Heading down the final stretch Week 17

Here we are, week 17. The bankroll took a big hit last week as I decided to go big after several great weeks in a row. This is disappointing, as it wipes out several great weeks of rosters.

Current bankroll is down to $11,100 which is still positive for the year, but not where we want it to be.

Moving on to Week 17. My advice here is go small, as there are so few teams that have something to play for.

Below are some teams that have nothing to play for and have the biggest rest risk.

Dallas- Clinched #1 seed
New York Giants- Clinched #5 seed
Pittsburgh- Clinched #3 seed, have already stated Ben, Bell, Brown will not play in this game.
Houston- Clinched #4 seed, although Tom Savage still will be motivated for a good performance.


Non playoff-teams
Buffalo- Not a playoff team, but will be starting E.J. Manuel and appear that they want to lose this game.

A lot of the teams that are outside the playoffs are going to have mixed levels of motivation. Older teams such as Carolina, will likely be less motivated than a young team like Cleveland who has 18 rookies on their roster that will be fighting for their NFL careers.

Well that didn't work so well

Keeping this one short in sweet, but three things hurt today.

1) Not going Patriots defense was a critical error  and just a bad decision on my part. Thought I could get away with the Packers in a low over under but it didn't work that way.

2) Rob Kelley- This pick I would not have changed at all. The Redskins had four rushing touchdowns and Chris Thompson had a receiving touchdown. That's five touchdowns that could have went to Kelley, but it just didn't work out that way for one reason or another. These are the picks where you just trust your process and realize touchdowns are volatile.

3) Julio Jones was announced to be on a snap count about 3 minutes before kickoff and I couldn't get swapped to anything I like. Jones was a full participant in practice so it was a little surprising for that announcement to come out. This pick I probably should have forecasted if this was to happen and have a backup plan but due to the holidays just didn't do that this week.

$1k Double Up

Joined this contest today instead of a h2h

https://www.fanduel.com/games/17365/contests/17365-205467819/entries/1122688543/scoring?entry=1118080917

Week 16 Lineup

Week 16 Bankroll and Week 16 Thoughts

Great season it has been hopefully you have been following along and found this blog valuable. 

We started this season at $10,000 and I am currently at $12,100. 

Let's go big this week and put $3,500 in play including a $1k h2h that I will post here after lock for you to track along with me. After the last four weeks of great lineups, I feel great about this.

QB- Cash game- Matt Ryan

Matt Ryan- Matt Ryan is an excellent cash game play on this slate, as he is facing off against the worst passing defenses in the NFL this season in the Carolina Panthers who have allowed 274.8 yards per game. 

Andrew Luck- Andrew Luck is one of the safest play on the slate as this game is projected to be the highest game on the slate. Luck has thrown for 250+ and 2 TD's in four consecutive games. Oakland has allowed the seventh most passing yards on the season and with all the tough matchups that are out there this week for the top end quarterbacks, Luck seems the safest in cash. 

Tom Brady- Brady is projected to score the most amount of points this week, but the issue is that they are 17 point favorites in a game that the Jets have seemingly given up on this season. This game just seems as if it will be the Patriots getting off to an early lead and then LeGarrete Blount carries the load for most of the rest of the game. Brady is a GPP only play for me this week as you will be banking on Belichick to not stop scoring or the Jets to keep this game close.

RB-

Jordan Howard- 

Jordan Howard is going to be one of the most popular plays of the slate, but for me, I am fading Howard this week. Howard just does not score enough touchdowns to warrant starting him cash games. The reason here is Howard's price has risen to a point where he is no longer a must play and he has only scored a touchdown in four games this season. If I am paying up for a running back, I want more of a chance to score a touchdown than that. The matchup is positive as the Redskins are in the bottom ten defensively against running backs, but this is not the situation to start Howard.

LeSean McCoy-

LeSean McCoy is the top options for me this week as we saw him dominate the Browns last week and he gets to go against a Miami Dolphins team that is in the bottom three in the NFL in terms of rushing yards allowed.  McCoy should have very little issue getting to 100 yards in this game.

Rob Kelley- 

Rob Kelley is the premiere cheap option at the running back position this game. Kelley has scored four touchdowns in his last two games and is priced at just $5,800. In the Redskins last three wins, Kelley has gone for 88 total yards and 2 TD's, 137 total yards and 3 TD's and 97 rushing yards. At just $5,800 he is one of the top value plays on this slate.

WR-

Wide receiver is one of the hardest positions this week and this is going to determine your wins or losses. 

T.Y. Hilton

T.Y Hilton is my favorite wide receiver on this slate, as the Raiders have really struggled against the small shifty receivers like Hilton. Hilton struggled last week against a tough Vikings secondary, but should be in a nice spot to rebound in this game in a favorable matchup and is still priced less than some of the top options that have tough matchups.

Michael Crabtree

I want as much exposure to this Colts Raiders game as I can get, and with Amari Cooper likely drawing coverage against Vontae Davis, Michael Crabtree continues to be the top option for the Raiders in this projected high scoring game. This is a tiatuion where his price is simply too cheap and his red zone targets rank second in the NFL this season as he has 24 red zone targets on the season.

That's it for now, I will be adding more players throughout the night/morning as I continue to evaluation more and more players. I will continue to post my lineup tonight or in the morning.

Happy Holidays everyone

Free $1,000 Invite Only NFL Freeroll

As part of our launch of Basketballguys launch, we are hosting a $1,000 freeroll on FanDuel this week.

All you have to do is join our FREE email list for Basketballguys as it will be a special email invitational this weekend in tomorrow's mailing list.

Click the following link to be added to our free basketballguys mailing list.

Week 15 Cash Game Lineup

This one is probably going to draw a few questions, as I mentioned that I love Amari Cooper this week in GPP's, yet I am starting Michael Crabtree in my cash game lineups.

