look into someone who is working to grow their bankroll. Far too often we blindly listen to people with a microphone or that are in front of the keyboard without knowing their DFS situation. The reality is that everyone expects that whoever has a keyboard or a microphone is a winning player and that simply is untrue. I am also one of those people who has a keyboard and a microphone at Footballguys.com, and it took me a while but the last three seasons I have been profitable including a tremendous 2015.
A little bit about me, this is the seventh season that I have been playing DFS, and I am mostly a high stakes head to head player, I love the competition of facing one person head on and let the best roster win. There will be some of that in this blog, but for the most part, I am going to make this as relatable as I can, I will be evaluating rosters both my own and my opponents, giving you tips, and having some fun along the way.
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