Currently at 119, with the Steelers to go, should be another good day.
Update: That Juju Smith-Schuster TD hurt
Update: That Juju Smith-Schuster TD hurt
Sunday, October 29, 2017
It's not how you start, it's how you finish.
Was looking bad early on with Michael Thomas and Kelvin Benjamin starting slow, but what a finish.
Saturday, October 28, 2017
Update 24 Hours before Kickoff- Weather
We're about 24 hours before kickoff (maybe a little less)
I will be answering questions primarily on our DFS Power Grid channel where I talk about Andy Dalton for seemingly half the show. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65a8r1brrAw&t=668s
Weather-
Two games are scaring me off of them this week.
The first is the obvious one which is Philadelphia and San Francisco where we could see 1-2 inches of rain in this game. Rain often times isn't a big deal, but this much rain scares me especially on a field that is real grass which is the case in Philadelphia. I still think the Eagles are in a great spot in GPP's, but in cash it really worries me. Vegas has made a significant change to the over/under as they have dropped this game from 47.5 to 44.5.
The other game that I have my eye on is the wind in this Carolina vs Tampa Bay game. There are mixed reports about what this wind might actually be, I've seen spots where it is 21mph sustained which makes me nervous, but looking at it at the moment it's showing 10-15mph which does not scare me.
Lineup
Here is where I am currently at. The more I have looked into it, the more I have liked the Steelers defense as their passing defense is one of the best in football, they are in the top ten in sacks and the Lions are in the top 10 in sacks allowed.
Regarding Kittle, I actually think that the rain should help Kittle as Beathard will be looking to his college teammate more than the deep threats like Marquise Goodwin who has seen a significant number of targets recently.
One of Benjamin or Alshon Jeffery will likely be in my lineups this week. If the wind is high in this Tampa Bay game, I will change this to Jeffery, as in the rain I feel that the Eagles will go to the big receiver in Jeffery instead of some of their speed receivers like Agholor.
I will be answering questions primarily on our DFS Power Grid channel where I talk about Andy Dalton for seemingly half the show. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65a8r1brrAw&t=668s
Weather-
Two games are scaring me off of them this week.
The first is the obvious one which is Philadelphia and San Francisco where we could see 1-2 inches of rain in this game. Rain often times isn't a big deal, but this much rain scares me especially on a field that is real grass which is the case in Philadelphia. I still think the Eagles are in a great spot in GPP's, but in cash it really worries me. Vegas has made a significant change to the over/under as they have dropped this game from 47.5 to 44.5.
The other game that I have my eye on is the wind in this Carolina vs Tampa Bay game. There are mixed reports about what this wind might actually be, I've seen spots where it is 21mph sustained which makes me nervous, but looking at it at the moment it's showing 10-15mph which does not scare me.
Lineup
Here is where I am currently at. The more I have looked into it, the more I have liked the Steelers defense as their passing defense is one of the best in football, they are in the top ten in sacks and the Lions are in the top 10 in sacks allowed.
Regarding Kittle, I actually think that the rain should help Kittle as Beathard will be looking to his college teammate more than the deep threats like Marquise Goodwin who has seen a significant number of targets recently.
One of Benjamin or Alshon Jeffery will likely be in my lineups this week. If the wind is high in this Tampa Bay game, I will change this to Jeffery, as in the rain I feel that the Eagles will go to the big receiver in Jeffery instead of some of their speed receivers like Agholor.
Friday, October 27, 2017
Week 8 Preview- Week 7 Recap
Apologies for the late post, have had a very crazy week.
Week 7 ended up not great, not bad. I was up $125 total last week which could always be worse. This puts me up to $12,449 on the season.
This week, weather once again is going to be an issue particularly in Philadelphia. Currently, I love the Eagles passing game in this one whether it be Wentz, Jeffery or Agholor, but the game could see some significant rain and if that were to impact the game would have me off of all of those guys. How am I handling this? I'm keeping an eye on the Vegas line, I'm not a meteorologist and they have better experts and historical data as far as how certain wind and rain impact a game so if the line drops 2 points or more I start to get scared.
Regarding lineups and bankroll, I will be playing my typical volume which is about 13% ($1,625) of my bankroll in cash and 1.5% ($200) of my bankroll in GPP's, but I am splitting this 50/50 as far the Sunday morning slate-Monday slate and the Main slate.
The reason for this is that I have the Vikings as by far the number one overall defense for me this week. In that slate, I am playing 50/50's and double ups only as I want exposure to teams who will not take the Vikings defense where a majority of the head to heads playing that slate will likely have the Vikings. On that slate, I also like Demaryius Thomas.
Now let's get to the main slate. Here is my main lineup. As you can see it is subject to change based on the weather as I have Wentz and Agholor included in this.
Week 7 ended up not great, not bad. I was up $125 total last week which could always be worse. This puts me up to $12,449 on the season.