The answer is that it Michael Crabtree is significantly cheaper than Amari Cooper, and he has been more consistent over the last five weeks. I expect Crabtree will be extremely popular at just $6k, so with me going heavy on Cooper in GPP's due to the game theory aspect I described earlier, and if all of the production goes to Crabtree I will at least have a hedge in my cash game lineups. Just because I like Cooper does not mean I do not like Crabtree, the reason I like Cooper is that I believe he is going to be severely under-owned.

On this slate I'm paying up for known commodities in Bell/Johnson and even Ryan as I feel he is the safest QB on the board. At wide receiver, I am kind of just figuring the rest out as Matthews is a target hog which is always great for cash games, Crabtree is in a great matchup, and Taylor Gabriel with Julio Jones out is a must start in my opinion. I like Rudolph as the Colts have really struggled against the tight end position at times this season, and Kansas City's defense is facing Marcus Mariota who is from Hawaii and is going to be playing in 5 degree weather in Kansas City. Green Bay's defense is also an option as they're facing Newport Beach product Matt Barkley and I may do a 50/50 split in my cash game lineups

Week 15 Positional Breakdown- QB

QB-
Contests are going to be won and lost with the quarterback position this week as there are no clear cut answers at the quarterback position this week.

Matt Ryan- Cash 
The Falcons are projected to score 32.5 points in this game, and for as bad as the 49ers have been against the pass, they have been equally as bad against the quarterback position as they have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The problem is that Julio Jones is out, Mohammad Sanu is banged up, and the Falcons are 13.5 point favorites in this game. Ryan has a high floor, but his ceiling is relatively limited as if this game is a blowout, the Falcons will just run the ball a significant amount in this game. He is likely going to be my cash game quarterback, but I will not have a lot of him in GPP's.

Tyrod Taylor- GPP
Tyrod Taylor is an intriguing play in this game primarily because the Browns are such a bad team and LeSean McCoy is not 100% healthy. Taylor has ran for a touchdown in five of his last eight games and with the Browns having one of the worst defensive lines in the NFL, Taylor should have plenty of time to throw the ball and find holes as they lose contain due to poor gap assignments. It's tough to start him in cash, but he does offer some nice savings if you're willing to take a little bit of a risk.  He is a great GPP play this week.

Kirk Cousins- Cash/GPP
Kirk Cousins is facing a Carolina Panthers that has very little left to play for this season after a disappointing year after a Super Bowl run last year. The Panthers secondary has been one of the worst in the NFL this year giving up the third most yards per game at 272.4. We have seen Kirk Cousins' upside on Thanksgiving where he threw for 449 yards and three touchdowns. Cousins has struggled over the last two weeks on the road, but returns home this week which he has been much better at home over his career in a must-win game this week.

Aaron Rodgers-Off
I'm off Aaron Rodgers this week as living in Chicago it is going to blistering cold this weekend. The current forecast has this game as a -15-degree wind chill at kickoff tomorrow with 15 MPH winds.

Cam Newton- Off
I'm off players that have nothing left to play for and for me that is Cam Newton. Cam has already shown that he is not willing to dive for a fumble in the Super Bowl, so how much is he going to run when this team has nothing left to play for this season.

Favorite GPP Play This Week

Amari Cooper. Cooper has been really struggling, but Casey Hayward is likely going to be splitting matching up against both Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper which means that Cooper will get to face off against an undrafted rookie Trevor Williams for part of the game. This is a situation where a lot of people are going to be scared off as Hayward is one of the top corners in the league and the typical consensus is that the number one corner defends the number one wide receiver, but that is likely not going to be the case here.

Week 14 Lineup

Been going back and forth on whether to post my cash game lineup, as Kaepernick is in it, which scares the heck out of me, but it allows me to go up and get Brown and Johnson.

Heading Down the Final Stretch- Dominating the Last Few Weeks

We have to remember that these players are human and not just numbers on a page or a stat line read off in a projection. Projection models are great, but they use a baseline trend and then adjust for the matchup, what most of them do not do is they do not take into the external factors of the game. Whether it is players not wanting to get injured, coaches worried about their future, or just the overall lack of morale in the locker room, you want to start players who still care and play 100% to their abilities.

Towards the end of the season, this is a great time to incorporate human psychology into your lineups. Evaluate which teams are still going to care at this point, and then look at the track record of that team when they are in situations similar to the one that they are currently in. I typically avoid players who had success last season and are now in a situation where they have nothing to play for.

We typically avoid teams like Cleveland, Chicago, Los Angeles on this list, as they are all very young teams and their veterans have not been starting for several weeks. These players are still fighting for a job next year, so they see less of a drop off compared to established veterans.

Players/Situations to monitor and or avoid. This list will be changing week to week, but here is where we are currently at.
Avoid Carolina- Last year's Super Bowl runner-ups have nothing to play for in this season and Cam Newton has not had the same fire this year as in year's past. With the team still having four games left this could get ugly.

Monitor Arizona- If Arizona loses another game this season they are effectively out of the playoff hunt. This is an aging team that relies heavily on their veteran players and the excessive workload of David Johnson. If they are eliminated, Johnson's workload will likely decrease and you could see the team work more younger players in the mix looking forward to 2017.

Monitor Green Bay- Green Bay is still in the playoff mix, but with another loss or two they would be eliminated. If they are eliminated, Rodgers has been dealing with a hamstring injury all season, and Jordy Nelson is still returning from his ACL injury in 2015. This is likely a situation where if they are eliminated they start looking towards 2017.

Updates with Injury News- Marvin Jones Out

The Marvin Jones injury opens up a lot of opportunity for the rest of the offense. With that said I am going with Eric Ebron

Thoughts on Week 13- Cash Game Lineup

Apologize for getting this out so late, this has been a whirlwind of a week.

