Friday, September 29, 2017

Heading into Week 4

Took a little bit of a mental break after the loss last week to gather myself and re-group, but am back and ready to go for Week 4. More to come on this week, but here are my initial thoughts.

My official value rankings are located here.

Quarterback- 
I think I will be gravitating to Russell Wilson this week even though Vontae Davis is likely to play in this game. The Colts secondary has been awful so far this year and while adding Davis helps, but for a  week that we're going to try to save salary, Wilson is about $600 too cheap compared to where he should be.

A lot of people like Carson Palmer this week at $7,400 and DeShaun Watson at $7,300. I can't-do either in cash, to be honest. I like Palmer more than Watson, but at the end of the day, I am unable to get past the first few weeks where Palmer really struggled. Watson, I have a harder time understanding as outside of a game against a bad New England secondary, he has not thrown for over 125 yards in his other two games. Watson is a nice GPP play as he has rushing touchdown upside.

Other quarterbacks that I like-
Tom Brady
Marcus Mariota (GPP)- Houston's secondary is an absolute mess right now

Running Back
Ezekiel Elliott is going to be the chalk this week and for good reason, as this Rams rush defense has been absolutely atrocious so far this year. They allowed Rob Kelley (aka Fat Rob) to run for 6.5 yards per carry and Carlos Hyde to score his only two touchdowns of the year. This is a get right game for Elliott in this game.

Other running backs I like:
Todd Gurley (Volume in passing game has been a nice floor for Gurley
Joe Mixon is too cheap at $5,600 going up against a Browns team that is likely going to be without Jamie Collins and could be without Danny Shelton the former first-round defensive tackle.

Wide Receiver: 
It's hard not to love A.J. Green this week. He has over 100 yards receiving in four of his last six games against Cleveland and has a touchdown in three of his last six games. This is a prime matchup that Green should be able to exploit.

Other wide receivers I like:
Emmanuel Sanders- Big fan of Sanders this week as he will be going up against David Amerson who has struggled so far this year.
Doug Baldwin- Vontae Davis will play, but the Seahawks line Baldwin up all over the field and Davis is not typically a shadow corner so Baldwin will be able to take advantage of this secondary.
Larry Fitzgerald- Fitzgerald will be one of the highest owned receivers based on his Monday Night performance where he had 13 receptions for 149 yards and a touchdown. If you're in GPP's fading him could be a great option as in his two games prior to Monday Night Football, he had less than 100 total yards.

Defense- J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets. Yes, this is likely crazy, but they're facing Blake Bortles, who is a quarterback who frequently turns the ball over. The Jaguars were in London last week and this is a key let down spot for them after they beat the Ravens 44-7. The Jets are finally getting healthy on their defensive line with Muhammad Wilkerson and Leonard Williams both dealing with injuries early this season.
Other defenses that I like.
Seahawks
Bengals

Favorite Stack of the week (GPP's)- Dez Bryant and Dak Prescott- This is an offense that everyone is going to be gravitating towards Ezekiel Elliott and I will be doing the exact same in cash games, but in GPP's Dez has seen a significant number of red zone targets so far this season, but has not had the yardage. The good news is that Pierre Garcon had 7 receptions for 142 yards last week, so this is a prime opportunity for Dak and Dez to get right in this game.

3 comments:

  1. How do you feel about playing a RB and WR from the same team when The RB is so cheap, IE Mixon and Green? Usually I avoid that negative correlation play. I do diversify my lineups,especially, in different slates plus this tandem let's me finally get Ertz in a lineup, finally.

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  2. Im strongly considering starting Zeke and Gurley. But since those teams square off against each other Im not sure if there's a neg correlation or not

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  3. There typically is negative correlation as if one team gets ahead early the number of carries for the other team decreases, but in Gurley's case since so much of his volume comes from passing, I don't feel that his touches will decrease.

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