This week, weather once again is going to be an issue particularly in Philadelphia. Currently, I love the Eagles passing game in this one whether it be Wentz, Jeffery or Agholor, but the game could see some significant rain and if that were to impact the game would have me off of all of those guys. How am I handling this? I'm keeping an eye on the Vegas line, I'm not a meteorologist and they have better experts and historical data as far as how certain wind and rain impact a game so if the line drops 2 points or more I start to get scared.
Regarding lineups and bankroll, I will be playing my typical volume which is about 13% ($1,625) of my bankroll in cash and 1.5% ($200) of my bankroll in GPP's, but I am splitting this 50/50 as far the Sunday morning slate-Monday slate and the Main slate.
The reason for this is that I have the Vikings as by far the number one overall defense for me this week. In that slate, I am playing 50/50's and double ups only as I want exposure to teams who will not take the Vikings defense where a majority of the head to heads playing that slate will likely have the Vikings. On that slate, I also like Demaryius Thomas.
Now let's get to the main slate. Here is my main lineup. As you can see it is subject to change based on the weather as I have Wentz and Agholor included in this.
Sunday, October 22, 2017
Making a change- Rain
I'm not normally a rain guy, but this doesn't look good. I still think it's relatively light, and am still going with Michael Thomas, but swapping out to Dak. Here's to hoping that it doesn't come back to haunt me like it did last week.
https://twitter.com/KevinRothWx/status/922127647576154112
This is officially a weird week.
https://twitter.com/KevinRothWx/status/922127647576154112
This is officially a weird week.
Week 7 Cash Lineup
Going a little bit lighter than normal on this one, but still like it quite a bit.
Saturday, October 21, 2017
This Week-Injuries Change Everything- Bankroll Update
Current Bankroll after last week is down to $12,324 after a tough week where I did not win hardly anything.
This week, everything is dictated off of injury situations that you need to keep an eye on. At this point it is hard to even put a lineup in as one or two of these injuries can change everything.
With that said, I haven't entered a single contest yet and likely won't be doing that until tomorrow morning once we start to get a sense of what injuries there may be. If there are only a few that is ideal and I will enter the same amount of contests that I normally do. If it is a mess with injuries, I scale my action way back, as I have been burned by great value plays before.
Running Backs-
DeMarco Murray (Hamstring)- If he is out, in cash games Derrick Henry is a top play, and a fade for me in GPP's due to how popular Henry will be. If Murray is active, you could look to Henry as a GPP play and assume that Murray will be limited, but the matchup is a tough one this week against a good CLE run defense.
Leonard Fournette (Ankle)- This one is interesting as Leonard Fournette did not practice all week. If he is out, you could look at Chris Ivory as a potentially interesting play in GPP's.
Melvin Gordon (Shoulder)- It looks like Gordon will play, but if for some reason he did not, Brandon Oliver could be used in GPP's.
Wide Receiver-
Stefon Diggs (Groin)- Diggs is questionable, but it appears unlikely he will go. Adam Thielen once again should be considered due to all the targets he has been getting without Diggs in the lineup.
Keenan Allen (Shoulder)- It looks like Keenan Allen will play, but he is questionable. Allen is not really a guy that we are targeting in a tough matchup against Denver, it could help someone like Hunter Henry if he missed, although slightly.
DeVante Parker (Ankle)- Parker is doubtful, which means Jarvis Landry should be considered once again for this Miami Dolphins team.
Marqise Lee (Knee)- Lee is questionable if he was unable to go Allen Hurns becomes a tremendous cheap option for this Jaguars team in a good matchup.
Jordan Matthews (Thumb)- It appears unlikely that Jordan Matthews will play, this Bills team is in a great matchup but have no one to throw to in this game. This likely helps LeSean McCoy if anyone as he will catch more passes out of the backfield as we saw last week.
Tight End
Delanie Walker (Calf)- Walker is the big one that we're watching from a tight end position, as more and more signs are pointing towards he does not play although he is still listed as questionable. If he does not play, Jonnu Smith becomes one of the top tight ends on this slate in terms of value plays.
This week, everything is dictated off of injury situations that you need to keep an eye on. At this point it is hard to even put a lineup in as one or two of these injuries can change everything.
With that said, I haven't entered a single contest yet and likely won't be doing that until tomorrow morning once we start to get a sense of what injuries there may be. If there are only a few that is ideal and I will enter the same amount of contests that I normally do. If it is a mess with injuries, I scale my action way back, as I have been burned by great value plays before.
Running Backs-
DeMarco Murray (Hamstring)- If he is out, in cash games Derrick Henry is a top play, and a fade for me in GPP's due to how popular Henry will be. If Murray is active, you could look to Henry as a GPP play and assume that Murray will be limited, but the matchup is a tough one this week against a good CLE run defense.
Leonard Fournette (Ankle)- This one is interesting as Leonard Fournette did not practice all week. If he is out, you could look at Chris Ivory as a potentially interesting play in GPP's.