This is a weird slate, as everyone is going to be on LeVeon Bell and David Johnson. In my cash games though I believe that Jordan Howard will produce equally as one of those two in an ideal matchup against San Francisco. Going down to Howard allows me to go up to Julio Jones who is going up against Marcus Peters who likes to take chances and can get burned on deep plays.

Cash Game Lineups- Two Lineups.

I am playing the Sunday-Monday slate, because I like my team better as Jordan Matthews is in a terrific spot on FanDuel at just $5,600. I am playing a majority of my games on the Sunday/Monday slate, but felt obligated to post a Sun Only slate for you guys.

Sun-Mon

Sun Only- Stacking the Seahawks

Happy Thanksgiving- Cash Lineup

First of all thank you all for reading this blog and for those subscribers to Footballguys thank you as well. It is humbling to even have one person spend the time to read what I write. I am on cooking duty today so this is short and sweet but I owe it to you to produce my thoughts on this slate.

Here is my cash lineup with an explanation on why I went with what I did.

QB-
Cousins just fits. I would have preferred Ben over him, but I want Elliott, Bell, Brown as my stable of plays this week.

RB-
Rob Kelley was in consideration and for good reason after his monster performance on Sunday Night Football. He is cheap, but Bell/Elliott are two of the best running backs in the league.

WR-
Antonio Brown is the safest play on the board for cash games and was a must start for me this week. Golden Tate has been Detroit's number one receiver over the last few games as Marvin Jones has really struggled. There are not a ton of great options at the receiver position, but Tate should see a high enough volume to pay off his salary.

With Stefon Diggs looking like he will miss this game, Adam Thielen is likely going to draw the coverage of Darius Slay which is a big downgrade for Thielen, but a big upgrade for Cordarrelle Patterson who slides into the number two receiver for Minnesota.

I also considered Jamison Crowder here, but the volume that Tate should see should be greater than Crowder who saw only three targets last week. Crowder is a great GPP play and I will have a lot of exposure to him in those contests

TE-
Detroit is bottom five against opposing tight ends and with Stefon Diggs looking unlikely to play, Rudolph should see more targets.

Def-
Steelers against Tolzien are the way to go as they're cheap and no reason not to go with them.

K-
Dan Bailey is seemingly automatic at home. Any of the kickers are in decent spots in this slate, but I had a little extra cash and decided to spend up. The Cowboys are one of the highest projected scoring teams along with Pittsburgh and ultimately the tiebreaker between Bailey and Boswell was that the Cowboys are at home and the Steelers go for two on extra points occasionally limiting Boswell's point total.

What Could Have Been- Week 11 Recap

I'll be honest, I wrote off losing a large majority of my cash lineups within the first five minutes of the NFL slate yesterday due to the A.J. Green injury. My reaction was about the same as this cheerleader who was more focused on the injury than doing her job. Immediately, I started scrambling to find out how many people owned A.J. Green in my head to heads. The good news is that he was 30% owned. Even better news was that the rest of my lineup was terrific.

Ultimately it is difficult to say what could have been if A.J. Green had not gotten hurt as it is not as simple as adding 15-20 points in GPP's and seeing where you would have finished. At the end of the day, I managed to be slightly positive making $55 on $1,400 in play. If he would have gotten 10 points, I would have been +600 but that's how life goes sometimes.

Free Stuff- Cross Sport Survivor

FanDuel is running a $2 multi-sport survivor. It is a three-week contest that has NFL this week, NBA on Tuesday and NFL on Thursday.

As part of this, purchase a hoopsguys.com subscription and I will reimburse you with one survivor entry. If you're an existing hoopsguys subscriber this works for you as well.  Just send n email to knotts@hoopsguys.com with your entry and subscription information

Week 11 Cash Game Lineup

I like this lineup, the one risk here is Doug Baldwin. We saw him come on last season around this time and the expectation is that the Seahawks will go with a pass heavy offense similar to what we have seen the past few weeks. Baldwin will be popular, and has multiple touchdown upside.

Week 10 Review- Worst week of my career

A few of you have asked why I did not post my lineup until after lock when I posted it at 1:04 EST. Here's the scoop, the goal was not to hide my lineup or gain a competitive advantage over the people who read this blog. I have posted my lineups before lock since week 3 or 4 when a few of you asked me to do so.

The simple answer is this. I hated the lineup, and did not want any of you to think that I was endorsing this lineup. There was a pit in my stomach regarding having you all play this lineup and I could not justify posting it. I played about half of what I normally do, because it was just one of those weeks that everyone has where you get stuck with players you don't love.

I had $620 in play this week, and lost $580 which is the worst week of my career.

I have always tried to be open and honest with you guys and I will be posting my lineup Saturday night/Sunday morning as I have done for most of the season.

This blog has gotten over 50,000 views since we started it which is pretty cool for just a guy posting about his DFS ups and downs.

Hate this lineup

My cash game lineup is below, and I'm not happy about it.

Good luck everyone

Mid-Term Grade and How to Apply This to Week 10

So far this season has been up and down. Currently, my bankroll is at $11,400 largely due to huge weeks during weeks 1,2,7,9. It seems like when I have been good I have been great, when I have missed, I have not gotten killed which is the end goal.

So how do I evaluate my performance so far this season? I give myself a C+ so far this year. A 11.4% return on my total bankroll is not bad but it certainly can be better. I haven't hit on any GPP's this season which while I am not a big GPP player compared to most, I still should be doing better on the GPP side of things.

Here are my initial notes to myself. I start to solidify my process on Saturday, but just like to take a quick pass at the slate and see what stands out to me.