Melvin Gordon (Shoulder)- It looks like Gordon will play, but if for some reason he did not, Brandon Oliver could be used in GPP's.
Wide Receiver-
Stefon Diggs (Groin)- Diggs is questionable, but it appears unlikely he will go. Adam Thielen once again should be considered due to all the targets he has been getting without Diggs in the lineup.
Keenan Allen (Shoulder)- It looks like Keenan Allen will play, but he is questionable. Allen is not really a guy that we are targeting in a tough matchup against Denver, it could help someone like Hunter Henry if he missed, although slightly.
DeVante Parker (Ankle)- Parker is doubtful, which means Jarvis Landry should be considered once again for this Miami Dolphins team.
Marqise Lee (Knee)- Lee is questionable if he was unable to go Allen Hurns becomes a tremendous cheap option for this Jaguars team in a good matchup.
Jordan Matthews (Thumb)- It appears unlikely that Jordan Matthews will play, this Bills team is in a great matchup but have no one to throw to in this game. This likely helps LeSean McCoy if anyone as he will catch more passes out of the backfield as we saw last week.
Tight End
Delanie Walker (Calf)- Walker is the big one that we're watching from a tight end position, as more and more signs are pointing towards he does not play although he is still listed as questionable. If he does not play, Jonnu Smith becomes one of the top tight ends on this slate in terms of value plays.
Friday, October 20, 2017
Using late swap effectively
This is going to be a long blog, but I hope you find it valuable.
It's been a while since we had an overall strategy piece, so let's jump right into it. With FanDuel adding late swap this season, it can provide a tremendous advantage to you if you play your cards right. How much late swap can actually help you depends on the type of contest. If it is a head to head and you realize that your remaining players are the same as your opponent, then it can take you from a 0% chance to win to a 30-35% chance to win in that contest.
Let's start by understanding when to use late swap. Late swap is best used in a situation heading into the 4PM or Sunday Night games when you are looking to increase your odds of winning. This can either be from a position of strength, or from a position of weakness and needing to catch up. The reality is that most people do not late swap when they are building their lineups especially if they are currently winning, which I am here to say that is effectively a mistake.
If you're behind:
This is where late swap is the most beneficial. You're in a 50/50 or in a head to head cash game and you realize that you're behind. Maybe one of his players had a great day, maybe some of your players did not have a great day. What I do, is I try to reverse engineer my opponents lineup. I know who he has that has played already, so I add up all of the salaries of those players, and then I try to figure out who my opponent has the highest likelihood of having in his starting lineup remaining. In 50/50's it's a little bit more difficult, but just start scrolling through opposing teams and see how many people might have a high owned running back that you have on your team.
Now that I have my best what my opponent(s) lineups or ownership looks like. It's time to make a decision. In head-to-heads it is rather easy, if I am behind and I have the exact same remaining players as an opponent, I need to make a change. If I have the majority of my players as the same as my opponent, I likely also need a change. Where it gets a little bit more tricky is that if I have a small number of players that are the same, this is where you need to decide on that individual players involved.
Great, you've now identified that you need to make a late swap, now what? The answer is relatively simple, what I typically do is I take either my projections or the projections on footballguys.com and determine what is a swap combination that from a projection standpoint gets me within a few points of my original lineup using players that also have upside built in.
For example, in this scenario below let's say you come to the realization that you will likely have the same two players LeVeon Bell and Jamison Crowder. Instead of just riding with LeVeon Bell and Jamison Crowder, swapping out to Antonio Brown and Carlos Hyde would net you a projected 0.3 points less. However, what that 0.3 points is the most likely scenario, but you also have to consider Antonio Brown's upside, and Crowder's downside, so instead of being blocked swapping to those two players increases your chance of winning from 0% to some percentage that while it is still less than 50% getting a few wins per year out of late swap can pay dividends. The reason I bolded that part is that it is important to realize that late swapping will rarely if ever make you a favorite in a contest, it will just increase your theoretical chances of winning.
If you are winning/off to a great start:
First of all congratulations, you hit on all of your 1PM starters. Don't count your money just yet as while you're in a good spot, be honest with yourself in evaluating your lineup. For example, last week if Jamison Crowder was a 4PM start time and I was ahead, it would have been advantageous for me to make a change to that lineup as ultimately Crowder has shown a tendency this year that his floor is close to 0 which could kill your lineup. Instead sometimes make a late swap to a player with a higher floor can be a smart play so that you avoid that risk of one of your players killing your lineup.
Also, as a quick GPP note, if you're off to a great start, it is the exact opposite. Now is the time to make critical decisions on whether you want to go for a win, or go for a solid cash. For example, look at the other teams around you, while you're off to a great start, are there people who have less players played or players at a cheaper salary ahead of you? If there are then you need to decide whether you want to go with a higher upside lineup that is more risky to potentially surpass those people. One great option is to late swap to a stack of some variety.
It's been a while since we had an overall strategy piece, so let's jump right into it. With FanDuel adding late swap this season, it can provide a tremendous advantage to you if you play your cards right. How much late swap can actually help you depends on the type of contest. If it is a head to head and you realize that your remaining players are the same as your opponent, then it can take you from a 0% chance to win to a 30-35% chance to win in that contest.
Let's start by understanding when to use late swap. Late swap is best used in a situation heading into the 4PM or Sunday Night games when you are looking to increase your odds of winning. This can either be from a position of strength, or from a position of weakness and needing to catch up. The reality is that most people do not late swap when they are building their lineups especially if they are currently winning, which I am here to say that is effectively a mistake.
If you're behind:
This is where late swap is the most beneficial. You're in a 50/50 or in a head to head cash game and you realize that you're behind. Maybe one of his players had a great day, maybe some of your players did not have a great day. What I do, is I try to reverse engineer my opponents lineup. I know who he has that has played already, so I add up all of the salaries of those players, and then I try to figure out who my opponent has the highest likelihood of having in his starting lineup remaining. In 50/50's it's a little bit more difficult, but just start scrolling through opposing teams and see how many people might have a high owned running back that you have on your team.
Now that I have my best what my opponent(s) lineups or ownership looks like. It's time to make a decision. In head-to-heads it is rather easy, if I am behind and I have the exact same remaining players as an opponent, I need to make a change. If I have the majority of my players as the same as my opponent, I likely also need a change. Where it gets a little bit more tricky is that if I have a small number of players that are the same, this is where you need to decide on that individual players involved.
Great, you've now identified that you need to make a late swap, now what? The answer is relatively simple, what I typically do is I take either my projections or the projections on footballguys.com and determine what is a swap combination that from a projection standpoint gets me within a few points of my original lineup using players that also have upside built in.
For example, in this scenario below let's say you come to the realization that you will likely have the same two players LeVeon Bell and Jamison Crowder. Instead of just riding with LeVeon Bell and Jamison Crowder, swapping out to Antonio Brown and Carlos Hyde would net you a projected 0.3 points less. However, what that 0.3 points is the most likely scenario, but you also have to consider Antonio Brown's upside, and Crowder's downside, so instead of being blocked swapping to those two players increases your chance of winning from 0% to some percentage that while it is still less than 50% getting a few wins per year out of late swap can pay dividends. The reason I bolded that part is that it is important to realize that late swapping will rarely if ever make you a favorite in a contest, it will just increase your theoretical chances of winning.
If you are winning/off to a great start:
First of all congratulations, you hit on all of your 1PM starters. Don't count your money just yet as while you're in a good spot, be honest with yourself in evaluating your lineup. For example, last week if Jamison Crowder was a 4PM start time and I was ahead, it would have been advantageous for me to make a change to that lineup as ultimately Crowder has shown a tendency this year that his floor is close to 0 which could kill your lineup. Instead sometimes make a late swap to a player with a higher floor can be a smart play so that you avoid that risk of one of your players killing your lineup.
Also, as a quick GPP note, if you're off to a great start, it is the exact opposite. Now is the time to make critical decisions on whether you want to go for a win, or go for a solid cash. For example, look at the other teams around you, while you're off to a great start, are there people who have less players played or players at a cheaper salary ahead of you? If there are then you need to decide whether you want to go with a higher upside lineup that is more risky to potentially surpass those people. One great option is to late swap to a stack of some variety.
Sunday, October 15, 2017
Sometimes it just doesn't work out
Swapping off of McKinnon to Buck Allen this morning is going to hurt. Damage control now, hopefully Hunt goes for 30+.
Glad I mentioned that I was dialing it back this week that is going to save me.
Glad I mentioned that I was dialing it back this week that is going to save me.
My Favorite GPP Play this Week
Rob Gronkowski. Going to go underowned and all of the cheap tight ends have major question marks around them.
Answering Questions for the next hour on the Power Grid Youtube Channel
So the Sleeperbot thing we tried was a disaster a few weeks ago as people had to download an app or their site did not work.
All five of us from the DFS Power Grid will be answering questions up until lock today whether it is fantasy football or DFS questions stop in and we'll help you out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkrnk1dxMvI&t=680s
All five of us from the DFS Power Grid will be answering questions up until lock today whether it is fantasy football or DFS questions stop in and we'll help you out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkrnk1dxMvI&t=680s
Sunday Morning Update
I'm investing less than I typically do this week, only about $1,200 in cash games and $100 in GPP's. I just can't get a great grasp of lineups as there are so many players who are similar.
Making some small adjustments to fit in Buck Allen over McKinnon, Kittle over Engram (I just don't trust the Giants offense) and had to downgrade to Dawson over Hopkins.
Saturday, October 14, 2017
Evaluating Wide Receivers
We have covered running backs in the last post, but now I want to spend a little bit of time on some wide receivers that I am considering.