QB-
Some key trends heading into this week. Aaron Rodgers has been terrific and is throwing the ball at a higher rate than he ever has before. He is expensive, but is the top option for me this week. Heading down the list, I am having a really difficult time finding a quarterback that I am falling in love with. As much as I like Marcus Mariota he has not been running as much as he did earlier in the season and is dealing with a sprained ankle. Roethlisberger is intriguing, but is he 100% healthy? Brady at home on Sunday night is a great play, but facing Seattle is a little bit scary.

RB-
Start David Johnson this week do not over think it. He is the Ezekiel Elliott of last week and is one of the top plays of the week. Melvin Gordon has been a monster, and is in a decent spot at home against Miami. LeVeon Bell is extremely consistent. Seems like a spend up week at running back.

WR-
Wide receiver is the most difficult decision of the day for me. Yes, I like Evans, but he is too expensive for me as he is only $100 less than Antonio Brown. Jordan Matthews at $5,900 is intriguing, J.J. Nelson is intriguing at $5,600 but how much are they going to throw the ball or need to throw the ball? Chris Conley is getting a lot of hype, but I can't buy into it. Bears wide receivers, Jeffrey or Meredith? Have to go cheap at one of the wide receivers in order to spend up elsewhere.

TE-
Loving Zach Miller this week with the return of Jay Cutler we saw Miller/Cutler connect against a good Minnesota team. Antonio Gates is also interesting if Hunter Henry sits out.

Defense-
Love Jacksonville's price, as they have been playing much better so far this year.

Kicker-
Catanzaro will be popular, but he will be kicking a lot of PAT's not field goals. Liking Sturgis, Bryant, and Lambo this week in that order.

Week 9 Cash Game Lineup

Week 8 Cash Game Lineup

The Blog is Back- Looking Towards Week 8- Hoopsguys Announcement

It's been a crazy week for me. For those of you who haven't heard yet, I was fortunate enough to be asked to manage a new site called Hoopsguys.com which is a sister site to Footballguys.com. We will be 100% free up until Thanksgiving. We have a great team of 15 staffers who are going to be contributing, so check us out if you are looking for some NBA DFS advice.

Now let's head into week 8. The pricing is really soft so how do we deal with this? It's really simple, we need to join more cash games and stick with the H2H strategy and let other people make mistakes.  With how soft the pricing is, it is not a great GPP week, as you typically want to be contrarian in GPP's and on a point/dollar basis it is difficult to not start some of the top end guys.

This week I am making two cash game lineups, the reason for this is there are so many good cash game plays that it's hard to isolate just one lineup.

QB-
Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston.

I am leaning with Luck and Ryan, even though I really like Winston and had him as my #1 guy earlier in the week, the issue is that the volume that Jacquizz Rodgers is seeing is hurting the Tampa Bay passing game. I will stack Winston with Evans in some GPP's.

RB- 
Devonte Booker- Start him in all of your cash lineups, he is too cheap not to start this week.

Other Options-
Spencer Ware
Ezekiel Elliott
Christine Michael

WR- 
Mike Evans is the top option on FanDuel. His price dropped after last weeks two touchdown performance.

Other options
Julio Jones- He can easily be fit into your lineup with the weak pricing.
Amari Cooper
Brandon Marshall
Larry Fitzgerald

TE-
Gary Barnidge- With Josh McCown starting this week, Barnidge was the #2 overall tight end last year when McCown was the starting quarterback. He is a target hog, and should easily reach value as his price is depressed from all of the different quarterbacks that have played for the Browns this year.

Other options-
Jimmy Graham- Revenge Game
Kyle Rudolph
Rob Gronkowski

Big Week

I had previously lost two consecutive $270 H2H contests, so decided to go for broke and join a $535 h2h, here is how it ended up.

Change in cash game lineup

Going with Jack Doyle just based on blocking opponents who are going to start him as he seems to be the most popular tight end on the board this week.

Cash Game Lineup

Going Kendall Wright is a bit of a scary thing, but with the news of LeSean McCoy playing, it forced me into not starting Gillislee and going up to Spencer Ware. Wright had a big game last week and is finally healthy as he saw 9 targets last week.

GPP Core-
Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Jacquizz Rodgers

Chalk Week

This week is going to be full of the same composition of cash game lineups. With that said be careful, as in many cases it could come down to a kicker or a defense and which one you choose. I will be posting my cash game lineup and my GPP core later tonight or early tomorrow.

QB-
Tom Brady
Geno Smith
Matt Ryan

I am leaning Brady here, just because he has been on an absolute tear this year since coming back from suspension. Pittsburgh is currently allowing the third most passing yards this season as they have allowed 293 yards.

Ryan will be popular as they have the highest projected total for the day, but the running attack scares me off of him compared to Brady.

I don't see a reason to have to go with a player like a Geno Smith or a Colin Kaepernick this week. There is enough value out there that you can spend up at the QB position and make someone else make the mistake of going cheap.

RB-
There are three running backs who everyone is going to be on this week and for good reason.

The first two are Jacquizz Rodgers and Mike Gillislee who are going to be extremely popular due to their price and their opportunity, both are facing elite matchups in San Francisco and Miami. I prefer Rodgers over Gillislee as we have seen the production from Rodgers last week

The other way to go for running back is Demarco Murray. We all saw what Lamar Miller was able to do against the Colts defense that has really struggled against the run this season and for the last several seasons against Chuck Pagano.

One key thing to note here is that if Jamaal Charles is inactive. Spencer Ware jumps up to a must play over Mike Gillislee for me. 

WR-
Mike Evans and Julio Jones are going to be the two most popular wide receivers this week. I am likely going to be off of Julio as at $9,200 on FanDuel he is just too expensive for me to trust as he has been inconsistent this year. He only has only two games over 100 yards and while the upside is there he draws a tough matchup against Casey Heyward who is ranked as one of the best cover corners in the NFL.