Wide Receiver
DeAndre Hopkins- Hopkins will be the most popular this week and for good reason, but I have some concerns about him especially in GPP's. Jason McCourty is ranked as one of the top cornerbacks in football from Pro Football Focus, and a lot of his work last week was late when the game was already over and the Texans were trailing. This week, the Texans will be out to a lead late and will not be throwing nearly as much. He's still one of the top guys this week and is a nice play in cash, but am starting to get off of him in GPP's.
Julio Jones- I love Julio Jones this week. Mohamed Sanu is out for this game, and the Falcons are going up against a Dolphins team that has allowed 299.5 yards per game in their two games against the Chargers and the Saints. Their overall stats look better than what they should as they have played Matt Cassell and Josh McCown in two of their four games. This is a great matchup for Jones as he will matchup primarily against Xavien Howard who has really struggled so far this season.
DeSean Jackson- I'm not convinced I can use DeSean Jackson in cash games but I love him this week and am starting to think he is cash game viable. This is a Cardinals defense this season that has been routinely burnt on big plays. Week one, Kenny Golladay had a 45-yard touchdown, Brice Butler in week 3 had a 53-yard touchdown, and then last week Torrey Smith had a 59-yard touchdown and Nelson Agholor had a 72-yard touchdown. Notice, we did not mention Golden Tate, Dez Bryant or Alshon Jeffery? That's largely because Patrick Peterson has been tremendous in coverage but it is their secondary corners that have largely struggled. Jackson is up and down, but this is tremendous matchup and at just $6,400 is a great price.
Michael Crabtree- For the time being, we no longer have to decide if we want to start Amari Cooper or Michael Crabtree as that question has largely been answered. Cooper has just four receptions in his last three games and appears to have fallen out of favor after week one where they threw the ball to him on three straight plays inside the ten yard line and he dropped three touchdowns. The matchup is a tough one for Crabtree going up against Casey Hayward, but Hayward allowed two touchdowns last week showing that he is vulnerable. Crabtree is not a guy that I love this week, but he is at least being considered as his price is not bad at only $7,000.
Adam Thielen- Stefon Diggs is out this week which means that Thielen should get some extra work and extra targets. On full PPR sites, I love Thielen this week, but on FanDuel where it is just 0.5 PPR, it is hard to make the case for him as he has not scored a touchdown this season and outside of his 9/157 game against the Saints week one, he does not have a game over 100 yards.
Some cheap wide receivers I like.
Jamison Crowder
Kenny Stills (If DeVante Parker is out), although I will be unliekly playing him in cash
Ricardo Louis
Friday, October 13, 2017
Heading into Week 6 Part 1
It's hard to believe that we are already 35% of the way through the season after this week as it feels like we've only just begun. This week is actually a pretty exciting week, as there are a number of directions that we can go as we build our lineups.
I have a ton to say about this week, so I am releasing this in two parts.
Bankroll Strategy-
This week it is very tempting for me to go bigger than usual as I am coming off of two consecutive very solid weeks and the bankroll is doing well. However, I actually think that I am going to dial it back just a little bit, and the reason I am considering doing that is as you'll see over the next couple of days there is really two strategies to building lineups this week it is spend up on running backs who have great matchups or spend up on receivers who have great matchups. This leaves me with a dilemma, on most weeks it is very easy to build my cash lineups based on my process, but at the moment I have about 12 cash lineups that are currently viable which means that there are more combinations that I feel could beat the lineup that I end up throwing out there this week.
Should I build multiple lineups?
I get this question a lot and my answer is always the same regardless of the week. I understand the argument for multiple lineups and if you play only 50/50's I can make an argument for doing it as you get diversification doing it. I'm not going to get into the head to head vs 50/50 argument again, read the previous blogs if you want information on that, but what I will say is if you build multiple lineups, build a "core" of players. What this means is have several players the same on every cash lineup that you build, the reason behind this is that if you build 3 or more different rosters with no duplicate players you are essentially playing against yourself and the rake will win in the end.
Let's get into lineups-
The biggest question will be this week, spend up at running back or spend up at wide receiver?
QB-
DeShaun Watson is going to be the most popular guy this week and for good reason. You can read a full game matchup of this Houston Texans defense here, but ultimately the one thing you are going to want to know is he is averaging 35.1 FanDuel points per game over his last two outings and gets a very favorable matchup this week going up against the Browns secondary who have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Making matters even worse here are the quarterbacks that they have faced. Ben Roethlisberger (on the road), Joe Flacco, Jacoby Brissett, Andy Dalton, Josh McCown. None of these are great quarterbacks and the Browns have still allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Running Back-
This is where it gets tough. Do we spend up or spend down? Kareem Hunt and Leonard Fournette are the two guys at the top that I prefer this week as both are in ideal matchups. Hunt is going to be in every lineup I build this week as this Steelers defense has been abysmal against the run so far this season. That ultimately leaves the question do we spend up with Fournette who is coming off of a big week, or do we consider another running back?