TE-
For me, I am figuring out a way to get Rob Gronkowski in my lineups this week he is clearly in his own tier this week and possibly the rest of the season as long as he stays healthy.

Week 6- Total Win-Loss by Week

Here is a breakdown of week by week my H2H record. Let me put this frankly. 54% isn't good enough. We are aiming to be at a 60% rate to grow the bankroll. Started off hot, but the last two weeks have been a little bit of a struggle to get things going.

I am going to continue to do the big head to heads as I think people enjoy those, this isn't something that I would typically do if I'm trying to grow the bankroll, but this also has an entertainment piece to the blog as well, so feel it is only right to have you guys track along at home to my roster compared to others playing big h2h games. We are going to go with the martingale strategy for the next two weeks on these, also something not recommended, but I am down $540 in these two contests, so I am going to be entering a $535 H2H this week. If I lose that I will be entering a $1k H2H the following week. Not something that is recommended, but it will keep it interesting.

Week	Win	Loss	%
1	95	7	93%
2	78	42	65%
3	59	81	42%
4	84	56	60%
5	49	91	35%
6	54	86	39%
Total	419	363	54%

New Bankroll- $9,324

Total Loss- ($676)

Overall considering $540 of this loss is built into two $270 h2h contests, I am not that worried trust the process and let's get back out there.

Cash Game Lineup and $270 H2H

Going back to the well again with a $270 H2H. It looks like we have very similar lineups where he has Kelvin Benjamin and Cameron Meredith and a different defense, where I have Michael Thomas and T.Y. Hilton and the Giants Defense.

I used this cash lineup in all of my lineups this week.

Weather Tomorrow- Follow the Money

You're going to hear a lot about weather tomorrow. Most of it is just smoke and mirrors, however here is how I adjust to the weather. If Vegas cares and lowers the Over/Under, I care. Otherwise, I don't adjust how I am playing at all.

Here is how I track where the over/under opens and where it is currently at.
http://www.covers.com/odds/football/nfl-spreads.aspx

Week 6 GPP Core and Thoughts Heading Into the Week

Thoughts Heading into week 6.

GPP Core-
This week I am only going with a two-man core with Cam Newton and Delanie Walker. The reason for this is that I fully trust that these two are going to pay off their salary. With that said, I will have a lot of exposure to LeSean McCoy, Demarco Murray, Buffalo Defense, I just won't be 100% which is typically what I consider my core.

The reason is that pricing this week forcing you into certain players, so if I was to lock into Cam, Murray, McCoy, Walker, Buffalo. I would not be able to get as many combinations wide receivers that I like this week.

QB-

Cam Newton-
Cam Newton's concussion is going to scare people off this week, as they're going to gravitate towards Brady and Roethlisberger on the high end and Hoyer/Alex Smith on the low end. This is a perfect opportunity for Cam Newton this season for both cash games and GPP's. In the NFL, if you enter the concussion protocol they are not going to clear you until you are 100% healthy. Last season, Cam dominated the Saints accounting for 646 yards passing, 7 touchdowns and 82 yards rushing with a touchdown. This is projected to be the highest scoring game on the day, and the concussion will scare people off, but I am going to be all in on Cam this week.

Brian Hoyer
Hoyer has thrown for 300+ yards and 2+ touchdowns in his last three games and is going to be popular this week. However, I think most people are just looking at the matchup and seeing Jacksonville and not putting any additional research into it. The Jaguars defense against the pass has actually been the third best in the NFL this year and they have faced Aaron Rodgers, Phillip Rivers, and Andrew Luck. Hoyer is not in this class of quarterback, so I will be fading him this week.

Running Back
This is a week that you want to find a way to pay up for running backs as the top three running backs all have elite matchups. Deciding between Demarco Murray, LeVeon Bell, and LeSean McCoy is going to be the real decision this week in cash games. This makes it really difficult to fill out a roster, so if you want to spend up on a top end WR, you could look at Ryan Mathews in a great matchup against the Redskins, but Mathews is always susceptible to someone stealing carries or getting injured.

Wide Receiver
This position is really tough this week, as the high-end guys are too expensive to use such as Antonio Brown or A.J. Green. There are some very intriguing plays in good matchups in the mid-range with Larry Fitzgerald, Marvin Jones, Kelvin Benjamin, and T.Y. Hilton. I think T.Y Hilton is a GPP play only, as he is too boom/bust every week even with Moncrief out for me. He had the highest bust rate of any top wide receiver in our preseason coverage at about 40% of his games with 10 points or less over the last three seasons.

On the low-end, there are a few names that will allow you to save some salary this week. Michael Thomas, Tavon Austin, and Cameron Meredith. Thomas is coming off of back to back touchdown games, and facing a Panthers secondary that is one of the worst in the NFL. Meredith is stepping in for the injured Kevin White and saw 12 targets last week. Tavon Austin is averaging 9 targets per week this year, and just hasn't found the end-zone. If you can guarantee nine targets from a player at his price, I think he is a very intriguing play, and hopefully finds the end-zone on a run or a pass.

Tight End
Find a way to pay up for Delanie Walker this week. Cleveland has allowed 21 receptions, five touchdowns, and 257 yards in the last two games against tight ends. This has the making for a big Delanie Walker game this week

Heading Into Week 6- Breaking the Slump

Three down weeks in a row is  a slump. However, week 4 I was profitable in cash games, which was offset by losses in GPP so not sure if it is an official slump. I feel as if my process is still the same one as I have used over a large sample size and three bad weeks in a row isn't going to deter me from my process.

Last week I only hit 35% of my cash games which is a season low. However thankfully, a few GPP's where I had Martellus Bennett saved me so my total loss from last week was only $272.