Cheap options-
Mark Ingram- Mark Ingram is going to be popular this week, but I honestly think that this is a mistake. People are going to look at this and say that the Saints traded Adrian Peterson so Ingram should see a bigger workload. What if I told you that Peterson only saw 6 snaps last game? It is not as if Ingram is going to see a significant increase in workload and he is going against a very difficult matchup going up against the Lions who give up 2.2 yards per carry when Jarrad Davis is in the game.
Other Cheap Options
Jerick McKinnon
Samaje Perine
Buck Allen
Wide Receiver-
I have a ton to say about this week, so I am releasing this in two parts.
Bankroll Strategy-
This week it is very tempting for me to go bigger than usual as I am coming off of two consecutive very solid weeks and the bankroll is doing well. However, I actually think that I am going to dial it back just a little bit, and the reason I am considering doing that is as you'll see over the next couple of days there is really two strategies to building lineups this week it is spend up on running backs who have great matchups or spend up on receivers who have great matchups. This leaves me with a dilemma, on most weeks it is very easy to build my cash lineups based on my process, but at the moment I have about 12 cash lineups that are currently viable which means that there are more combinations that I feel could beat the lineup that I end up throwing out there this week.
Should I build multiple lineups?
I get this question a lot and my answer is always the same regardless of the week. I understand the argument for multiple lineups and if you play only 50/50's I can make an argument for doing it as you get diversification doing it. I'm not going to get into the head to head vs 50/50 argument again, read the previous blogs if you want information on that, but what I will say is if you build multiple lineups, build a "core" of players. What this means is have several players the same on every cash lineup that you build, the reason behind this is that if you build 3 or more different rosters with no duplicate players you are essentially playing against yourself and the rake will win in the end.
Let's get into lineups-
The biggest question will be this week, spend up at running back or spend up at wide receiver?
QB-
DeShaun Watson is going to be the most popular guy this week and for good reason. You can read a full game matchup of this Houston Texans defense here, but ultimately the one thing you are going to want to know is he is averaging 35.1 FanDuel points per game over his last two outings and gets a very favorable matchup this week going up against the Browns secondary who have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Making matters even worse here are the quarterbacks that they have faced. Ben Roethlisberger (on the road), Joe Flacco, Jacoby Brissett, Andy Dalton, Josh McCown. None of these are great quarterbacks and the Browns have still allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Running Back-
This is where it gets tough. Do we spend up or spend down? Kareem Hunt and Leonard Fournette are the two guys at the top that I prefer this week as both are in ideal matchups. Hunt is going to be in every lineup I build this week as this Steelers defense has been abysmal against the run so far this season. That ultimately leaves the question do we spend up with Fournette who is coming off of a big week, or do we consider another running back?
Cheap options-
Mark Ingram- Mark Ingram is going to be popular this week, but I honestly think that this is a mistake. People are going to look at this and say that the Saints traded Adrian Peterson so Ingram should see a bigger workload. What if I told you that Peterson only saw 6 snaps last game? It is not as if Ingram is going to see a significant increase in workload and he is going against a very difficult matchup going up against the Lions who give up 2.2 yards per carry when Jarrad Davis is in the game.
Other Cheap Options
Jerick McKinnon
Samaje Perine
Buck Allen
Wide Receiver-
Monday, October 9, 2017
Another Good Week
Cash games put up 119.44 thanks to a late push by Deandre Hopkins which was good enough to win 90% of my cash games. I was a little bit lucky this week in my head to head distribution compared to the 50/50's, as 119.44 would finish somewhere in the neighborhood of top 80% in 50/50's. This has to do to H2H people tend to be more conservative at times, as I faced nearly 100% Todd Gurley which in 50/50's it was only about 70% from the ones that I was tracking.
GPP's did not do so well as I had a lot of Todd Gurley.
Hopefully, you all had a good week.
Bankroll update-
Current Bankroll: $12,580
Cash Game in Play: 1,700 (13.5%)
Total Return- $2,736
Total Cash Profit/Loss- $1,036
Total GPP in Play: $150
Total GPP Return: $30
Total GPP Profit/Loss: ($120)
Total Profit: $916
New Bankroll: $13,496
GPP's did not do so well as I had a lot of Todd Gurley.
Hopefully, you all had a good week.
Bankroll update-
Current Bankroll: $12,580
Cash Game in Play: 1,700 (13.5%)
Total Return- $2,736
Total Cash Profit/Loss- $1,036
Total GPP in Play: $150
Total GPP Return: $30
Total GPP Profit/Loss: ($120)
Total Profit: $916
New Bankroll: $13,496
Sunday, October 8, 2017
Big H2H Breakdown
I don't hate his lineup, although I posted reasons why I could not be on Miami as they have had a few good matchups and have not been able to take advantage of them. Devante Parker going out with an injury obviously helps this lineup.
Will post updates as this progresses.
Small Change- Contest selection, Small GPP Strategy Piece
Marcus Mariota and Derek Carr are likely going to miss the games this week.
With that, I am switching to Baltimore's defense and downgrading Mason Crosby to Jake Elliott.