New Bankroll- $9,777
Total Loss for the year- ($233)

Lesson Learned- Trust Your Process

After Monday's game, I don't want to hear the name, Derek Anderson. It wouldn't have helped me in my big H2H contest, but 12 points would have gotten me close to breaking even. Instead it is another poor week, and this one is all my fault.



I got suckered into group think this week and changed my cash game rosters at the last minute to be more chalky. If you look at my value consensus rankings almost all of them were on point. I had Brady as my top QB, Jordan Howard as my second running back ahead of Jerick McKinnon, had Ezekiel Elliott as my #4 running back, and Zach Miller as my #1 tight end, Brandon McManus as my #1 kicker. Did I use any of Brady, Howard, Elliott, Miller, McManus? Not a single one was used in my cash game lineups.


Instead, I play, Deandre Washington who I didn't have ranked, A.J. Green who I didn't have ranked, Odell Beckham who I had ranked 10th, and Zach Ertz who I had ranked 8th at the position and the results showed as I only won 35% of my H2H contests this week which simply isn't good enough.

So what is the lesson here, and how do I learn/grow from it. First, trust your process, I had a little bit too much time this weekend reading into what other people thought across the industry. I realized that Washington, Beckham, Green, Ertz were going to be popular, and even though I didn't have him on my list I felt compelled to play defensive and start them instead of trusting my process. I spend 20+ hours a week on my analysis and projections and for me to be so easily swayed by what the industry thinks is a huge mistake on my part.

The saving grace here was Martellus Bennett who saved me in a lot of GPP formats. I mentioned him on the podcast that we do as my top guy this week and had him ranked as my #2 TE (although it didn't show up on the consensus ranking due to a coding error)

Footballguys Power Grid

DFS Round Table

Let's Have Some Fun- $270 H2H

Decided to throw caution out the window today and join a $270 H2H on top of all of the other cash game lineups that I had. The reason being I loved Derek Anderson this week and was hoping the opponent wouldn't start him which it worked out now we just need the score to reflect that.

Cash Game Lineup

This week I am only playing the Sunday Monday slate for cash games as I love Derek Anderson. Much like a few weeks ago where I had to have Drew Brees. For Anderson to pay off his salary he only realistically needs 10-12 points which should be able to be accomplished rather easily in a great matchup against Tampa Bay.

Deandre Washington is a great spot here this week as he fills in for the injured Latavius Murray. He will be splitting time with Jalen Richard, however my expectations are that Washington will get a majority of the carries and Richard will stay in the change of pace type running back.

Heading Into Week 5- Attacking the Quarterback Position

There are really only three quarterbacks that I am looking at this week as I make my cash game lineups and GPP lineups.

Tom Brady-
This one is more of a narrative than anything else, as while the Patriots are heavy favorites in this game, Brady hasn't practiced with his team since the preseason, Cleveland Browns Stadium has been a little bit tough compared to elite quarterbacks, as Brees, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees have not thrown for 300 yards or 3+ touchdowns at the Browns stadium. There are likely a number of factors due to this such as the wind coming off the lake, but also the blowout factor where the Browns just don't put up enough of a fight to compete and the Patriots run the ball in the second half. We saw this last week where Kirk Cousins came out early throwing the ball and then they ran the ball a lot with Matt Jones once they got out to a 14-0 lead.

Ben Roethlisberger-
Roethlisberger is projected to score the most points this week in my projections. He has a dream matchup against the Jets who have allowed 286 passing yards per game so far this season and are the second best in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, which creates a dynamic where the Steelers are going to pass early and often in this game. Adding to the great matchup is Ben Roethlisberger at home. At home, over the last three seasons, Ben is averaging 2.9 touchdown passes per game.

Derek Anderson-
Derek Anderson will be starting at quarterback for the Carolina Panthers and is only $5,000 on FanDuel. This is a great spot for Anderson, as his price allows you to spend up for a lot of top plays this week. Anderson showed that he is a more than capable backup in the league as he threw for 172 yards in just 11 minutes last week against the Falcons filling in for Cam Newton. He has a huge arm which should open up opportunities for Ted Ginn and Kelvin Benjamin on deep balls. Interceptions are a concern for Anderson as he threw two in just 11 minutes last week, but for him to pay off his salary he 10-12 FanDuel points for cash games which is 250 yards and no touchdowns. It seems very likely that he will pay off value and makes it tough not to use him in cash games. If you do not want to use him, play the Sunday Only slate.

Cash Game Selection-Head to Head vs 50/50's

Cash game Selection

For those that have been following along with the blog so far this year, you'll know that I mostly join head to head contests as my choice of contests for cash games. I have explained it a little bit in a few different posts but have not dedicated an entire post to it yet this season. The primary reason that I join head to head contests is to mitigate the risk caused by 50/50's and double ups. In 50/50's and double ups no matter how many you join it is an all or nothing strategy each week.


There is nothing worse than finishing in the 49th percentile of lineups in a 50/50 or Double Up and losing almost all of your money invested in a given week. Having this happen a few weeks in a row back in 2014, where I just missed the cut line in my 50/50's, I decided to make a change in the way that I am playing. I am able to get more of my bankroll in play each week if I join a high number of H2H games as the overall risk to my bankroll is lower since it is not an all or nothing strategy. Ultimately the downside of the decreased risk is the decreased upside, if I have a lineup that is in the 80th percentile, I am not going to win all of my contests, I am likely only going to win 80% of my contests, where a 50/50 I would win all of my contests. Ultimately, I am ok with the decreased upside for the decreased risk, as the goal is to grow the bankroll and not let a few bad weeks kill your season.

Week 4 Recap- What Went Right, What Went Wrong

Week 4 was one that was up and down. Cam Newton leaving early in the game with a concussion really hurt. Also, I posted two lineups last week, one which was my optimal lineup had four players from the Chargers vs Saints game, and I should have listened to my projections, as I swapped Hunter Henry and Travis Benjamin (20.9 FanDuel points) for Dennis Pitta and Quincy Enunwa (12.2 FanDuel points). This was the difference between a great day and a mediocre day. This was the second week in a row that I was just slightly negative. Hopefully next week we get back on track.

Starting Bankroll- $10,087
Cash Games Entered-1,400
Cash Game Return- $1,512
Total Cash Game Return- $112

GPP Invested- $150
GPP Return- $0

Total Week 4 Return on Investment (38)
New Bankroll- $10,049

What went right?
Le'Veon Bell-
He's back, and it paid off if you started him in his first week back from suspension. The Steelers got Le'Veon the ball early and often in this game, and he looked great. Bell had 178 total yards in this game, and while he was unable to find the end zone he added five receptions for a total of 20.3 FanDuel points. Bell is one of if not the most versatile backs in the league and should be considered in every format every week. There was some concern heading into the week regarding Deangelo Williams taking snaps away from Bell, however, Bell was able on the field for 52 of 59 snaps for the Steelers while Williams was only out there for 17 snaps last week.

Melvin Gordon-This is a situation where it is hard to say that I got it right, but the end result was a running back who reached 2.75x his value. It might be time to come to reality and just realize that Melvin Gordon as a running back is the same guy as he was last year, he is just scoring touchdowns at an unsustainable rate as he is on pace for 24 touchdowns this year. This was a premiere matchup, and while Gordon had 79 total yards, he only had 36 yards rushing on 19 carries which is scary going forward for the former first round pick.

Antonio Brown-Antonio Brown could have had a monster game, but the game script just didn't go his way, as he only had five targets all of which were in the first half of this game. However, he scored two touchdowns early and that was enough to get to 2x his value.

What went wrong?
Cam Newton celebrating while going for a two-point conversion early in the fourth quarter. To make matters worse, this would have been an unbelievable garbage time situation and Derek Anderson took advantage of this as he threw for 172 yards and two touchdowns in just a quarter of play.

Cole Beasley ended up ok, but only due to a long reception at the end of the

Washington Defense-The Browns offense maybe better than I have been giving them credit for being. This is the second straight week I have tried to pick on Cody Kessler, and they have scored 20+ in each of these two games.

My GPP core-
Kirk Cousins started the game off hot with two touchdowns on his first two drives and looked like he was going to have a great game. The team took a 14-0 lead and then shifted to running the ball on Cleveland and allowed the Browns to climb back into it in a game that the Browns should have won. This was disappointing, as it looked as if the Redskins kept their foot on the gas, Cousins had the making of a huge game.

Deandre Hopkins had his worst statistical game since his rookie season in 2013. This is a Titans team that allowed a receiver to go for over 100 yards in each of their previous three games, and Hopkins was only able to have one reception for four yards.

Down Goes Cam

Cam Newton leaves with a concussion on a two-point conversion. It was a completely unnecessary play as he tried to showboat and walk into the end zone. He currently has 15.6 points.

Going to need some help, the good news for me is that he was owned in about 70% of my H2H contests

Week 4 Cash Game Lineup- Good Luck Everybody

The first lineup that is posted is the lineup that I will be playing in cash. The second lineup is my optimal lineup based on projections, however, I will not be playing that one in cash due to having too much exposure in the San Diego game.

Optimal lineup, but I won't be using this due too much exposure in the SD game

Week 4 Notes and Thoughts- Cash Lineup and GPP Plays

I am going to start posting my cash game lineup before lock, this will likely be posted on Saturday Night or Sunday Morning before lock so be sure to check that out as part of your lineup setting process.

Cash Game Strategy

Quarterback-
Cam Newton or Kirk Cousins-

These are really the only two that I am considering this week for cash games. Expect Cam to have a big game after really struggling last week against Minnesota. He goes up against an Atlanta Falcons defense that is averaging allowing 30 points per game. The Panthers are projected to score 28 points in this game.

Cousins is a guy who is a little bit risky but allows you to save some money this week. In games that the Redskins won by at least a touchdown or more last year, Cousins had 16 touchdown passes in 5 games. Cousins has averaged 330 yards per game passing this season, and the question is only whether or not he is going to score the touchdowns needed to pay off his salary as he only has 3 passing touchdowns so far this season. He is a great GPP play this week and if you need the savings he is a good cash play.

Running Back

Melvin Gordon-

Most of us watched Monday Night Football this week and saw just how bad this New Orleans rush defense is. Melvin Gordon has been significantly better compared to last year. Melvin Gordon has scored a touchdown in each game this season and I expect him to do this again this week. 

Other top plays-

Le'Veon Bell- When Le'Veon Bell returned last year from his suspension, he they fed him the ball early and often. Look for Bell to return this week and have 

Ezekiel Elliott- We all saw what Christine Michael was able to do last week against this San Francisco defense. Now Elliott who had 32 touches last week takes on this team. There is a little bit of concern with Dez likely missing this game that they'll load the box to stop Elliott similar to what they did to Gurley in week one.

Jordan Howard- as a punt play only, I like him better on PPR sites.

Wide Receiver

Terrelle Pryor- A wide receiver who saw 14 snaps at quarterback and 14 passing targets last week. Also, news that he won't be shadowed by Josh Norman is a big bump for Pryor in this game. Cash game-play is all about consistency, and for him to get those snaps as a quarterback will get him guaranteed points that other wide receivers won't get.

Other Considerations

Antonio Brown- If you can fit him in, play him very week

Cole Beasley- With Dez Bryant out, Cole Beasley becomes the guy that you want here in Dallas, he has been great so far this season and has found an instant connection with Dak Prescott. He has yet to find the end zone but I expect he has a good chance this week.