This week, I am dialing it back just a little bit compared to last week, as I think a lot of people are going to be on the same 5 RB/WR that I have so, therefore, it becomes a game, so it makes the games a contest against kickers/defenses/tight ends.
Current Bankroll: $12,580
Cash Game in Play: 1,700 (13.5%)
Total GPP in Play: $150
GPP Strategy-
For those of you who are looking from GPP advice from me this week, I have always approached this blog with an honest opinion on what I am doing. I am playing Bell/Gurley even though they will be extremely popular, I realize that for those of you who make a large number of lineups, it probably makes sense to have some sort of fade on them, but there are certain weeks where I just have to have certain guys in all of my lineups and for this week I am going with them.
John Lee and I had a very valuable discussion on GPP strategy on this week's Power Grid. He and I are very different players where I am primarily a cash game who plays a smaller number of GPP lineups, where he will play a larger number of lineups. https://youtu.be/E6QgFgZaQVk?t=1918
With that, I am switching to Baltimore's defense and downgrading Mason Crosby to Jake Elliott.
This week, I am dialing it back just a little bit compared to last week, as I think a lot of people are going to be on the same 5 RB/WR that I have so, therefore, it becomes a game, so it makes the games a contest against kickers/defenses/tight ends.
Current Bankroll: $12,580
Cash Game in Play: 1,700 (13.5%)
Total GPP in Play: $150
GPP Strategy-
For those of you who are looking from GPP advice from me this week, I have always approached this blog with an honest opinion on what I am doing. I am playing Bell/Gurley even though they will be extremely popular, I realize that for those of you who make a large number of lineups, it probably makes sense to have some sort of fade on them, but there are certain weeks where I just have to have certain guys in all of my lineups and for this week I am going with them.
John Lee and I had a very valuable discussion on GPP strategy on this week's Power Grid. He and I are very different players where I am primarily a cash game who plays a smaller number of GPP lineups, where he will play a larger number of lineups. https://youtu.be/E6QgFgZaQVk?t=1918
Saturday, October 7, 2017
Lineup Week 5- Initial Build
This is by no means final, as I've been a bit under the weather today. Here are my thoughts, check back here later today and early tomorrow for an update.
At the moment, here is where I am at using our Interactive Value Charts.
At the moment, here is where I am at using our Interactive Value Charts.
Friday, October 6, 2017
Initial Thoughts Heading into Week 5
Welcome to bye weeks, and this week is going to make things pretty difficult. As you'll see, there is a standard way that I am building my lineups this week and it is spending up at the position
Quarterback-
Dak Prescott is the guy this week for me at 7,700 as while he has struggled so far this year compared to last season, he has had a brutal schedule to start the season as he has faced Arizona, Denver, New York Giants, and the one relatively positive matchup he had was against the Rams last week in which he threw three touchdowns.
Here is a snapshot that I wrote in our rushing/passing matchups regarding Dak's play this season.
"So far this season, Dak Prescott has had a down season in comparison to his rookie campaign as his yards per attempt has dropped from 8.0 to 6.5, his completion percentage has decreased from 67.8% to 60.8% and his interception rate has increased from 0.8% to 2.1%. This ultimately means that Dak has either gotten worse, or that he has faced some difficult matchups and will ultimately improve. The answer is somewhere in the middle for Dak as while he has had a difficult schedule as every team he has faced is between 10-15 in terms of passing yardage allowed and is very talented, he is not playing as well as he did last year and a big part of that is the play of Dez Bryant and Dak trying to force the ball into Dez. Bryant has caught just 40% of the passes that have come his way."
Running Back-
Don't over think this one, start Le'Veon Bell, Jacksonville is allowing 7.9 yards per carry over their last three weeks and boasts one of the top secondaries in the league. This game has the game script of the Steelers running the ball a significant number of times in this game.
It's hard not to like what Todd Gurley is doing this season, he's in a positive matchup against a Seahawks defense that is without Cliff Avril in this game and the Seahawks are currently the sixth worst defense against the running back, so expect that the Rams will try to continue to give Gurley the ball in this game as he is averaging 31.5 touches over the last two weeks.
Wide Receiver-
This is where it gets tough.
My top three guys this week in no particular order are Dez Bryant, Jordy Nelson, and Deandre Hopkins. However with spending up at running back, we can't fit all of them in and maybe none of them in, so I need to continue to work on lineups that I feel comfortable with.
Some cheap options
Rishard Matthews (If Mariota plays)
Jaron Brown- Saw 12 targets last week is minimum price
Devante Parker- The Dolphins offense has been anemic so far this season, but the Titans defense has been even worse, at just $6,100 this could be a nice spot for Parker
Quarterback-
Dak Prescott is the guy this week for me at 7,700 as while he has struggled so far this year compared to last season, he has had a brutal schedule to start the season as he has faced Arizona, Denver, New York Giants, and the one relatively positive matchup he had was against the Rams last week in which he threw three touchdowns.
Here is a snapshot that I wrote in our rushing/passing matchups regarding Dak's play this season.
"So far this season, Dak Prescott has had a down season in comparison to his rookie campaign as his yards per attempt has dropped from 8.0 to 6.5, his completion percentage has decreased from 67.8% to 60.8% and his interception rate has increased from 0.8% to 2.1%. This ultimately means that Dak has either gotten worse, or that he has faced some difficult matchups and will ultimately improve. The answer is somewhere in the middle for Dak as while he has had a difficult schedule as every team he has faced is between 10-15 in terms of passing yardage allowed and is very talented, he is not playing as well as he did last year and a big part of that is the play of Dez Bryant and Dak trying to force the ball into Dez. Bryant has caught just 40% of the passes that have come his way."
Running Back-
Don't over think this one, start Le'Veon Bell, Jacksonville is allowing 7.9 yards per carry over their last three weeks and boasts one of the top secondaries in the league. This game has the game script of the Steelers running the ball a significant number of times in this game.
It's hard not to like what Todd Gurley is doing this season, he's in a positive matchup against a Seahawks defense that is without Cliff Avril in this game and the Seahawks are currently the sixth worst defense against the running back, so expect that the Rams will try to continue to give Gurley the ball in this game as he is averaging 31.5 touches over the last two weeks.
Wide Receiver-
This is where it gets tough.
My top three guys this week in no particular order are Dez Bryant, Jordy Nelson, and Deandre Hopkins. However with spending up at running back, we can't fit all of them in and maybe none of them in, so I need to continue to work on lineups that I feel comfortable with.
Some cheap options
Rishard Matthews (If Mariota plays)
Jaron Brown- Saw 12 targets last week is minimum price
Devante Parker- The Dolphins offense has been anemic so far this season, but the Titans defense has been even worse, at just $6,100 this could be a nice spot for Parker
Tuesday, October 3, 2017
Recapping Week 4
What a week, cash lineup put up 167.52 which won all but one h2h game.
Total invested Cash- $1,900
Total invested GPP- $150
Total invested- $2,050
Total Return Cash- $3,330
Total Return GPP- $600
Total Return- $3,930
Total Bankroll Start of Week $10,700
Total Return- $1,880
New Bankroll- $12,580
Total invested Cash- $1,900
Total invested GPP- $150
Total invested- $2,050
Total Return Cash- $3,330
Total Return GPP- $600
Total Return- $3,930
Total Bankroll Start of Week $10,700
Total Return- $1,880
New Bankroll- $12,580
Sunday, October 1, 2017
Much Better Week
Shaping up to be a good week if we can get a big second half from Eli.
Update: Would have been an unbelievable week if I could have gotten a big performance from Fitzgerald. Still should be winning almost 100% of my h2h and about 8x on GPP's
Update: Would have been an unbelievable week if I could have gotten a big performance from Fitzgerald. Still should be winning almost 100% of my h2h and about 8x on GPP's
Highlighting a head to head
Going to try to do this every week, which is to join a $535 h2h and break-down the opponents roster.
My roster is on the left, his/hers is on the right. I think it's a strong roster, I mentioned in the comments a few times that I like Dak, but didn't love him, not sure the reasoning behind both Dak and Elliott. I guess his theory is that he guarantees himself all of the Cowboys points.
The issue I have with it is that when Elliott is so highly owned, you really are taking just Dak on his own and Dak needs to perform on his own. We'll see how it turns out, I do like Rishard Matthews this week.
My roster is on the left, his/hers is on the right. I think it's a strong roster, I mentioned in the comments a few times that I like Dak, but didn't love him, not sure the reasoning behind both Dak and Elliott. I guess his theory is that he guarantees himself all of the Cowboys points.
The issue I have with it is that when Elliott is so highly owned, you really are taking just Dak on his own and Dak needs to perform on his own. We'll see how it turns out, I do like Rishard Matthews this week.
Making a Change
More and more negative news about Doug Baldwin has me concerned and moving off of Wilson.
Apologies for the late update, as I am updating this about 40 minutes before lock, but wanted to be transparent in what I am doing.
With no Michael Crabtree, I imagine this Raiders offense will struggle to move the ball, and the Buccaneers' defense is banged up which makes me like the Giants more and more.
Apologies for the late update, as I am updating this about 40 minutes before lock, but wanted to be transparent in what I am doing.
With no Michael Crabtree, I imagine this Raiders offense will struggle to move the ball, and the Buccaneers' defense is banged up which makes me like the Giants more and more.
Cash Game Lineup
I'm going big on this lineup, as the only position that I don't love is the Jets defense, but the value is great.
What I am likely going to do is have two lineups just to hedge myself and put Demaryius Thomas in about 20% of those lineups just in case Demaryius goes off instead of Sanders.
Current bankroll $10,700 (after the 1k h2h last week)
Cash game in play $1,900 (17.7%)
GPP in play, $150 (1.4%)
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