Quincy Enuwa- The matchup is tough going up against Seattle, but the Jets are going to have to throw the ball in this game, and with Eric Decker out, Enuwa should see enough targets to pay off his salary that has yet to increase. So far this season he has 25 targets in three games, and that should increase this week with Decker out.

Any WR in the SD/NO game- This is projected to be the highest scoring game of the week and possibly of the year based on Vegas totals. Having a share of a wide receiver whether it be Cooks, Benjamin, Tyrell Williams is definitely in play.

GPP core this week- Only going with 3 in the core, as there are a lot of players that I like this week at various positions.
Kirk Cousins
Deandre Hopkins
Josh Lambo

Head to Head Selection Strategy

I have received a number of questions about how I select opponents in my head to head games. Here is a quick strategy guide. If there are any questions let me know or follow me on Twitter

How do I select games?
In other sports, I keep track of my win/loss record against every opponent that I face so I can try to tell which players are the one's that I want to target or avoid. For football, I really don't do this, as the number of opponents is so much larger that it makes it difficult. Also, there is so much more information available in cash games for football so most people can become skilled very quickly utilizing very inexpensive subscription services such as Footballguys.com and others. What I do for football is I like to just take on a number of games at a certain price point that allows me to do so. For the purposes of this blog, I am playing $5 and $10 h2h games and playing up to the budget that I post each week which typically is around 100-150 head to head games. This is obviously extreme and not what most people have time to enter that many head to head contests.

If you are playing less than 20-30 contests per week, I would likely just play 50/50's as at that point you deal with too much weekly variance and don't get a true statistical view of the full range of outcomes. Essentially you can get unlucky have a great lineup and then face better lineups.

Why don't I post games?
The short answer is just time. If I were to post all of my contests at once, I don't want more exposure against any one single player than I need to have. With FanDuel not having a matchup blocker, this poses a risk for me that I could end up with more exposure against one opponent than I want to have. Also, as someone who posts a lot of what I am thinking on a week to week basis on this blog, I have very little incentive to make my contests available for people to use my picks to block me of my top plays. 

Don't be afraid of experts
If someone is posting their strategy for the week and you disagree with some of their top plays on that day, then join their head to head. This is going to be unpopular amongst some of my peers, but not all of the experts are profitable players. If you are reading this, you are likely familiar with some of the top players in DFS, and potentially even read some of their work. If you were against Drew Brees or Ezekiel Elliott last week and I posted games, then take my games. To be honest, I don't have a ton of time to read other experts writing as I have my own writing to work on, but I find that reading others helpful in that I know their mindset and their thinking. 

Week 3 Recap- Disappointing Week

Took me a day to get over the week one loss. I was 1.2 points away from Drew Brees on Monday night from breaking even. Overall I ended up with my first loss of the season, but we will be talking some great strategies this week as we look to rebound based on this disappointing result.

Cash Games
Total Entered- $1,400
Total Return- $1,062 (42% of H2H games won)

One key thing here is that had I entered all 50/50 games I would not have made the cut and would have lost all of my cash games. This is the exact reason why I play H2H over 50/50's is for weeks such as this one where my lineup was ok, but still in the bottom half of lineups.

GPP's
Total Entered- $150
Total Return $165
Total Bankroll Impact $15

Starting Bankroll- $10,410
Week 3 Net profit/loss- -$323
New Bankroll- $10,087

What worked

Drew Brees
My strategy to start Drew Brees was exactly what I wanted. Playing the Sunday/Monday slate I had predicted that Brees' ownership would be lower than it should be in cash games. He was only owned in about 15% of my head to head contests
Ezekiel Elliott-
I wrote up Elliott as my top running back play, and he put up 160 total yards with two receptions. Dallas had three rushing touchdowns on the day, but unfortunately, Elliott did not score a touchdown. The analysis was solid here, as touchdowns can be volatile from week to week, but a player who had 32 touches for 160 yards is a guy who you want in your cash game lineups
Antonio Brown
Antonio Brown is an absolute stud, start him every week in cash games. He had a poor week two, but he is a guy who you just put in your lineup to start the week.
Michael Thomas in GPP's
I wrote up Michael Thomas in my week 3 preview, as Willie Snead was questionable/doubtful heading into the week. On FanDuel with no late swap, his ownership was much lower than it should have been. This saved my night as I had written off a lot of my GPP lineups due to being so far back. At $5,300 Thomas stepped up with 7 receptions for 71 yards and a touchdown.

What didn't work

Tajae Sharpe
Heading into the work, I told myself that even if Delanie Walker was out, I was not going to start Tajae Sharpe even though the matchup was great. However, on Sunday, I decided to go with put Sharpe in my cash game lineup over Michael Thomas as I didn't have a great feeling on Willie Snead's health. In hindsight, Michael Thomas would have been the right play and then spending the money elsewhere.

Travis Benjamin
I was all in on the Chargers offense with both Melvin Gordon and Christine Michael. With Danny Woodhead and Keenan Allen being out for the year, I felt the offense was going to run just those two players similar to the Steelers with Bell and Antonio Brown. This just didn't materialize, as Benjamin had 82 yards, he needed a touchdown to pay off his salary in cash games at $7,000 as he is not a high-volume receiver.

Ryan Succop
Kickers are so volatile at times. Oakland had given up the most field goals over the last two years and only gave up one in this game.Mariota had some critical turnovers in field goal range which hurt him.

Starting Melvin Gordon over Christine Michael
This was a mistake as I overvalued the 49ers defense and stop Michael similar to what they did in week one to Todd Gurley. Melvin Gordon wasn't bad, as he had 15.8 points, but for the same price Christine Michael put up 24.1. This made it tough as a lot of people had Michael based on the news of Thomas Rawls missing the game.